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Wildfires pose a significant risk to human livelihoods and are a substantial health hazard due to emissions of toxic smoke. Previous studies have shown that climate change, increasing atmospheric CO 2 , and human demographic dynamics can lead to substantially altered wildfire risk in the future, with fire activity increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. The present study re-examines these results from the perspective of air pollution risk, focussing on emissions of airborne particulate matter (PM 2. 5 ), combining an existing ensemble of simulations using a coupled fire–dynamic vegetation model with current observation-based estimates of wildfire emissions and simulations with a chemical transport model. Currently, wildfire PM 2. 5 emissions exceed those from anthropogenic sources in large parts of the world. We further analyse two extreme sets of future wildfire emissions in a socio-economic, demographic climate change context and compare them to anthropogenic emission scenarios reflecting current and ambitious air pollution legislation. In most regions of the world, ambitious reductions of anthropogenic air pollutant emissions have the potential to limit mean annual pollutant PM 2. 5 levels to comply with World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines for PM 2. 5 . Worst-case future wildfire emissions are not likely to interfere with these annual goals, largely due to fire seasonality, as well as a tendency of wildfire sources to be situated in areas of intermediate population density, as opposed to anthropogenic sources that tend to be highest at the highest population densities. However, during the high-fire season, we find many regions where future PM 2. 5 pollution levels can reach dangerous levels even for a scenario of aggressive reduction of anthropogenic emissions.

Wildfires pose a significant risk to human livelihoods and are a substantial health hazard due to emissions of toxic smoke. Previous studies have shown that climate change, increasing atmospheric CO2, and human demographic dynamics can lead to substantially altered wildfire risk in the future, with fire activity increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. The present study re-examines these results from the perspective of air pollution risk, focussing on emissions of airborne particulate matter (PM2. 5), combining an existing ensemble of simulations using a coupled fire–dynamic vegetation model with current observation-based estimates of wildfire emissions and simulations with a chemical transport model. Currently, wildfire PM2. 5 emissions exceed those from anthropogenic sources in large parts of the world. We further analyse two extreme sets of future wildfire emissions in a socio-economic, demographic climate change context and compare them to anthropogenic emission scenarios reflecting current and ambitious air pollution legislation. In most regions of the world, ambitious reductions of anthropogenic air pollutant emissions have the potential to limit mean annual pollutant PM2. 5 levels to comply with World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines for PM2. 5. Worst-case future wildfire emissions are not likely to interfere with these annual goals, largely due to fire seasonality, as well as a tendency of wildfire sources to be situated in areas of intermediate population density, as opposed to anthropogenic sources that tend to be highest at the highest population densities. However, during the high-fire season, we find many regions where future PM2. 5 pollution levels can reach dangerous levels even for a scenario of aggressive reduction of anthropogenic emissions.

Wildfires pose a significant risk to human livelihoods and are a substantial health hazard due to emissions of toxic smoke. Previous studies have shown that climate change, increasing atmospheric CO₂, and human demographic dynamics can lead to substantially altered wildfire risk in the future, with fire activity increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. The present study re-examines these results from the perspective of air pollution risk, focussing on emissions of airborne particulate matter (PM$_{2.5}$), combining an existing ensemble of simulations using a coupled fire–dynamic vegetation model with current observation-based estimates of wildfire emissions and simulations with a chemical transport model. Currently, wildfire PM$_{2.5}$ emissions exceed those from anthropogenic sources in large parts of the world. We further analyse two extreme sets of future wildfire emissions in a socio-economic, demographic climate change context and compare them to anthropogenic emission scenarios reflecting current and ambitious air pollution legislation. In most regions of the world, ambitious reductions of anthropogenic air pollutant emissions have the potential to limit mean annual pollutant PM$_{2.5}$ levels to comply with World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines for PM$_{2.5}$. Worst-case future wildfire emissions are not likely to interfere with these annual goals, largely due to fire seasonality, as well as a tendency of wildfire sources to be situated in areas of intermediate population density, as opposed to anthropogenic sources that tend to be highest at the highest population densities. However, during the high-fire season, we find many regions where future PM$_{2.5}$ pollution levels can reach dangerous levels even for a scenario of aggressive reduction of anthropogenic ...

