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AbstractMethane directly contributes to air pollution, as an ozone precursor, and to climate change, generating physical and economic damages to different systems, namely agriculture, vegetation, energy, human health, or biodiversity. The methane-related damages to climate, measured as the Social Cost of Methane, and to human health have been analyzed by different studies and considered by government rulemaking in the last decades, but the ozone-related damages to crop revenues associated to methane emissions have not been incorporated to policy agenda. Using a combination of the Global Change Analysis Model and the TM5-FASST Scenario Screening Tool, we estimate that global marginal agricultural damages range from ~ 423 to 556 $2010/t-CH4, of which 98 $2010/t-CH4 occur in the USA, which is the most affected region due to its role as a major crop producer, followed by China, EU-15, and India. These damages would represent 39–59% of the climate damages and 28–64% of the human health damages associated with methane emissions by previous studies. The marginal damages to crop revenues calculated in this study complement the damages from methane to climate and human health, and provides valuable information to be considered in future cost-benefits analyses.

Cheap and abundant coal fuelled the industrialization of Europe, North America and Asia1. However, the price tag on coal has never reflected the external cost to society; coal combustion produces more than a third of today's global CO2 emissions and is a major contributor to local adverse effects on the environment and public health, such as biodiversity loss and respiratory diseases. Here, we show that phasing out coal yields substantial local environmental and health benefits that outweigh the direct policy costs due to shortening of the energy supply. Phasing out coal is thus a no-regret strategy for most world regions, even when only accounting for domestic effects and neglecting the global benefits from slowing climate change. Our results suggest that these domestic effects potentially eliminate much of the free-rider problem caused by the discrepancy between the national burden of decarbonization costs and the internationally shared benefits of climate change impact mitigation. This, combined with the profound effect of closing around half of the global CO2 emissions gap towards the 2 °C target, makes coal phase-out policies attractive candidates for the iterative strengthening of the nationally determined contributions pledged by the countries under the Paris Agreement. ; BMBF, 03SFK4P0, Verbundvorhaben ENavi: Energiewende-Navigationssystem zur Erfassung, Analyse und Simulation der systemischen Vernetzungen" - Teilvorhaben P0 ; BMBF, 01LP1928C, China-Pilotprojekte - Verbundprojekt: Integrierte empirische Analyse von Klimaschutzmaßnahmen und lokaler Luftverschmutzung (INTEGRATE), Teilprojekt 3: Berücksichtigung von verschiedenen Luftreinhaltungspolitiken mit dem Fokus auf regionalem Vergleich ; BMBF, 01LA1826C, Ökonomie des Klimawandels - Verbundprojekt: Die politische Ökonomie eines globalen Kohleausstiegs (PEGASOS) - Teilprojekt 3: Modellierung und Szenarienanalysen

International audience ; The EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research) v4.3 global anthropogenic emissions inventory of several gaseous (SO2, NOx, CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) and NH3) and particulate (PM10, PM2.5, black and organic carbon (BC and OC)) air pollutants for the period 1970–2010 is used to develop retrospective air pollution emission scenarios to quantify the roles and contributions of changes in fuels consumption, technology, end-of-pipe emission reduction measures and their resulting impact on health and crop yields. This database presents changes in activity data, fuels and air pollution abatement technology for the past 4 decades, using international statistics and following guidelines for bottom-up emission inventory at the Tier 1 and Tier 2 levels with region-specific default values. With two further retrospective scenarios we assess (1) the impact of the technology and end-of-pipe (EOP) reduction measures in the European Union (EU) by considering a stagnation of technology with constant emission factors from 1970 and with no further abatement measures and improvement in European emissions standards, but fuel consumption occurring at historical pace, and (2) the impact of increased fuel consumption by considering unchanged energy use with constant fuel consumption since 1970, but technological development and end-of-pipe reductions. Our scenario analysis focuses on the three most important and most regulated sectors (power generation, the manufacturing industry and road transport), which are subject of multi-pollutant EU Air Quality regulations. If technology and European EOP reduction measures had stagnated at 1970 levels, EU air quality in 2010 would have suffered from 129 % higher SO2, 71 % higher NOx and 69 % higher PM2.5 emissions, demonstrating the large role of technology in reducing emissions in 2010. However, if fuel consumption had remained constant starting in 1970, the EU would have benefited from current technology and emission control standards, with reductions in NOx by even 13 % more. Such further savings are not observed for SO2 and PM2.5. If the EU consumed the same amount of fuels as in 1970 but with the current technology and emission control standards, then the emissions of SO2 and PM2.5 would be 42 % respectively 10 % higher. This scenario shows the importance for air quality of abandoning heavy residual fuel oil and shifting fuel types (from, e.g., coal to gas) in the EU. A reduced-form TM5-FASST (Fast Screening Scenario Tool based on the global chemical Transport Model 5) is applied to calculate regional and global levels of aerosol and ozone concentrations and to assess the impact of air quality improvements on human health and crop yield loss, showing substantial impacts of export of EU technologies and standards to other world regions.

