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International audience ; Préface à l'ouvrage de François Facchini sur les dépenses publiques en France dans une perspective historique et comparative

International audience ; Préface à l'ouvrage de François Facchini sur les dépenses publiques en France dans une perspective historique et comparative

Le 16 septembre 2020 on célèbrera le 40 ème anniversaire de la mort de Jean Piaget (1896-1980). Cette contribution rend hommage à l'épistémologue, biologiste et psychologue, à son analyse systémique, à sa classification hiérarchique des différents niveaux de régulation comme source d'inspiration originale pour mes propres travaux en cliométrie de la croissance et des cycles économiques. Codes JEL : A12, B25, B31, B41, N00

L'application de l'analyse spectrale au domaine cliométrique a été jusqu'à présent restreinte. Dans cet article, elle est employée pour déterminer, en comparaison internationale, la périodicité des séries du PIB sur le long terme. Après avoir rappelé la méthodologie spectrale (I), nous examinerons les séries retenues, le traitement de ces séries et les résultats de l'analyse cliométrique (II). Nous montrons ensuite les perspectives macroéconomiques de ce type d'approche et synthétisons un résultat majeur, à savoir l'existence d'un cycle intermédiaire unique de type Kuznets, en contradiction avec le discours académique relatif à la datation des fameux cycles de type Kondratieff.

"That cliometrics is an indispensable tool in the study of economic history is no longer a very controversial statement. It is now generally agreed that economic theory, combined with new data as well as historical, statistical and mathematical methods are necessary at the theoretical level, to formulate problems precisely, to draw conclusions from postulates and to gain insight into workings of complicated processes and, at the applied level, to measure variables, to estimates parameters and to organize the elaborate calculations involved in reaching empirical results. This article is an illustration of the author's belief in this principle." (author's abstract)

Douglass North offers an interesting alternative when he suggests that institutions and the resulting organisations play an essential role in explaining the economic performance of nations. Among these organisations, as an extension of North's work, we find educational systems and in particular university systems. According to the type of institutions, these organisations act either towards increased competition, innovation, the search for productivity and entrepreneurship, or on the contrary towards rent seeking activities,
thus discouraging productive activities.

"This paper is devoted to Robert Fogel, the spiritual and/or intellectual son of Simon Kuznets. Master in cliometrics, he is the winner (with Douglass North) of the 1993 Nobel Memorial Prize in economics for having renewed research in economic history by applying economic theory and quantitative methods in order to explain economic and institutional change." (author's abstract)

"According to Finley, markets and economic motivations played little, if any, role in ancient economies. Status and civic ideology governed the allocation of scarce resources. Hence, the application of economic theory to the ancient economy was at best a futile exercise and at worst a source of grave misunderstandings. Temin's contributions lead to other conclusions and, as in the myth of Sisyphus, the boulder seems again to be at the bottom of the hill! The author's feeling is that the Gordian knot remains the same now as over the past decades: should cliometrics be used in the social sciences/humanities in general, and ancient history especially?" (author's abstract)

'This article produces a new estimate of aggregate wage earnings in Germany from 1810 to 1989. Wages play a fundamental role in the determination of economic equilibria. They form an essential component of household incomes and have a direct effect in the setting of final demand and savings. Determinants in company production costs, their movements affecting the behaviour of businesses in price setting, employment and investment. Their multiple effects on physical flows and on monetary magnitudes mean that wages and the way in which they are set are central to the short-term regulation and long-term evolution of developed capitalist economies. However, in Germany for example, although the statistics on wages and the occupations of workers are plentiful and varied, their heterogeneity and the gaps in them mean that it is not possible to obtain a rapid and accurate appraisal of the mass of wages distributed over a long period. The difficulties increase further when breakdowns that display a degree of aggregation are required for specific subgroups: occupational sectors, professional categories, regions, etc. Taking up this point, this article has one main purpose. It aims at developing a reassessment of the long-term movements of wages and wage-earners and thus to obtain an original estimate of aggregate wage earnings in Germany from 1810 to 1989. The points are addressed in three parts. The first defines the concept of wages. The second presents the spatial field covered. The third describes the methodological constraints and shows our cliometric results.' (text extract)|

Cet article a pour but principal de dégager les lignes directrices et les principes méthodologiques de la pensée conjoncturelle, toujours actuelle (sans paralogisme), d'Arthur Spiethoff, trop souvent ignorée ou plus simplement méconnue en-dehors du monde universitaire de langue allemande. Après une présentation du modèle théorique d'Arthur Spiethoff, nous discuterons sa portée empirique.

'Dieser Artikel fasst ein neues ökonometrisches Verfahren für wirtschaftshistorische (kliometrische) Shockanalyse zusammen: die outliers Methodologie.' (Autorenreferat)