Air quality management is strongly driven by legislative aspects related to the exceedance of air quality limit values. Here, we use the Norwegian Climate Centre's Earth System Model to assess the impact of a future scenario of maximum feasible aerosol emission abatement and increasing greenhouse gases (RCP4.5) on urban PM 2.5 concentrations in Europe. Daily PM 2.5 concentrations are assessed using a novel downscaling method which allows us to compute exceedances of current and planned air quality thresholds. For the latter, we assume that future ambitious emission reductions are likely to be accompanied by stricter air quality thresholds. The changes in PM 2.5 concentrations are discussed in the context of the large-scale atmospheric changes observed relative to the present-day climate. Our results show a more positive North Atlantic Oscillation mean state in the future, combined with a large eastward shift of both North Atlantic sea-level pressure centres of action. This is associated with more frequent mid-latitude blocking and a northward shift of the jet stream. These changes favour higher than expected anthropogenic urban PM 2.5 concentrations in Southern Europe, while they have the opposite effect on the northern half of the continent. In the future scenario, PM concentrations in substantial parts of Southern Europe are found to exceed the World Health Organisation Air Quality Guideline daily limit of 25 μg/m 3 on 25 to over 50 days per year, and annual guidelines of 10 µg/m 3 on more than 80% of the 30 years analysed in our study. We conclude that alterations in atmospheric circulation in the future, induced by stringent maximum feasible air pollution mitigation as well as GHG emissions, will negatively influence the effectiveness of these emission abatements over large parts of Europe. This has important implications for future air quality policies.

International audience ; The EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research) v4.3 global anthropogenic emissions inventory of several gaseous (SO2, NOx, CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) and NH3) and particulate (PM10, PM2.5, black and organic carbon (BC and OC)) air pollutants for the period 1970–2010 is used to develop retrospective air pollution emission scenarios to quantify the roles and contributions of changes in fuels consumption, technology, end-of-pipe emission reduction measures and their resulting impact on health and crop yields. This database presents changes in activity data, fuels and air pollution abatement technology for the past 4 decades, using international statistics and following guidelines for bottom-up emission inventory at the Tier 1 and Tier 2 levels with region-specific default values. With two further retrospective scenarios we assess (1) the impact of the technology and end-of-pipe (EOP) reduction measures in the European Union (EU) by considering a stagnation of technology with constant emission factors from 1970 and with no further abatement measures and improvement in European emissions standards, but fuel consumption occurring at historical pace, and (2) the impact of increased fuel consumption by considering unchanged energy use with constant fuel consumption since 1970, but technological development and end-of-pipe reductions. Our scenario analysis focuses on the three most important and most regulated sectors (power generation, the manufacturing industry and road transport), which are subject of multi-pollutant EU Air Quality regulations. If technology and European EOP reduction measures had stagnated at 1970 levels, EU air quality in 2010 would have suffered from 129 % higher SO2, 71 % higher NOx and 69 % higher PM2.5 emissions, demonstrating the large role of technology in reducing emissions in 2010. However, if fuel consumption had remained constant starting in 1970, the EU would have benefited from current technology and emission control standards, with reductions in NOx by even 13 % more. Such further savings are not observed for SO2 and PM2.5. If the EU consumed the same amount of fuels as in 1970 but with the current technology and emission control standards, then the emissions of SO2 and PM2.5 would be 42 % respectively 10 % higher. This scenario shows the importance for air quality of abandoning heavy residual fuel oil and shifting fuel types (from, e.g., coal to gas) in the EU. A reduced-form TM5-FASST (Fast Screening Scenario Tool based on the global chemical Transport Model 5) is applied to calculate regional and global levels of aerosol and ozone concentrations and to assess the impact of air quality improvements on human health and crop yield loss, showing substantial impacts of export of EU technologies and standards to other world regions.

