Suchergebnisse

Since its appearance at the beginning of the 2000's, the Reduction of Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, known as REDD+, has gradually been admitted as an indispensable option for global policies aiming at tackling climate change. Relying on the concept of « avoided deforestation », it requires the formulation of a reference scenario aiming at evaluating efforts made by the countries involved in controlling their level of deforestation. Those scenarios are facing numerous political and scientific debates. This thesis aims at putting into perspective the principles of REDD+, based on a study site covering the Guiana Shield. In a first step, the formulation of a spatialiazed deforestation model over French Guiana will be presented, insisting on the necessity to focus on socio-economic drivers of deforestation. This statement will be reinforced, in a second step, by the the study of deforestation due to gold mining in the Guiana Shield, showing a very strong effect of gold prices and national political contexts on deforestation. These results finally contribute to a critical discussion on REDD+ mechanism, based on the formulation of very variable reference scenarios, relying more on political than on scientific determinants, and potentially enabling the emergence of environmental blackmailing. ; Depuis ses balbutiements au début des années 2000, la Réduction des Emissions liées à la Déforestation et la Dégradation forestière, plus connue sous le sigle REDD+, a peu à peu été admise comme un moyen indispensable des politiques globales de lutte contre le changement climatique. Reposant sur le concept de « déforestation évitée », elle nécessite la formulation d'un scénario de référence servant à évaluer les efforts des pays dans la maîtrise de leur niveau de déforestation. Ces scénarios sont au cœur de nombreux débats politiques et scientifiques. Cette thèse constitue une mise en perspective des principes de REDD+ avec, comme cas d'étude, le Plateau des Guyanes. Dans un premier temps, on présentera ...

Depuis ses balbutiements au début des années 2000, la Réduction des Emissions liées à la Déforestation et la Dégradation forestière, plus connue sous le sigle REDD+, a peu à peu été admise comme un moyen indispensable des politiques globales de lutte contre le changement climatique. Reposant sur le concept de " déforestation évitée ", elle nécessite la formulation d'un scénario de référence servant à évaluer les efforts des pays dans la maîtrise de leur niveau de déforestation. Ces scénarios sont au coeur de nombreux débats politiques et scientifiques. Cette thèse constitue une mise en perspective des principes de REDD+ avec, comme cas d'étude, le Plateau des Guyanes. Dans un premier temps, on présentera l'établissement d'un modèle spatialisé de déforestation pour la Guyane française, insistant sur la nécessité de se focaliser sur les moteurs socio-économiques de la déforestation. Ce constat sera renforcé, dans un second temps, par l'étude de la déforestation liée à l'orpaillage à l'échelle de l'ensemble du Plateau des Guyanes, montrant un impact très fort du cours de l'or et des contextes politiques sur le niveau déforestation. Ces résultats alimenteront une discussion critique du mécanisme REDD+, basé sur la formulation de scénarios de référence potentiellement très variables et fondés sur des déterminants davantage politiques que scientifiques, ouvrant ainsi la porte à un potentiel chantage environnemental.

Since its appearance at the beginning of the 2000's, the Reduction of Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, known as REDD+, has gradually been admitted as an indispensable option for global policies aiming at tackling climate change. Relying on the concept of « avoided deforestation », it requires the formulation of a reference scenario aiming at evaluating efforts made by the countries involved in controlling their level of deforestation. Those scenarios are facing numerous political and scientific debates. This thesis aims at putting into perspective the principles of REDD+, based on a study site covering the Guiana Shield. In a first step, the formulation of a spatialiazed deforestation model over French Guiana will be presented, insisting on the necessity to focus on socio-economic drivers of deforestation. This statement will be reinforced, in a second step, by the the study of deforestation due to gold mining in the Guiana Shield, showing a very strong effect of gold prices and national political contexts on deforestation. These results finally contribute to a critical discussion on REDD+ mechanism, based on the formulation of very variable reference scenarios, relying more on political than on scientific determinants, and potentially enabling the emergence of environmental blackmailing. ; Depuis ses balbutiements au début des années 2000, la Réduction des Emissions liées à la Déforestation et la Dégradation forestière, plus connue sous le sigle REDD+, a peu à peu été admise comme un moyen indispensable des politiques globales de lutte contre le changement climatique. Reposant sur le concept de « déforestation évitée », elle nécessite la formulation d'un scénario de référence servant à évaluer les efforts des pays dans la maîtrise de leur niveau de déforestation. Ces scénarios sont au cœur de nombreux débats politiques et scientifiques. Cette thèse constitue une mise en perspective des principes de REDD+ avec, comme cas d'étude, le Plateau des Guyanes. Dans un premier temps, on présentera l'établissement d'un modèle spatialisé de déforestation pour la Guyane française, insistant sur la nécessité de se focaliser sur les moteurs socio-économiques de la déforestation. Ce constat sera renforcé, dans un second temps, par l'étude de la déforestation liée à l'orpaillage à l'échelle de l'ensemble du Plateau des Guyanes, montrant un impact très fort du cours de l'or et des contextes politiques sur le niveau déforestation. Ces résultats alimenteront une discussion critique du mécanisme REDD+, basé sur la formulation de scénarios de référence potentiellement très variables et fondés sur des déterminants davantage politiques que scientifiques, ouvrant ainsi la porte à un potentiel chantage environnemental.

