Suchergebnisse

Abstract
Over the last 20 years, Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) have brought together scientific experts and stakeholders to produce regional-scale climate information products for society. This article examines the goals and practices of RCOFs, with a focus on user engagement, in order to draw out practical lessons for future implementation of RCOFs. Analysis of literature and documents (n = 72), interviews with key informants (n = 25), and participant observation were used in this research. Results show that approaches to user engagement in the RCOFs vary significantly from region to region and have been shaped by differences in the priority placed on user engagement relative to the other goals of the RCOFs, the role of RCOFs in the broader climate services delivery chain, the landscapes of potential users and institutions, and views about what the role of users can and should be. Findings indicate that approaches to user engagement necessarily reflect the regional context. This research suggests that more reflexivity about the current framing of RCOF goals is needed, including how users can and should be involved within RCOFs and how the benefits and value of RCOFs are conceptualized, assessed, and communicated in the future.

AbstractWith future changes in climate being inevitable, adaptation planning has become a policy priority. A central element in adaptation planning is scientific expertise and knowledge of what the future climate may hold. The U.K. Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) provide climate information designed to help those needing to plan how to adapt to a changing climate. This paper attempts to determine how useful and usable UKCP09 is for adaptation decision making. The study used a mixed-methods approach that includes analysis of adaptation reports, a quantitative survey, and semistructured interviews with key adaptation stakeholders working in the science–policy interface, which included decision makers, knowledge producers, and knowledge translators. The knowledge system criteria were used to assess the credibility, legitimacy, and saliency of UKCP09 for each stakeholder group. It emerged that stakeholders perceived UKCP09 to be credible and legitimate because of its sophistication, funding source, and the scientific reputation of organizations involved in UKCP09's development. However, because of the inherent complexities of decision making and a potentially greater diversity in users, UKCP09's saliency was found to be dependent upon the scientific competence and familiarity of the user(s) in dealing with climate information. An example of this was the use of Bayesian probabilistic projections, which improved the credibility and legitimacy of UKCP09's science but reduced the saliency for decision making. This research raises the question of whether the tailoring of climate projections is needed to enhance their salience for decision making, while recognizing that it is difficult to balance the three knowledge criteria in the production of usable science.

The EU has been a leader in international climate policy. However, due to activities of interest groups, domestic action, an area which the EU has strongly defended, is proving difficult to carry out, particularly for cohesion member states. Although their behaviour resembles free-riding, at least in an international dimension, Cohesion country targets are actually challenging in the face of their economic boom. Portugal accepted accepted limiting its GHGs emissions to a 27% increase up to 2010 whereas current projections lead to doubt that Portugal is capable of achieving its target unless more stringent policies are implemented. Underdeveloped institutional capacities and lack of abatement interests accompanied by the rapid economic and road traffic growth are the main causes of the inefficiency of current "quasi-policies". If Portugal is unable to comply, a consistent EU-wide climate policy is impossible and the risk that the EU as a whole fails to reach its Kyoto targets rises considerably. To reduce this risk, the EU could try to introduce strong enforcement rules and sanctions to prevent member states overshooting their targets. This will be extremely difficult as past efforts to enforce EU regulation have shown. A second way may be to use EU enlargement to enlarge the bubble by the accession countries and thus gain a safety margin. The third and easiest way would be to give the EU Commission the power to buy emission permits from abroad if the target is not reached and reduce EU transfers to those countries that have not reached their target proportionally to their degree of nonattainment. This would open a safety valve while leaving an incentive to countries not to default on their target. Even if the EU manages to keep its bubble intact, Portugal represents the problem of future high emitters which will be followed by developing countries in the near future. Moreover, Portugal also represents an equity dilemma vis-?-vis developing nations as it will be difficult to ask the latter to limit their emissions when a developed country such as Portugal will have them increased. ; Die EU hat bislang eine führende Rolle in der internationalen Klimapolitik eingenommen. Allerdings ist die von der EU betonte Umsetzung heimischer Emissionsverringerungsmaßnahmen gegen den Widerstand mächtiger Interessengruppen nur schwer durchsetzbar, insbesondere für Kohäsionsländer. Obwohl die Emissionsziele dieser Länder international eher als Beleg für Freifahrerverhalten gesehen werden, sind sie angesichts des ökonomischen Aufschwungs ehrgeizig. Portugal akzeptierte die Begrenzung seines Treibhausgaswachstums auf 27% bis 2010. Jedoch zeigen aktuelle Prognosen, dass die Zielerreichung zweifelhaft ist, sofern nicht wirksamere Politiken eingeführt werden. Unterentwickelte Institutionen und das Fehlen von Interessengruppen, die von Emissionsverringerung profitieren, gehen mit starkem Wirtschafts- und Verkehrswachstum einher und sind Hauptgrund der Ineffizienz der derzeitigen "Quasi-Politik". Wenn Portugal sein Ziel nicht erreicht, wird eine konsistente EU-Klimapolitik unmöglich und das Risiko nimmt zu, daß die EU ihr Kyoto-Ziel nicht erreicht. Es könnte durch die Einführung strenger Sanktionen gegenüber Mitgliedsstaaten, die ihre Ziele verfehlen, reduziert werden. Allerdings zeigen Erfahrungen mit der Durchsetzung von EU-Regeln, daß dies mit erheblichen Schwierigkeiten verbunden ist. Eine zweite Möglichkeit ist die Nutzung der EU-Erweiterung zur Erweiterung der Emissionsgemeinschaft, die damit eine Sicherheitsreserve gewinnen würde. Die dritte und einfachste Möglichkeit wäre, der EU-Kommission die Möglichkeit einzuräumen, Emissionsrechte einzukaufen, falls das Ziel nicht erreicht wird. Die Finanzierung würde durch die Reduzierung von EU-Transfers an die Länder erfolgen, die ihr Ziel nicht erreicht haben. Eine derartige, proportionale Transferverringerung würde einen Anreiz schaffen, das Ziel zu erreichen. Selbst wenn die EU-Zielgemeinschaft intakt bleibt, zeigt Portugal das Problem zukünftiger Großemittenten auf, das für Entwicklungsländer relevant werden wird. Darüber hinaus gibt es auch ein Gerechtigkeitsproblem: wie können Entwicklungsländer überzeugt werden, ihre Emissionen zu verringern, wenn selbst Industrieländer wie Portugal sie erhöhen dürfen?