International audience ; The EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research) v4.3 global anthropogenic emissions inventory of several gaseous (SO2, NOx, CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) and NH3) and particulate (PM10, PM2.5, black and organic carbon (BC and OC)) air pollutants for the period 1970–2010 is used to develop retrospective air pollution emission scenarios to quantify the roles and contributions of changes in fuels consumption, technology, end-of-pipe emission reduction measures and their resulting impact on health and crop yields. This database presents changes in activity data, fuels and air pollution abatement technology for the past 4 decades, using international statistics and following guidelines for bottom-up emission inventory at the Tier 1 and Tier 2 levels with region-specific default values. With two further retrospective scenarios we assess (1) the impact of the technology and end-of-pipe (EOP) reduction measures in the European Union (EU) by considering a stagnation of technology with constant emission factors from 1970 and with no further abatement measures and improvement in European emissions standards, but fuel consumption occurring at historical pace, and (2) the impact of increased fuel consumption by considering unchanged energy use with constant fuel consumption since 1970, but technological development and end-of-pipe reductions. Our scenario analysis focuses on the three most important and most regulated sectors (power generation, the manufacturing industry and road transport), which are subject of multi-pollutant EU Air Quality regulations. If technology and European EOP reduction measures had stagnated at 1970 levels, EU air quality in 2010 would have suffered from 129 % higher SO2, 71 % higher NOx and 69 % higher PM2.5 emissions, demonstrating the large role of technology in reducing emissions in 2010. However, if fuel consumption had remained constant starting in 1970, the EU would have benefited from current technology and emission control ...

International audience ; The EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research) v4.3 global anthropogenic emissions inventory of several gaseous (SO2, NOx, CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) and NH3) and particulate (PM10, PM2.5, black and organic carbon (BC and OC)) air pollutants for the period 1970–2010 is used to develop retrospective air pollution emission scenarios to quantify the roles and contributions of changes in fuels consumption, technology, end-of-pipe emission reduction measures and their resulting impact on health and crop yields. This database presents changes in activity data, fuels and air pollution abatement technology for the past 4 decades, using international statistics and following guidelines for bottom-up emission inventory at the Tier 1 and Tier 2 levels with region-specific default values. With two further retrospective scenarios we assess (1) the impact of the technology and end-of-pipe (EOP) reduction measures in the European Union (EU) by considering a stagnation of technology with constant emission factors from 1970 and with no further abatement measures and improvement in European emissions standards, but fuel consumption occurring at historical pace, and (2) the impact of increased fuel consumption by considering unchanged energy use with constant fuel consumption since 1970, but technological development and end-of-pipe reductions. Our scenario analysis focuses on the three most important and most regulated sectors (power generation, the manufacturing industry and road transport), which are subject of multi-pollutant EU Air Quality regulations. If technology and European EOP reduction measures had stagnated at 1970 levels, EU air quality in 2010 would have suffered from 129 % higher SO2, 71 % higher NOx and 69 % higher PM2.5 emissions, demonstrating the large role of technology in reducing emissions in 2010. However, if fuel consumption had remained constant starting in 1970, the EU would have benefited from current technology and emission control standards, with reductions in NOx by even 13 % more. Such further savings are not observed for SO2 and PM2.5. If the EU consumed the same amount of fuels as in 1970 but with the current technology and emission control standards, then the emissions of SO2 and PM2.5 would be 42 % respectively 10 % higher. This scenario shows the importance for air quality of abandoning heavy residual fuel oil and shifting fuel types (from, e.g., coal to gas) in the EU. A reduced-form TM5-FASST (Fast Screening Scenario Tool based on the global chemical Transport Model 5) is applied to calculate regional and global levels of aerosol and ozone concentrations and to assess the impact of air quality improvements on human health and crop yield loss, showing substantial impacts of export of EU technologies and standards to other world regions.