Since its appearance at the beginning of the 2000's, the Reduction of Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, known as REDD+, has gradually been admitted as an indispensable option for global policies aiming at tackling climate change. Relying on the concept of « avoided deforestation », it requires the formulation of a reference scenario aiming at evaluating efforts made by the countries involved in controlling their level of deforestation. Those scenarios are facing numerous political and scientific debates. This thesis aims at putting into perspective the principles of REDD+, based on a study site covering the Guiana Shield. In a first step, the formulation of a spatialiazed deforestation model over French Guiana will be presented, insisting on the necessity to focus on socio-economic drivers of deforestation. This statement will be reinforced, in a second step, by the the study of deforestation due to gold mining in the Guiana Shield, showing a very strong effect of gold prices and national political contexts on deforestation. These results finally contribute to a critical discussion on REDD+ mechanism, based on the formulation of very variable reference scenarios, relying more on political than on scientific determinants, and potentially enabling the emergence of environmental blackmailing. ; Depuis ses balbutiements au début des années 2000, la Réduction des Emissions liées à la Déforestation et la Dégradation forestière, plus connue sous le sigle REDD+, a peu à peu été admise comme un moyen indispensable des politiques globales de lutte contre le changement climatique. Reposant sur le concept de « déforestation évitée », elle nécessite la formulation d'un scénario de référence servant à évaluer les efforts des pays dans la maîtrise de leur niveau de déforestation. Ces scénarios sont au cœur de nombreux débats politiques et scientifiques. Cette thèse constitue une mise en perspective des principes de REDD+ avec, comme cas d'étude, le Plateau des Guyanes. Dans un premier temps, on présentera l'établissement d'un modèle spatialisé de déforestation pour la Guyane française, insistant sur la nécessité de se focaliser sur les moteurs socio-économiques de la déforestation. Ce constat sera renforcé, dans un second temps, par l'étude de la déforestation liée à l'orpaillage à l'échelle de l'ensemble du Plateau des Guyanes, montrant un impact très fort du cours de l'or et des contextes politiques sur le niveau déforestation. Ces résultats alimenteront une discussion critique du mécanisme REDD+, basé sur la formulation de scénarios de référence potentiellement très variables et fondés sur des déterminants davantage politiques que scientifiques, ouvrant ainsi la porte à un potentiel chantage environnemental.