International audience ; The EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research) v4.3 global anthropogenic emissions inventory of several gaseous (SO2, NOx, CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) and NH3) and particulate (PM10, PM2.5, black and organic carbon (BC and OC)) air pollutants for the period 1970–2010 is used to develop retrospective air pollution emission scenarios to quantify the roles and contributions of changes in fuels consumption, technology, end-of-pipe emission reduction measures and their resulting impact on health and crop yields. This database presents changes in activity data, fuels and air pollution abatement technology for the past 4 decades, using international statistics and following guidelines for bottom-up emission inventory at the Tier 1 and Tier 2 levels with region-specific default values. With two further retrospective scenarios we assess (1) the impact of the technology and end-of-pipe (EOP) reduction measures in the European Union (EU) by considering a stagnation of technology with constant emission factors from 1970 and with no further abatement measures and improvement in European emissions standards, but fuel consumption occurring at historical pace, and (2) the impact of increased fuel consumption by considering unchanged energy use with constant fuel consumption since 1970, but technological development and end-of-pipe reductions. Our scenario analysis focuses on the three most important and most regulated sectors (power generation, the manufacturing industry and road transport), which are subject of multi-pollutant EU Air Quality regulations. If technology and European EOP reduction measures had stagnated at 1970 levels, EU air quality in 2010 would have suffered from 129 % higher SO2, 71 % higher NOx and 69 % higher PM2.5 emissions, demonstrating the large role of technology in reducing emissions in 2010. However, if fuel consumption had remained constant starting in 1970, the EU would have benefited from current technology and emission control ...

International audience ; The EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research) v4.3 global anthropogenic emissions inventory of several gaseous (SO2, NOx, CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) and NH3) and particulate (PM10, PM2.5, black and organic carbon (BC and OC)) air pollutants for the period 1970–2010 is used to develop retrospective air pollution emission scenarios to quantify the roles and contributions of changes in fuels consumption, technology, end-of-pipe emission reduction measures and their resulting impact on health and crop yields. This database presents changes in activity data, fuels and air pollution abatement technology for the past 4 decades, using international statistics and following guidelines for bottom-up emission inventory at the Tier 1 and Tier 2 levels with region-specific default values. With two further retrospective scenarios we assess (1) the impact of the technology and end-of-pipe (EOP) reduction measures in the European Union (EU) by considering a stagnation of technology with constant emission factors from 1970 and with no further abatement measures and improvement in European emissions standards, but fuel consumption occurring at historical pace, and (2) the impact of increased fuel consumption by considering unchanged energy use with constant fuel consumption since 1970, but technological development and end-of-pipe reductions. Our scenario analysis focuses on the three most important and most regulated sectors (power generation, the manufacturing industry and road transport), which are subject of multi-pollutant EU Air Quality regulations. If technology and European EOP reduction measures had stagnated at 1970 levels, EU air quality in 2010 would have suffered from 129 % higher SO2, 71 % higher NOx and 69 % higher PM2.5 emissions, demonstrating the large role of technology in reducing emissions in 2010. However, if fuel consumption had remained constant starting in 1970, the EU would have benefited from current technology and emission control standards, with reductions in NOx by even 13 % more. Such further savings are not observed for SO2 and PM2.5. If the EU consumed the same amount of fuels as in 1970 but with the current technology and emission control standards, then the emissions of SO2 and PM2.5 would be 42 % respectively 10 % higher. This scenario shows the importance for air quality of abandoning heavy residual fuel oil and shifting fuel types (from, e.g., coal to gas) in the EU. A reduced-form TM5-FASST (Fast Screening Scenario Tool based on the global chemical Transport Model 5) is applied to calculate regional and global levels of aerosol and ozone concentrations and to assess the impact of air quality improvements on human health and crop yield loss, showing substantial impacts of export of EU technologies and standards to other world regions.

International audience The EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research) v4.3 global anthropogenic emissions inventory of several gaseous (SO2, NOx, CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) and NH3) and particulate (PM10, PM2.5, black and organic carbon (BC and OC)) air pollutants for the period 1970–2010 is used to develop retrospective air pollution emission scenarios to quantify the roles and contributions of changes in fuels consumption, technology, end-of-pipe emission reduction measures and their resulting impact on health and crop yields. This database presents changes in activity data, fuels and air pollution abatement technology for the past 4 decades, using international statistics and following guidelines for bottom-up emission inventory at the Tier 1 and Tier 2 levels with region-specific default values. With two further retrospective scenarios we assess (1) the impact of the technology and end-of-pipe (EOP) reduction measures in the European Union (EU) by considering a stagnation of technology with constant emission factors from 1970 and with no further abatement measures and improvement in European emissions standards, but fuel consumption occurring at historical pace, and (2) the impact of increased fuel consumption by considering unchanged energy use with constant fuel consumption since 1970, but technological development and end-of-pipe reductions. Our scenario analysis focuses on the three most important and most regulated sectors (power generation, the manufacturing industry and road transport), which are subject of multi-pollutant EU Air Quality regulations. If technology and European EOP reduction measures had stagnated at 1970 levels, EU air quality in 2010 would have suffered from 129 % higher SO2, 71 % higher NOx and 69 % higher PM2.5 emissions, demonstrating the large role of technology in reducing emissions in 2010. However, if fuel consumption had remained constant starting in 1970, the EU would have benefited from current technology and emission control ...

