Suchergebnisse

Foreign inflows are important sources of income that many African governments use to finance public investments and to support the development of manufacturing or export-oriented service sectors. Yet the recent growth experience of many African economies shows that domestic-oriented industry (construction, utilities) and services have become the largest sectors. Using Ghana and its newly found oil as an example, we analyze the dynamic relationship between increasing foreign inflows and economic growth and structural change by developing a multisector intertemporal general equilibrium model. We find that the sudden increase in petrodollars used to finance either the government's recurrent spending or public investment generates a substantial short-run growth shock consistent with the Dutch disease theory. Opposed short-run effects on the growth of the tradable and nontraded sectors lead the structure of the economy to become more domestic oriented. The creation of an oil fund helps reduce the negative growth and structural effect, while in the longer term, if oil spending does not enhance productivity, growth declines and the GDP share of the nontraded sector further increases. Smart use of oil revenue thus not only involves the creation of an oil fund but also spending inflows on productivity-enhancing investment. Whether public investments can help overcome Dutch disease effects also depends on the growth magnitude of the inflows. At the same level of investment-to-productivity-growth efficiency, public investments take longer to overcome the negative growth effects the higher the growth rate of inflows. This paper further shows that the structural effect of foreign inflows on economic development is a long-term challenge for Africa. The domestic-oriented economic structure can become a persistent phenomenon for countries that continue to receive foreign inflows in the form of petrodollars or in any other form. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; GRP32 ; DSGD

With the aid of an intertemporal, multi-region general equilibrium model, the authors study issues of agricultural trade liberalization, growth and capital accumulation in the context of a world economy moving towards a multi-polar structure. They specifically focus on Turkey, the European Union, the Middle East, and the Economies in Transition; and study alternative scenarios of formation of customs unions and increased trade orientation. The model is based on intertemporal general equilibrium theory with Ramsey-type dynamics. The world economy is fully endogenized within a 9-region specification, with Turkey, EU, Middle East and the Transition Economies constituting as one of the indigenous regions. A key feature of the model is its explicit recognition of both the commodity and foreign capital flows across regions in an endogenous setting, and its explicit portrayal of the out-of-steady state dynamics under an intertemporal optimization framework. They explore the short- versus the long-run economic impacts of alternative trade and investment policies on agricultural production, foreign trade, resource allocation, accumulation, consumer welfare, and income distribution in the regions of analyis. The results reveal significant gains from increased bilateral trade between the identified regions, and further underscore the crucial importance of financing commodity trade deficits in sustaining the accumulation patterns. ; IFPRI4 ; TMD ; Non-PR

The authors use a growth accounting method to assess the growth of the rice, wheat, corn, and soybean market in China between 1978 and 1997 and make projections on future trends based on current governmental policies. The authors estimate the supply response of the four grains using a multiproduct framework. ; IFPRI4 ; DSGD ; Non-PR

With the aid of an intertemporal, multi-region general equilibrium model, the authors study issues of agricultural trade liberalization, growth and capital accumulation in the context of a world economy moving towards a multi-polar structure. They specifically focus on Turkey, the European Union, the Middle East, and the Economies in Transition; and study alternative scenarios of formation of customs unions and increased trade orientation. The model is based on intertemporal general equilibrium theory with Ramsey-type dynamics. The world economy is fully endogenized within a 9-region specification, with Turkey, EU, Middle East and the Transition Economies constituting as one of the indigenous regions. A key feature of the model is its explicit recognition of both the commodity and foreign capital flows across regions in an endogenous setting, and its explicit portrayal of the out-of-steady state dynamics under an intertemporal optimization framework. They explore the short- versus the long-run economic impacts of alternative trade and investment policies on agricultural production, foreign trade, resource allocation, accumulation, consumer welfare, and income distribution in the regions of analyis. The results reveal significant gains from increased bilateral trade between the identified regions, and further underscore the crucial importance of financing commodity trade deficits in sustaining the accumulation patterns. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1 ; TMD

The gains to developing countries from agricultural reform in developed countries is found to benefit most, even the net food importers, although the gains vary depending on a country s trade pattern. This results because the agricultural policy of a small number of developed countries cause the major distortions in world markets, and developing countries whose major share of agricultural trade is with the E.U. are impacted quite differently than those trading with the U.S. Even though Japan and Korea maintain high trade barriers, these barriers are found to have small effects on developing countries. The long-run benefits of reform are found to greatly exceed the short-run gains. ; ISI; IFPRI3; Markets and Trade ; TMD ; PR