AbstractBilled as the creation and provision of timely, tailored information for decision-making at all levels of society, climate services have garnered a great deal of attention in recent years. Despite this growing attention, strategies to design, diagnose, and evaluate climate services remain relatively ad hoc—and while a general sense of what constitutes "good practice" in climate service provision is developing in some areas, and with respect to certain aspects of service provision, a great deal about the effective implementation of such service remains unknown. This article reviews a sample of more than 100 climate service activities as a means to generate a snapshot of the state of the field in 2012. It is found that a "typical climate service" at this time was provided by a national meteorological service operating on a national scale to provide seasonal climate information to agricultural decision-makers online. The analysis shows that the field of climate services is still emerging—marked by contested definitions, an emphasis on capacity development, uneven progress toward coproduction, uncertain funding streams, and a lack of evaluation activities—and stands as a signpost against which the development of the field can be measured. The article also reflects on the relative contribution of this sort of sampling activity in informing "good practice" and offers suggestions for how both sampling and case study efforts can be better designed to increase the potential for learning. This article concludes with some observations on the relative contribution that broad-based analyses can play in informing this emerging field.

Local government has a crucial role to play in climate change adaptation, both delivering adaptation strategies devised from above and coordinating bottom-up action. This paper draws on a unique longitudinal dataset to measure progress in adaptation by local authorities in Britain, comparing results from a national-scale survey and follow-up interviews conducted in 2003 with a second wave of research completed a decade later. Whereas a decade ago local authority staff were unable to find scientific information that they could understand and use, we find that these technical-cognitive barriers to adaptation are no longer a major problem for local authority respondents. Thanks to considerable Government investment in research and science brokerage to improve the quality and accessibility of climate information, local authorities have developed their adaptive capacity, and their staff are now engaging with the 'right' kind of information in assessing climate change risks and opportunities. However, better knowledge has not translated into tangible adaptation actions. Local authorities face substantial difficulties in implementing adaptation plans. Budget cuts and a lack of political support from central government have sapped institutional capacity and political appetite to address long-term climate vulnerabilities, as local authorities in Britain now struggle even to deliver their immediate statutory responsibilities. Local authority adaptation has progressed farthest where it has been rebranded as resiliency to extreme weather so as to fit with the focus on immediate risks to delivering statutory duties. In the current political environment, adaptation officers need information about the economic costs of weather impacts to local authority services if they are to build the business case for adaptation and gain the leverage to secure resources and institutional license to implement tangible action. Unless these institutional barriers are addressed, local government is likely to struggle to adapt to a changing climate.