International audience The EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research) v4.3 global anthropogenic emissions inventory of several gaseous (SO2, NOx, CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) and NH3) and particulate (PM10, PM2.5, black and organic carbon (BC and OC)) air pollutants for the period 1970–2010 is used to develop retrospective air pollution emission scenarios to quantify the roles and contributions of changes in fuels consumption, technology, end-of-pipe emission reduction measures and their resulting impact on health and crop yields. This database presents changes in activity data, fuels and air pollution abatement technology for the past 4 decades, using international statistics and following guidelines for bottom-up emission inventory at the Tier 1 and Tier 2 levels with region-specific default values. With two further retrospective scenarios we assess (1) the impact of the technology and end-of-pipe (EOP) reduction measures in the European Union (EU) by considering a stagnation of technology with constant emission factors from 1970 and with no further abatement measures and improvement in European emissions standards, but fuel consumption occurring at historical pace, and (2) the impact of increased fuel consumption by considering unchanged energy use with constant fuel consumption since 1970, but technological development and end-of-pipe reductions. Our scenario analysis focuses on the three most important and most regulated sectors (power generation, the manufacturing industry and road transport), which are subject of multi-pollutant EU Air Quality regulations. If technology and European EOP reduction measures had stagnated at 1970 levels, EU air quality in 2010 would have suffered from 129 % higher SO2, 71 % higher NOx and 69 % higher PM2.5 emissions, demonstrating the large role of technology in reducing emissions in 2010. However, if fuel consumption had remained constant starting in 1970, the EU would have benefited from current technology and emission control ...

International audience ; The EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research) v4.3 global anthropogenic emissions inventory of several gaseous (SO2, NOx, CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) and NH3) and particulate (PM10, PM2.5, black and organic carbon (BC and OC)) air pollutants for the period 1970–2010 is used to develop retrospective air pollution emission scenarios to quantify the roles and contributions of changes in fuels consumption, technology, end-of-pipe emission reduction measures and their resulting impact on health and crop yields. This database presents changes in activity data, fuels and air pollution abatement technology for the past 4 decades, using international statistics and following guidelines for bottom-up emission inventory at the Tier 1 and Tier 2 levels with region-specific default values. With two further retrospective scenarios we assess (1) the impact of the technology and end-of-pipe (EOP) reduction measures in the European Union (EU) by considering a stagnation of technology with constant emission factors from 1970 and with no further abatement measures and improvement in European emissions standards, but fuel consumption occurring at historical pace, and (2) the impact of increased fuel consumption by considering unchanged energy use with constant fuel consumption since 1970, but technological development and end-of-pipe reductions. Our scenario analysis focuses on the three most important and most regulated sectors (power generation, the manufacturing industry and road transport), which are subject of multi-pollutant EU Air Quality regulations. If technology and European EOP reduction measures had stagnated at 1970 levels, EU air quality in 2010 would have suffered from 129 % higher SO2, 71 % higher NOx and 69 % higher PM2.5 emissions, demonstrating the large role of technology in reducing emissions in 2010. However, if fuel consumption had remained constant starting in 1970, the EU would have benefited from current technology and emission control standards, with reductions in NOx by even 13 % more. Such further savings are not observed for SO2 and PM2.5. If the EU consumed the same amount of fuels as in 1970 but with the current technology and emission control standards, then the emissions of SO2 and PM2.5 would be 42 % respectively 10 % higher. This scenario shows the importance for air quality of abandoning heavy residual fuel oil and shifting fuel types (from, e.g., coal to gas) in the EU. A reduced-form TM5-FASST (Fast Screening Scenario Tool based on the global chemical Transport Model 5) is applied to calculate regional and global levels of aerosol and ozone concentrations and to assess the impact of air quality improvements on human health and crop yield loss, showing substantial impacts of export of EU technologies and standards to other world regions.