Since its appearance at the beginning of the 2000's, the Reduction of Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, known as REDD+, has gradually been admitted as an indispensable option for global policies aiming at tackling climate change. Relying on the concept of « avoided deforestation », it requires the formulation of a reference scenario aiming at evaluating efforts made by the countries involved in controlling their level of deforestation. Those scenarios are facing numerous political and scientific debates. This thesis aims at putting into perspective the principles of REDD+, based on a study site covering the Guiana Shield. In a first step, the formulation of a spatialiazed deforestation model over French Guiana will be presented, insisting on the necessity to focus on socio-economic drivers of deforestation. This statement will be reinforced, in a second step, by the the study of deforestation due to gold mining in the Guiana Shield, showing a very strong effect of gold prices and national political contexts on deforestation. These results finally contribute to a critical discussion on REDD+ mechanism, based on the formulation of very variable reference scenarios, relying more on political than on scientific determinants, and potentially enabling the emergence of environmental blackmailing. ; Depuis ses balbutiements au début des années 2000, la Réduction des Emissions liées à la Déforestation et la Dégradation forestière, plus connue sous le sigle REDD+, a peu à peu été admise comme un moyen indispensable des politiques globales de lutte contre le changement climatique. Reposant sur le concept de « déforestation évitée », elle nécessite la formulation d'un scénario de référence servant à évaluer les efforts des pays dans la maîtrise de leur niveau de déforestation. Ces scénarios sont au cœur de nombreux débats politiques et scientifiques. Cette thèse constitue une mise en perspective des principes de REDD+ avec, comme cas d'étude, le Plateau des Guyanes. Dans un premier temps, on présentera l'établissement d'un modèle spatialisé de déforestation pour la Guyane française, insistant sur la nécessité de se focaliser sur les moteurs socio-économiques de la déforestation. Ce constat sera renforcé, dans un second temps, par l'étude de la déforestation liée à l'orpaillage à l'échelle de l'ensemble du Plateau des Guyanes, montrant un impact très fort du cours de l'or et des contextes politiques sur le niveau déforestation. Ces résultats alimenteront une discussion critique du mécanisme REDD+, basé sur la formulation de scénarios de référence potentiellement très variables et fondés sur des déterminants davantage politiques que scientifiques, ouvrant ainsi la porte à un potentiel chantage environnemental.

Since its appearance at the beginning of the 2000's, the Reduction of Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, known as REDD+, has gradually been admitted as an indispensable option for global policies aiming at tackling climate change. Relying on the concept of « avoided deforestation », it requires the formulation of a reference scenario aiming at evaluating efforts made by the countries involved in controlling their level of deforestation. Those scenarios are facing numerous political and scientific debates. This thesis aims at putting into perspective the principles of REDD+, based on a study site covering the Guiana Shield. In a first step, the formulation of a spatialiazed deforestation model over French Guiana will be presented, insisting on the necessity to focus on socio-economic drivers of deforestation. This statement will be reinforced, in a second step, by the the study of deforestation due to gold mining in the Guiana Shield, showing a very strong effect of gold prices and national political contexts on deforestation. These results finally contribute to a critical discussion on REDD+ mechanism, based on the formulation of very variable reference scenarios, relying more on political than on scientific determinants, and potentially enabling the emergence of environmental blackmailing. ; Depuis ses balbutiements au début des années 2000, la Réduction des Emissions liées à la Déforestation et la Dégradation forestière, plus connue sous le sigle REDD+, a peu à peu été admise comme un moyen indispensable des politiques globales de lutte contre le changement climatique. Reposant sur le concept de « déforestation évitée », elle nécessite la formulation d'un scénario de référence servant à évaluer les efforts des pays dans la maîtrise de leur niveau de déforestation. Ces scénarios sont au cœur de nombreux débats politiques et scientifiques. Cette thèse constitue une mise en perspective des principes de REDD+ avec, comme cas d'étude, le Plateau des Guyanes. Dans un premier temps, on présentera ...

BACKGROUND: REDD+ is being questioned by the particular status of High Forest/Low Deforestation countries. Indeed, the formulation of reference levels is made difficult by the confrontation of low historical deforestation records with the forest transition theory on the one hand. On the other hand, those countries might formulate incredibly high deforestation scenarios to ensure large payments even in case of inaction. RESULTS: Using a wide range of scenarios within the Guiana Shield, from methods involving basic assumptions made from past deforestation, to explicit modelling of deforestation using relevant socio-economic variables at the regional scale, we show that the most common methodologies predict huge increases in deforestation, unlikely to happen given the existing socio-economic situation. More importantly, it is unlikely that funds provided under most of these scenarios could compensate for the total cost of avoided deforestation in the region, including social and economic costs. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that a useful and efficient international mechanism should really focus on removing the underlying political and socio-economic forces of deforestation rather than on hypothetical result-based payments estimated from very questionable reference levels.

