Suchergebnisse

Este artigo objetiva analisar os principais determinantes e impactos da recente onda de bancos europeus no Brasil. A principal hipótese do artigo é que a onda de bancos europeus só pode ser entendida se forem considerados ambos os fatores externos e internos. Os determinantes externos estão relacionados ao processo de consolidação bancária no sistema financeiro europeu no contexto da União Monetária Européia, que tem estimulado alguns bancos a se expandirem para o exterior. Os determinantes internos, por sua vez, estão relacionados principalmente à gradual flexibilização das restrições legais, com respeito à presença dos bancos estrangeiros no setor bancário brasileiro. Finalmente, o artigo também avalia os impactos da entrada recente dos bancos europeus no mercado bancário varejista brasileiro. Neste particular, ele mostra que a entrada estrangeira tem afetado o mercado bancário doméstico, forçando os bancos nacionais a operarem de forma mais eficiente e também a expandir suas atividades, organicamente ou por fusões e aquisições. O paper conclui que não existe evidência de que os bancos estrangeiros são mais eficientes do que os bancos domésticos no Brasil no período recente, mas existe alguma evidência de que os maiores bancos privados nacionais têm reagido positivamente à entrada dos bancos estrangeiros. Abstract This paper aims at analyzing the main determinants and impacts of the recent wave of European banks entering Brazil. The principal hypothesis of the paper is that the wave of European banks can only be understood if one considers both external and internal determinants. External determinants concern the process of banking consolidation in the European financial system under the EMU that has stimulated some banks to expand abroad. Internal determinants are mainly related to the gradual flexibilisation of legal restrictions with respect to the presence of foreign banks in the Brazilian banking sector. Finally, the paper evaluates the impacts of the recent entry of European banks into the retail banking market in Brazil. In this particular matter, it shows that foreign entry has affected the national banking market, forcing domestic banks to operate more efficiently, and also to expand their activities organically or by mergers and acquisitions. The paper concludes that there is no clear evidence that foreign banks have been more efficient than domestic banks in Brazil in the recent period, but there is some evidence that the big private Brazilian banks have reacted positively to the entry of foreign banks.

This paper aims at analysing the determinants of the recent wave of European banks to Brazil under the context of the recent phase of banking internationalisation. In its first part, it analyses the process of banking internationalisation from both analytical and historical approach. Focusing on the determinants of the banking internationalisation process, the paper shows that (i) the recent wave of banking internationalisation is characterised not only for financial institutions following their existing relationships, but also and increasingly by a greater integration with the local market; (ii) banks operating in countries where the banking sector is larger and more profitable should be able to export a superior skill and are more likely to expand their activities abroad. The second part of the paper examines the determinants of the expansion of European banks in Brazil, as well as the expansion strategy of the four major European banks in Latin America - BSCH, BBVA, HSBC and ABN-Amro. In this regard, it shows that the recent wave of European banks entering Latin America and Brazil is determined by a set of different factors, that includes the process of restructuring the banking sector under the EMU; the dynamics of the internationalisation of the Spanish banks, since they have been the main players in the recent influx of foreign banks into Latin America; the process of market deregulation in the region since early 1990s, in the broader context of economic and political reforms; the better prospects of the region for increasing returns to financial institution compared to developed countries, as well as the potential gains in efficiency. Besides, it also shows that one of the common features of the four major European banks in Latin America - BSCH, BBVA, HSBC and ABN-Amro - is that all the top 4 are big universal banks that choose to expand abroad as a strategy to expand their activities. More precisely, expanding abroad is not only a source of diversification of earnings, but also a way to strengthen their position in the European banking market under the pressure of economic and monetary union.

An analysis of the endogenous and exogenous political and economic factors that conditioned the Partido dos Trabalhadores's (PT) social-developmentalist project in 2003–2016 in the light of financialization and the "confidence game" conditioned by the volatility of external liquidity and commodities prices concludes that the first Lula administration faced the problem of a crisis of confidence and adopted orthodox policies but was able, with the improvement of international conditions, to launch policies of a more interventionist and distributive trend. Dilma Rousseff, facing a downright unfavorable international context, explicitly broke with the confidence game by applying the policy set of the new macroeconomic matrix. In her second term she radically reversed the policy orientation, moving toward a strong fiscal adjustment and monetary orthodoxy, and this eventually undermined her few sources of political support. The economic crisis from the second half of 2014 on undoubtedly contributed to the political crisis, which in turn made infeasible any attempt to implement policies to reverse the situation of economic crisis. Dilma's impeachment finally interrupted the PT's developmentalist project, allowing the emergence of new political actors. Uma análise dos fatores endógenos e exógenos, políticos e econômicos que condicionaram o projeto social-desenvolvimentista do Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) em 2003–2016 à luz da financeirização e do "confidence game" condicionado pela volatilidade dos ciclos externos de liquidez e preços de commodities conclui que o primeiro governo Lula enfrentou o problema de crise de confiança e adotou políticas ortodoxas, mas pôde, com a melhoria nas condições internacionais, adotar políticas de perfil mais intervencionista e redistributivista. Já Dilma Rousseff, embora enfrentando contexto internacional francamente desfavorável, rompe explicitamente com o "confidence game" ao assumir o conjunto de políticas da Nova Matriz Macroeconômica. Na transição do primeiro para o segundo mandato, Dilma inverteu radicalmente a orientação das políticas, partindo para um forte ajuste fiscal e a ortodoxia monetária, o que acabou minando os poucos focos de sustentação política com os quais contava na sociedade. A crise econômica a partir do segundo semestre de 2014 sem dúvida contribuiu para dar origem à crise política, e esta por sua vez inviabilizou qualquer tentativa de implementação de políticas para reverter o quadro de crise econômica. O impeachment de Dilma, por fim, interrompe o projeto desenvolvimentista do PT, permitindo a emergência de novos atores políticos.

Given the neoliberal agenda implemented by Paulo Guedes's Ministry of the Economy, the Bolsonaro government's nationalist stance has prompted academic debates over its rationales. Once the populist and conservative foundations of that nationalism are understood, however, there is no contradiction between it and Bolsonaro's economic policy. La agenda neoliberal implementada por el Ministerio de Economía de Paulo Guedes aparentemente cuestiona la postura nacionalista del gobierno de Bolsonaro y ha provocado debates académicos en torno a sus razones fundamentales. Sin embargo, una vez que se entienden las razones populistas y el conservatismo detrás de dicho nacionalismo, no hay contradicción entre estas y la política económica de Bolsonaro.

To what extent did the PT governments follow developmentalist policies? A critical assessment reveals that they combined two varieties of developmentalism in different ways over time, with a surprisingly high frequency of policy changes, and that orthodox policies played a prominent role in part of this time span.Até que ponto os governos do PT seguiram políticas desenvolvimentistas? Uma avaliação crítica revela que eles combinaram duas variedades de desenvolvimentismo de maneiras diferentes ao longo do tempo, com uma frequência surpreendentemente alta de mudanças de políticas, e que as políticas ortodoxas tiveram um papel de destaque em parte desse período.