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Recent years have seen a surge in the number of scientific studies, reports and newspaper articles portraying possible connections between climate variability and violent conflict. As sudden changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to become more frequent in certain areas due to climate change, researchers and decision-makers alike have become increasingly worried about the security implications of extreme events such as droughts and floods. Concerns are that such events could undermine people's livelihoods, exacerbate social tensions and eventually contribute to political instability and violence, with crises in Syria, Darfur and the Western Sahel being frequently mentioned as examples. Yet, despite the vocal nature of those linking climate variability and violent conflict risk and the plausibility of some of their arguments, the empirical connection between the two phenomena is far from evident. Overall, we observe that violence is a far less common reaction to climatic shocks than peaceful adaptation or just silent suffering. Where it emerges, the relationship between climate variability and violent conflict is complex and contingent on further conflict-enabling societal conditions. Systematic knowledge about these conditions and the way in which they shape climate-conflict dynamics remains currently limited, which restricts our ability to understand climate-conflict linkages and assess potential climate-security risks. The present dissertation addresses this gap. Particular emphasis is placed on road and water infrastructures and on the way in which they influence the relationship between drought and conflict risk in Sub-Saharan Africa. Extreme precipitation shortfalls and their disastrous consequences for rain-fed agriculture and pastoralism are frequently discussed in the literature as possible threats to the peace and stability of African states. At the same time, there are reasons to believe that key infrastructures, such as roads and water delivery systems, would mediate the relationship ...

Despite growing concerns about the possible security implications of extreme precipitation shortfalls in vulnerable and politically fragile regions, the particular conditions that make armed violence more or less likely in times of drought remain poorly understood. Using a spatially disaggregated research design and focusing on sub-Saharan Africa, the present analysis assesses how far violent and nonviolent outcomes in the wake of drought can be accounted for by regional differences in the provision of key infrastructures that help coping with drought and preventing violence. The results indicate that civil conflict events in connection with drought are more likely in administrative areas with poorly developed road infrastructures. Drought-related communal violence, on the other hand, is more likely in regions where an important part of the population lacks access to an improved water source. Thus, while the provision of key infrastructures seems to moderate local conflict risks in connection with drought, there are nevertheless important distinctions with regard to different types of infrastructures and forms of armed violence. However, the importance of precipitation shortfalls as a conflict-facilitating factor in sub-Saharan Africa should not be overstated, as the overall contribution of drought measures to predicting violent events is modest in all calculated models.

Proponents of the environmental peacemaking approach argue that environmental cooperation has the potential to improve relations between states. This is because such cooperation facilitates common problem solving, cultivates interdependence, and helps to build trust and understanding. But as of now, very few cross-case studies on environmental peacemaking exist. Furthermore, much of the available literature understands peace in negative terms as the mere absence of acute conflict. This article addresses both shortcomings by studying the impact of international water cooperation on transitions toward more peaceful interstate relations. To do so, we combine information on positive water-related interactions between states with the peace scale, a recent data set measuring the degree of positive and negative peace between states. For the period 1956–2006, we find that a higher number of positive, water-related interactions in the previous ten years makes a shift toward more peaceful interstate relations more likely. This is particularly the case for state pairs that are not in acute conflict with each other.

This report offers guidance for climate change adaptation programming in fragile and conflict-affected contexts. It consists of a guide on conflict-sensitive adaptation as well as three analytical chapters which describe the analytical, conceptual and empirical basis. The guide outlines how to design and implement an adaptation project in a fragile or conflict-affected context. It provides guidance to ensure that an adaptation activity does not exacerbate tensions and, ideally, contributes to peace and stability. Starting point for the development of the guide is the observation that any adaptation project has an impact, either positive or negative, on political dynamics. This is especially relevant for countries which are fragile or conflict-affected. If poorly designed or executed a project might unintentionally lead to tensions, even an outbreak of violence. It is therefore imperative that adaptation projects are developed and implemented in a way that they are sensitive to conflictual situations on the ground. Ideally, they should be designed and implemented in a way that they contribute to stabilise the situation and prevent conflicts. The report offers a stocktaking of conflict sensitivity and adaptation in theory and practice. It helps identifying key design elements of a guide on conflict-sensitive adaptation through a review of existing guides on conflict sensitivity in general and how adaptation to climate change is or can be reflected by these approaches based on empirical insights and a consultations process with experts from the different issues areas affected.