Suchergebnisse

The hypothesis that financial development promotes economic growth in developing countries is largely supported by empirical studies, though contrary evidence also exists. This relationship is re-examined using annual panel data for 44 developing countries for 1974–2001. Three sources-of-growth equations, which are specified from aggregate production functions, are estimated: two are theoretically consistent, while the third uses a common proxy (DEPTH) for financial development. Results show conflicting evidence: the theoretically consistent models show a positive and statistically significant relationship between financial development and economic growth, whereas the proxy version shows the opposite. Measuring financial development appropriately appears critical for policy advice

This paper estimates the acreage supply response of natural rubber in Thailand using cointegration methods. Results show that a unique long-run relationship exists between area planted, the rubber price and the replanting subsidy, and the rubber price is weakly exogenous. The short-run own price elasticity of acreage response is low at 0.04 whereas the corresponding long-run elasticity is 2.24, and the use of pricing policy takes a long lead time to take effect. The acreage elasticity in response to a change in the subsidy is 1.17 and the replanting subsidy is a key driver for increasing rubber production.

This paper quantifies the contribution of exports to economic growth in developing countries. We apply recently developed panel cointegration methods which admit structural breaks to examine bivariate export-income relationships for a panel of 47 developing countries for annual data for 1970–2004. Results show that long-run relationships exist and there is bi-directional causality between exports and income; structural breaks occur in most country-specific relationships and most occur in the 1980s following the debt crisis of 1981–82; the income-export elasticity is 0.22 while the export-income elasticity is 1.13. Structural differences also exist in the relationships by broad income group and the impact of exports on income increases while that of income on exports falls as income increases. Export-promotion policies are not misplaced and the trade liberalisation policies advocated and sometimes imposed by the World Bank which aim to stimulate economic development seem justified but should by tailored to individual country needs.