We apply different aerosol and aerosol precursor emission scenarios reflecting possible future control strategies for air pollution in the ECHAM5-HAM model, and simulate the resulting effect on the Earth's radiation budget. We use two opposing future mitigation strategies for the year 2030: one in which emission reduction legislation decided in countries throughout the world are effectively implemented (current legislation; CLE 2030) and one in which all technical options for emission reductions are being implemented independent of their cost (maximum feasible reduction; MFR 2030). We consider the direct, semi-direct and indirect radiative effects of aerosols. The total anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing defined as the difference in the top-of-the-atmosphere radiation between 2000 and pre-industrial times amounts to −2.00 W/m2. In the future this negative global annual mean aerosol radiative forcing will only slightly change (+0.02 W/m2) under the "current legislation" scenario. Regionally, the effects are much larger: e.g. over Eastern Europe radiative forcing would increase by +1.50 W/m2 because of successful aerosol reduction policies, whereas over South Asia it would decrease by −1.10 W/m2 because of further growth of emissions. A "maximum feasible reduction" of aerosols and their precursors would lead to an increase of the global annual mean aerosol radiative forcing by +1.13 W/m2. Hence, in the latter case, the present day negative anthropogenic aerosol forcing could be more than halved by 2030 because of aerosol reduction policies and climate change thereafter will be to a larger extent be controlled by greenhouse gas emissions. We combined these two opposing future mitigation strategies for a number of experiments focusing on different sectors and regions. In addition, we performed sensitivity studies to estimate the importance of future changes in oxidant concentrations and the importance of the aerosol microphysical coupling within the range of expected future changes. For changes in oxidant ...

Abstract In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE2.4 framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios describe emission developments in 26 world regions for the 21st century, using a matrix of climate and air pollution policies. For climate policy, the study uses a baseline resulting in forcing levels slightly above RCP6.0 and an ambitious climate policy scenario similar to RCP2.6. For air pollution, the study explores increasingly tight emission standards, ranging from no improvement, current legislation and three variants assuming further improvements. For all pollutants, the results show that more stringent control policies are needed after 2030 to prevent a rise in emissions due to increased activities and further reduce emissions. The results also show that climate mitigation policies have the highest impact on SO2 and NOX emissions, while their impact on BC and OC emissions is relatively low, determined by the overlap between greenhouse gas and air pollutant emission sources. Climate policy can have important co-benefits; a 10% decrease in global CO2 emissions by 2100 leads to a decrease of SO2 and NOX emissions by about 10% and 5%, respectively compared to 2005 levels. In most regions, low levels of air pollutant emissions can also be achieved by solely implementing stringent air pollution policies. The largest differences across the scenarios are found in Asia and other developing regions, where a combination of climate and air pollution policy is needed to bring air pollution levels below those of today.

The Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) compiles anthropogenic emissions data for greenhouse gases (GHGs), and for multiple air pollutants, based on international statistics and emission factors. EDGAR data provide quantitative support for atmospheric modelling and for mitigation scenario and impact assessment analyses as well as for policy evaluation. The new version (v4.3.2) of the EDGAR emission inventory provides global estimates, broken down to IPCC-relevant source-sector levels, from 1970 (the year of the European Union's first Air Quality Directive) to 2012 (the end year of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, KP). Strengths of EDGAR v4.3.2 include global geo-coverage (226 countries), continuity in time, and comprehensiveness in activities. Emissions of multiple chemical compounds, GHGs as well as air pollutants, from relevant sources (fossil fuel activities but also, for example, fermentation processes in agricultural activities) are compiled following a bottom-up (BU), transparent and IPCC-compliant methodology. This paper describes EDGAR v4.3.2 developments with respect to three major long-lived GHGs (HYDRO, CH 4 , and HYDRO) derived from a wide range of human activities apart from the land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector and apart from savannah burning; a companion paper quantifies and discusses emissions of air pollutants. Detailed information is included for each of the IPCC-relevant source sectors, leading to global totals for 2010 (in the middle of the first KP commitment period) (with a 95% confidence interval in parentheses): HYDRO PgCO HYDRO yr HYDRO, HYDRO PgCH HYDRO yr HYDRO, and HYDRO TgN HYDRO Oyr HYDRO. We provide uncertainty factors in emissions data for the different GHGs and for three different groups of countries: OECD countries of 1990, countries with economies in transition in 1990, and the remaining countries in development (the UNFCCC non-Annex I parties). We document trends for the major emitting countries together with the European Union in more for each source sector.