International audience ; Background: REDD+ is being questioned by the particular status of High Forest/Low Deforestation countries. Indeed, the formulation of reference levels is made difficult by the confrontation of low historical deforestation records with the forest transition theory on the one hand. On the other hand, those countries might formulate incred‑ibly high deforestation scenarios to ensure large payments even in case of inaction. Results: Using a wide range of scenarios within the Guiana Shield, from methods involving basic assumptions made from past deforestation, to explicit modelling of deforestation using relevant socio‑economic variables at the regional scale, we show that the most common methodologies predict huge increases in deforestation, unlikely to happen given the existing socio‑economic situation. More importantly, it is unlikely that funds provided under most of these scenarios could compensate for the total cost of avoided deforestation in the region, including social and economic costs. Conclusion: This study suggests that a useful and efficient international mechanism should really focus on removing the underlying political and socio‑economic forces of deforestation rather than on hypothetical result‑based pay‑ments estimated from very questionable reference levels.

Background: REDD+ is being questioned by the particular status of High Forest/Low Deforestation countries. Indeed, the formulation of reference levels is made difficult by the confrontation of low historical deforestation records with the forest transition theory on the one hand. On the other hand, those countries might formulate incredibly high deforestation scenarios to ensure large payments even in case of inaction. Results: Using a wide range of scenarios within the Guiana Shield, from methods involving basic assumptions made from past deforestation, to explicit modelling of deforestation using relevant socio-economic variables at the regional scale, we show that the most common methodologies predict huge increases in deforestation, unlikely to happen given the existing socio-economic situation. More importantly, it is unlikely that funds provided under most of these scenarios could compensate for the total cost of avoided deforestation in the region, including social and economic costs. Conclusion: This study suggests that a useful and efficient international mechanism should really focus on removing the underlying political and socio-economic forces of deforestation rather than on hypothetical result-based payments estimated from very questionable reference levels.

International audience ; Background: REDD+ is being questioned by the particular status of High Forest/Low Deforestation countries. Indeed, the formulation of reference levels is made difficult by the confrontation of low historical deforestation records with the forest transition theory on the one hand. On the other hand, those countries might formulate incred‑ibly high deforestation scenarios to ensure large payments even in case of inaction. Results: Using a wide range of scenarios within the Guiana Shield, from methods involving basic assumptions made from past deforestation, to explicit modelling of deforestation using relevant socio‑economic variables at the regional scale, we show that the most common methodologies predict huge increases in deforestation, unlikely to happen given the existing socio‑economic situation. More importantly, it is unlikely that funds provided under most of these scenarios could compensate for the total cost of avoided deforestation in the region, including social and economic costs. Conclusion: This study suggests that a useful and efficient international mechanism should really focus on removing the underlying political and socio‑economic forces of deforestation rather than on hypothetical result‑based pay‑ments estimated from very questionable reference levels.

International audience ; Background: REDD+ is being questioned by the particular status of High Forest/Low Deforestation countries. Indeed, the formulation of reference levels is made difficult by the confrontation of low historical deforestation records with the forest transition theory on the one hand. On the other hand, those countries might formulate incred‑ibly high deforestation scenarios to ensure large payments even in case of inaction. Results: Using a wide range of scenarios within the Guiana Shield, from methods involving basic assumptions made from past deforestation, to explicit modelling of deforestation using relevant socio‑economic variables at the regional scale, we show that the most common methodologies predict huge increases in deforestation, unlikely to happen given the existing socio‑economic situation. More importantly, it is unlikely that funds provided under most of these scenarios could compensate for the total cost of avoided deforestation in the region, including social and economic costs. Conclusion: This study suggests that a useful and efficient international mechanism should really focus on removing the underlying political and socio‑economic forces of deforestation rather than on hypothetical result‑based pay‑ments estimated from very questionable reference levels.

