Suchergebnisse

La scelta del modeller riguardo alla chiusura del modello CGE influenza i suoi risultati finali e le sue prescrizioni di policy. In questa tesi, lo scopo è l'analisi e l'identificazione del problema, sia attraverso una discussione teorica che un' applicazione pratica. Dall'articolo del 1963 di Amartya Sen in poi, la letteratura ha presentato vari articoli sull'argomento. Attualmente, il problema delle chiusure del modello non appare più centrale nel dibattito. Dopo una breve introduzione su cosa siano i CGE, il loro sviluppo e la loro struttura, è presentata una serie di esemplificative maquette con lo scopo di introdurre al concetto di chiusura, come essa influenzi i risultati e come questa scelta del modeller sia intimamente connessa ai fondamenti macroeconomici del sistema. Dopo la teoria, ci si sposta nel mondo reale analizzando con differenti modelli (Neoclassico, "Bastardo Keynesiano", Strutturalista/Post- Keynesiano) e diverse chiusure per gli aggregati macroeconomici (risparmi privati, pubblici, e stranieri) l'impatto dell'accordo regionale SADC sull'economia mozambicana. I modelli CGE per il Mozambico sono calibrati su una SAM del 2003 e sono svolti con l'ausilio di GAMS/MPSGE. I risultati dimostrano che la chiusura influenza i risultati stessi del modello per cui ognuno presenta una serie di raccomandazioni politiche per l'applicazione dell'accordo SADC. ; Modellers' choice on closure rules affects a CGE model results and consequently its policy prescriptions. In this thesis, the aim is to detect and assess this issue, both through a theoretical discussion and an empirical application. Starting from Amartya Sen's 1963 paper, literature presents many contributions on this topic. Currently, the closure rule problem is not central in the CGE debate. After a brief introduction on CGEs, their development and their structure, a series of simple maquette is presented. They have the exemplary role of introducing the concept of closures, explain how they affect final outcomes and how this modeller's choice is strictly connected to the macroeconomic foundation of the economic system. After theory, we move into the real World analyzing through different models (Neoclassical, "Bastard Keynesian", and Structuralist/ Post- Keynesian), and through different closure rules for macro- aggregates (private, public and foreign savings) the impact of the Regional Trade Agreement of SADC with respect to the Mozambican economy. The Mozambican CGE models are calibrated on a 2003 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and they are performed using GAMS/ MPSGE. Outcomes show that closure rules affect them and each model presents a set of policy prescription to implement the SADC agreement.

This paper aims to present an extension of the ICES model to capture the public sector. Departing from a demand system mainly derived from the GTAP model, ICES-XPS model disentangles the private and the public actors. The paper reviews the changes in both the database and the model equations following the existing literature and considering the availability of data as well. The model is then tested with a series of simple experiments to highlight its contribution to economic analysis in which the public sector may play an important role. Finally, we show the flexibility in the closure rule of the public sector that allows addressing different policy research questions.

Recent calls to do climate policy research with, rather than for, stakeholders have been answered in non-modelling science. Notwithstanding progress in modelling literature, however, very little of the scenario space traces back to what stakeholders are ultimately concerned about. With a suite of eleven integrated assessment, energy system and sectoral models, we carry out a model inter-comparison for the EU, the scenario logic and research questions of which have been formulated based on stakeholders' concerns. The output of this process is a scenario framework exploring where the region is headed rather than how to achieve its goals, extrapolating its current policy efforts into the future. We find that Europe is currently on track to overperforming its pre-2020 40% target yet far from its newest ambition of 55% emissions cuts by 2030, as well as looking at a 1.0–2.35 GtCO2 emissions range in 2050. Aside from the importance of transport electrification, deployment levels of carbon capture and storage are found intertwined with deeper emissions cuts and with hydrogen diffusion, with most hydrogen produced post-2040 being blue. Finally, the multi-model exercise has highlighted benefits from deeper decarbonisation in terms of energy security and jobs, and moderate to high renewables-dominated investment needs. ; publishedVersion

Recent calls to do climate policy research with, rather than for, stakeholders have been answered in nonmodellingscience. Notwithstanding progress in modelling literature, however, very little of the scenario spacetraces back to what stakeholders are ultimately concerned about. With a suite of eleven integrated assessment,energy system and sectoralmodels, we carry out amodel inter-comparison for the EU, the scenario logic and researchquestions of which have been formulated based on stakeholders' concerns. The output of this process is ascenario framework exploring where the region is headed rather than how to achieve its goals, extrapolating itscurrent policy efforts into the future. We find that Europe is currently on track to overperforming its pre-202040% target yet far from its newest ambition of 55% emissions cuts by 2030, as well as looking at a 1.0–2.35 GtCO2 emissions range in 2050. Aside from the importance of transport electrification, deployment levels of carboncapture and storage are found intertwined with deeper emissions cuts and with hydrogen diffusion, withmost hydrogen produced post-2040 being blue. Finally, the multi-model exercise has highlighted benefitsfrom deeper decarbonisation in terms of energy security and jobs, and moderate to high renewablesdominatedinvestment needs.