This paper analyzes the implication of economic structural change and dietary transformation on changing patterns of agri-food trade among 17 Asian development countries. Sub-regional trade in Central, South, and Southeast Asia is the focus of the paper, along with trade with other partners outside the sub-regions. The paper finds that Asian markets for total agri-food exports and exports of nutritious foods are generally more important than the markets outside of Asia and for many of them, the importance of Asian markets increases over time. While net exporters and importers co-exist in each sub-region, with a few exceptions, sub-regional trade is often less important. Many small countries trade only with one or two large neighbors and less so with each other. The dietary transformation impacts trade in nutritious foods in diverse ways. With income growth, increased domestic demand for nutritious foods seem to lead to more imports of these foods. While many South and Southeast Asian countries have a comparative advantage in exports of some nutritious food products, growth in these exports can be negatively affected by rising domestic demand. Although nutritious food exports continue to play important roles in total agri-food exports, export growth of nutritious food is often slower than overall growth of agri-food exports. The dietary transformation also seems to lead to increases in demand for processed foods which many Asian countries meet through imports, often, accounting for a large component of total agri-food imports. On the other hand, processed foods generally account for a small portion of agri-food exports. However, there are a few countries where processed food export growth is rapid. In these cases, the sub-regional market is expanding, but with few exceptions, it is still less important than trade with countries outside the sub-regions. The paper also finds that agri-food exports and imports are highly concentrated, and a small group of commodities dominate most countries export and import portfolios and remain unchanged over time. The main markets for these important commodities are generally not in the sub-regions and this mismatch between demand and supply of agri-food commodities within sub-region is a natural barrier for promoting regional trade. The modified trade complementary index developed in this paper is based on Michaely (1996) and shows that trade complementarity measures are positively correlated with actual bilateral trade. Small countries tend to enjoy higher levels of complementarity with one or two large trading partners than with other small countries in the same sub-region. This implies that small countries could be better off from bilateral trade arrangements with large partners compared to a regional trade agreement within the sub-region. Because the sub-regional market is oftentimes not large enough to meet large countries' import demand or consume their export supply, regional trade agreements within sub-regions may be less likely to serve their needs for trade expansion than negotiating with large trading partners outside the sub-regions. While many Asian developing countries' governments have been pushing for trade diversification and want to reduce export dependencies concentrated on one or two large trading partners, this paper shows the challenges to achieve this policy goal. For small countries, focusing on bilateral trade arrangements with their dominant trading partners seems to be a more practical and effective strategy than regional trade agreements within sub-regions. Long-term trade arrangements, consistent trade policies, and various preferential trade arrangements should be pursued by small countries with their larger trading partners to promote agri-food exports. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; CRP2; DCA; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies ; DSGD; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

As in most countries in Africa, agricultural mechanization in Ghana was slow to develop until the 1990s; however, this has changed markedly since the early 2000s. According to the nationally representative Labor Force Survey conducted in 2015/2016, about one third of Ghana's crop-growing farmers, including smallholders, reported using some form of machinery, mostly tractors for land preparation. Still, policymakers are concerned that mechanization should be proceeding at a faster rate and worry that supply-side issues may be constraining its uptake, especially among smallholders. With this in mind, the government recently started to directly re-engage the promotion of mechanization, devoting public resources to directly subsidize machinery imports and to establish a network of subsidized agricultural mechanization service centers around the country (Diao et al. 2014). Parallel with these government programs is the rapid development of private-sector supply systems, through which an increased number of secondhand tractors were imported and purchased by relatively large-scale farmers. In turn, these farmers provide hiring services to smaller-scale farmers for use mainly in land preparation, harvesting, and threshing. In this chapter, we review recent developments in the uptake of agricultural mechanization in Ghana and the factors driving the growth in farmers' demand. We then discuss alternative supply models in the country, comparing them with recent government interventions. This leads to our conclusions about appropriate mechanization policies for the future. ; PR ; IFPRI4; CRP2 ; DSGD; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

The COVID-19 pandemic and government lockdown in Myanmar have led to falling exports and lost revenue from tourism and international remittances, hitting the economy hard. In a new series of policy notes, we examine the economic impacts of the pandemic and restrictive measures to mitigate the health crisis, and offer policy recommendations to address declining incomes and other impacts. Our analysis shows a major short-term economic contraction as a result of the two-week lockdown in April — a 41% decline in GDP along with similar declines in most nonagricultural sectors in comparison to the same period without a pandemic. This is not surprising, as Myanmar's economy is deeply integrated into a complex supply network both domestically and internationally, and policies affecting certain industries have ripple effects on other sectors through supply and demand linkages. In addition, approximately 4 million Myanmar migrants work internationally, and their lost income due to lockdowns in neighboring countries is expected to impose ongoing significant burdens on low-income households that receive remittances. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI4 ; DSGD

With policy measures imposed by governments around the world to contain and prevent the spread of COVID 19, global and domestic economic activities and trade flows have been interrupted. The unexpected shocks of COVID 19 negatively affect not only Myanmar's economy, but also the livelihoods of Myanmar households. This Working Paper assesses such impacts at the household level using a microsimulation model based on the Myanmar Poverty and Living Conditions Survey (MPLCS) conducted in 2015. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; CRP2; MAPSA; MyanmarSSP; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies ; DSGD; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)