International audience ; Background: REDD+ is being questioned by the particular status of High Forest/Low Deforestation countries. Indeed, the formulation of reference levels is made difficult by the confrontation of low historical deforestation records with the forest transition theory on the one hand. On the other hand, those countries might formulate incred‑ibly high deforestation scenarios to ensure large payments even in case of inaction. Results: Using a wide range of scenarios within the Guiana Shield, from methods involving basic assumptions made from past deforestation, to explicit modelling of deforestation using relevant socio‑economic variables at the regional scale, we show that the most common methodologies predict huge increases in deforestation, unlikely to happen given the existing socio‑economic situation. More importantly, it is unlikely that funds provided under most of these scenarios could compensate for the total cost of avoided deforestation in the region, including social and economic costs. Conclusion: This study suggests that a useful and efficient international mechanism should really focus on removing the underlying political and socio‑economic forces of deforestation rather than on hypothetical result‑based pay‑ments estimated from very questionable reference levels.

International audience ; Background: REDD+ is being questioned by the particular status of High Forest/Low Deforestation countries. Indeed, the formulation of reference levels is made difficult by the confrontation of low historical deforestation records with the forest transition theory on the one hand. On the other hand, those countries might formulate incred‑ibly high deforestation scenarios to ensure large payments even in case of inaction. Results: Using a wide range of scenarios within the Guiana Shield, from methods involving basic assumptions made from past deforestation, to explicit modelling of deforestation using relevant socio‑economic variables at the regional scale, we show that the most common methodologies predict huge increases in deforestation, unlikely to happen given the existing socio‑economic situation. More importantly, it is unlikely that funds provided under most of these scenarios could compensate for the total cost of avoided deforestation in the region, including social and economic costs. Conclusion: This study suggests that a useful and efficient international mechanism should really focus on removing the underlying political and socio‑economic forces of deforestation rather than on hypothetical result‑based pay‑ments estimated from very questionable reference levels.

International audience ; Background: REDD+ is being questioned by the particular status of High Forest/Low Deforestation countries. Indeed, the formulation of reference levels is made difficult by the confrontation of low historical deforestation records with the forest transition theory on the one hand. On the other hand, those countries might formulate incred‑ibly high deforestation scenarios to ensure large payments even in case of inaction. Results: Using a wide range of scenarios within the Guiana Shield, from methods involving basic assumptions made from past deforestation, to explicit modelling of deforestation using relevant socio‑economic variables at the regional scale, we show that the most common methodologies predict huge increases in deforestation, unlikely to happen given the existing socio‑economic situation. More importantly, it is unlikely that funds provided under most of these scenarios could compensate for the total cost of avoided deforestation in the region, including social and economic costs. Conclusion: This study suggests that a useful and efficient international mechanism should really focus on removing the underlying political and socio‑economic forces of deforestation rather than on hypothetical result‑based pay‑ments estimated from very questionable reference levels.

Small-scale gold-mining has been the major driver of last decade deforestation within the Guiana Shield, one of the least degraded tropical forests in the world. Its social and environmental impacts are diverse and severe: water pollution due to turbidity and mercury, over-hunting in remote and preserved areas, insecurity, prostitution or malaria expansion. Deforestation is another direct effect of small-scale gold-mining, being also the easiest way of assessing its expansion. Using deforestation maps produced by Hansen et al. (2013) and additional Landsat based dataset during the 90's, we provide a long term assessment of deforestation due to small-scale gold-mining between 1990 and 2014 in the Guiana Shield. Quasi-annual measurements of deforestation over the whole region show a very strong exponential relationship between deforestation due to small-scale gold-mining and gold-prices, explaining its massive increase until years 2012-13, when both prices and deforestation started to drop. This highly dynamic relationship suggests low level of governance at the regional scale and raises the question of the ability of local countries to efficiently limit their level of deforestation in eventual REDD+ like projects. A focus on each country's situation shows very different temporal patterns of deforestation between French Guiana and both Suriname and Guyana. While deforestation in the two last countries follows gold prices from the beginning until the end of the period; small-scale gold-mining activity in French Guiana seems to be sharply increasing until 2004. Then, the pressure of military interventions against illegal mining, helped by a regular monitoring using remote sensing techniques (Mining Activity Observatory managed by the French Forest Service), probably overcomes the price effect. Studying the efficiency of local policy in reducing deforestation and associated carbon emissions is of major importance to assess the ratio between economic costs and environmental benefits of such interventions. Looking at potential deforestation leakages between countries as a response to local management is also a necessity to improve environmental governance at the regional scale. (Texte intégral)