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In: Journal of international economics, Band 8, Heft 2, S. 357-359
ISSN: 0022-1996
In: Journal of political economy, Band 83, Heft 5, S. 1077-1080
ISSN: 1537-534X
In: Journal of international economics, Band 5, Heft 3, S. 207-228
ISSN: 0022-1996
In: CESifo Working Paper No. 10741
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In: CESifo Working Paper No. 8853
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Working paper
In: Journal of common market studies: JCMS, Band 58, Heft S1
ISSN: 1468-5965
In: CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP14540
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Working paper
In: Journal of common market studies: JCMS, Band 57, Heft S1, S. 40-48
ISSN: 1468-5965
In: Journal of economic dynamics & control, Band 91, S. 206-236
ISSN: 0165-1889
In: Comparative economic studies, Band 60, Heft 2, S. 203-216
ISSN: 1478-3320
In: Economica, Band 86, Heft 342, S. 262-299
ISSN: 1468-0335
We analyse the relationship between the level of the inflation target and the zero lower bound imposed on the nominal interest rate in the framework of a behavioural New‐Keynesian macroeconomic model in which agents, experiencing cognitive limitations, use adaptive learning forecasting rules. The model produces endogenous waves of optimism and pessimism (animal spirits) that lead to non‐normal distributions of the output gap. We find that when the inflation target is too close to zero, the economy can get gripped by 'chronic pessimism' that leads to a dominance of negative output gaps and recessions, and in turn feeds back on expectations producing long waves of pessimism. Low inflation targets create the risk of persistence of recessions and low growth. In conclusion, our framework suggests that the 2% inflation target, now pursued by many central banks, is too low.
In: Comparative Economic Studies, Band 60, Heft 2
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In: CEPS Policy Insight, No 2018-08/February 2018
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In: CESifo Working Paper Series No. 6518
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Working paper