Suchergebnisse

AbstractWe develop a simple forecast‐anchoring model to explain and predict the mean and variance of observed inventory order decisions in a newsvendor problem. The model assumes that people employ a two‐step decision heuristic. In the first step, a behavioral bias may gravitate the decision maker's point forecast toward a random forecast versus a constant unbiased forecast. In the second step, a behavioral bias of the same magnitude may cause the decision maker to treat the point forecast as if it is the mean of potential demand, and then make an upward or downward adjustment depending on the underage and overage costs. We evaluate the performance of this descriptive forecast‐anchoring model across five experimental newsvendor data sets. First, we fit the model to a setting with uniform demand. We then use the corresponding estimates to generate predictions in a secondary data set with uniform demand, as an out‐of‐sample test. We proceed to fit the model to three additional newsvendor data sets, two with normal demand and one with asymmetric two‐point demand. In all cases, the model predicts the mean and variance of inventory order decisions well. We further investigate the profit implications under the forecast‐anchoring model and find that the predictions match well with the experimental data. Through improved predictions, the model can help upstream supply chain parties anticipate inventory order decisions from buyers and improve profitability.

Pay-for-performance and public reporting programs may have a neutral, narrowing, or widening effect on racial disparities in health care. The authors begin this article by suggesting that certain characteristics of these programs may affect disparities. They then present results from a systematic review of the literature on the effects of performance incentive programs on racial disparities in health care. The review revealed that only one empirical study provided data on this issue: It showed that a major public reporting program increased disparities in coronary artery bypass graft rates. The authors then present the results of interviews with leaders of 15 major performance incentive programs in the United States. The interviews indicated that current programs are not designed to reduce disparities and often lack characteristics that may be important in reducing disparities. The article concludes with program leaders' recommendations on how performance incentive programs could be designed to reduce disparities.

Racial and ethnic disparities in cardiovascular health care are well documented. Promising approaches to disparity reduction are increasingly described in literature published since 1995, but reports are fragmented by risk, condition, population, and setting. The authors conducted a systematic review of clinically oriented studies in communities of color that addressed hypertension, hyperlipidemia, physical inactivity, tobacco, and two major cardiovascular conditions, coronary artery disease and heart failure. Virtually no literature specifically addressed disparity reduction. The greatest focus has been African American populations, with relatively little work in Hispanic, Asian, and Native American populations. The authors found 62 interventions, 27 addressing hypertension, 9 lipids, 18 tobacco use, 8 physical inactivity, and 7 heart failure. Only 1 study specifically addressed postmyocardial infarction care. Data supporting the value of registries, multidisciplinary teams, and community outreach were found across several conditions. Interventions addressing care transitions, using telephonic outreach, and promoting medication access and adherence merit further exploration.