Suchergebnisse

AbstractThis article examines a new era of models predicting fertility decline reversal as female‐to‐male wages rise. Standard microeconomic frameworks and diagrams simplify theoretical concepts for students and policymakers. The analysis reveals how demand for children may increase when households substitute childcare for women's time. An income effect dominates when responsiveness of the input mix and preference for children are high. Challenging conventional assumptions unveils the importance of gender inequality at home, economies of scale in raising children, and market‐determined childcare prices. The findings suggest that household taxation and preferences influence how childcare subsidies and paid maternity leave shape fertility upturn.

AbstractReal house prices rise in Australia amid growing concern of an impending correction. This article explains why the household formation rate has risen with strong population growth due to higher net immigration and average household size levelling off due to population ageing. An intertemporal model is developed to analyse the effect of an increase in the household formation rate on the housing market. I find that real house prices rise over time if the rate of household formation outstrips the rate of housing supply. Under forward looking expectations, a rising household formation rate could explain rising real house prices relative to the present discounted value of future wages. The results explain why real house prices may exhibit an upward trend despite population ageing and how government planning could have an impact.

AbstractReal house prices rise in the United Kingdom amid growing concern of an impending correction. The rate of household formation has increased with strong population growth, due to elevated rates of natural increase and net migration, and lack of growth in average household size, due to a rise in single‐person households with population ageing. This paper presents an overlapping generations model of housing, endogenous labour, savings and growth to analyse the effect of an increase in the household formation rate and speculative demand under rational expectations on house prices in a general equilibrium. We find that real house prices rise over time if the rate of household formation outstrips the rate of housing supply, but do not follow a speculative bubble path in the long run. The results explain why the upward trend in real house prices reflects market fundamentals and has continued despite population ageing as the number of working and retired households grows relative to the number of older people seeking to sell.