International audience ; The EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research) v4.3 global anthropogenic emissions inventory of several gaseous (SO2, NOx, CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) and NH3) and particulate (PM10, PM2.5, black and organic carbon (BC and OC)) air pollutants for the period 1970–2010 is used to develop retrospective air pollution emission scenarios to quantify the roles and contributions of changes in fuels consumption, technology, end-of-pipe emission reduction measures and their resulting impact on health and crop yields. This database presents changes in activity data, fuels and air pollution abatement technology for the past 4 decades, using international statistics and following guidelines for bottom-up emission inventory at the Tier 1 and Tier 2 levels with region-specific default values. With two further retrospective scenarios we assess (1) the impact of the technology and end-of-pipe (EOP) reduction measures in the European Union (EU) by considering a stagnation of technology with constant emission factors from 1970 and with no further abatement measures and improvement in European emissions standards, but fuel consumption occurring at historical pace, and (2) the impact of increased fuel consumption by considering unchanged energy use with constant fuel consumption since 1970, but technological development and end-of-pipe reductions. Our scenario analysis focuses on the three most important and most regulated sectors (power generation, the manufacturing industry and road transport), which are subject of multi-pollutant EU Air Quality regulations. If technology and European EOP reduction measures had stagnated at 1970 levels, EU air quality in 2010 would have suffered from 129 % higher SO2, 71 % higher NOx and 69 % higher PM2.5 emissions, demonstrating the large role of technology in reducing emissions in 2010. However, if fuel consumption had remained constant starting in 1970, the EU would have benefited from current technology and emission control standards, with reductions in NOx by even 13 % more. Such further savings are not observed for SO2 and PM2.5. If the EU consumed the same amount of fuels as in 1970 but with the current technology and emission control standards, then the emissions of SO2 and PM2.5 would be 42 % respectively 10 % higher. This scenario shows the importance for air quality of abandoning heavy residual fuel oil and shifting fuel types (from, e.g., coal to gas) in the EU. A reduced-form TM5-FASST (Fast Screening Scenario Tool based on the global chemical Transport Model 5) is applied to calculate regional and global levels of aerosol and ozone concentrations and to assess the impact of air quality improvements on human health and crop yield loss, showing substantial impacts of export of EU technologies and standards to other world regions.

We use the ECHAM-HAMMOZ aerosol-climate model to assess the effects of black carbon (BC) mitigation measures on Arctic climate. To this end we constructed several mitigation scenarios that implement all currently existing legislation and then implement further reductions of BC in a successively increasing global area, starting from the eight member states of the Arctic Council, expanding to its active observer states, then to all observer states, and finally to the entire globe. These scenarios also account for the reduction of the co-emitted organic carbon (OC) and sulfate (SU). We find that, even though the additional BC emission reductions in the member states of the Arctic Council are small, the resulting reductions in Arctic BC mass burdens can be substantial, especially in the lower troposphere close to the surface. This in turn means that reducing BC emissions only in the Arctic Council member states can reduce BC deposition in the Arctic by about 30 % compared to the current legislation, which is about 60 % of what could be achieved if emissions were reduced globally. Emission reductions further south affect Arctic BC concentrations at higher altitudes and thus only have small additional effects on BC deposition in the Arctic. The direct radiative forcing scales fairly well with the total amount of BC emission reduction, independent of the location of the emission source, with a maximum direct radiative forcing in the Arctic of about −0.4 W m−2 for a global BC emission reduction. On the other hand, the Arctic effective radiative forcing due to the BC emission reductions, which accounts for aerosol–cloud interactions, is small compared to the direct aerosol radiative forcing. This happens because BC- and OC-containing particles can act as cloud condensation nuclei, which affects cloud reflectivity and lifetime and counteracts the direct radiative forcing of BC. Additionally, the effective radiative forcing is accompanied by very large uncertainties that originate from the strong natural variability of meteorology, cloud cover, and surface albedo in the Arctic. We further used the TM5-FASST model to assess the benefits of the aerosol emission reductions for human health. We found that a full implementation in all Arctic Council member and observer states could reduce the annual global number of premature deaths by 329 000 by the year 2030, which amounts to 9 % of the total global premature deaths due to particulate matter.

We use the ECHAM-HAMMOZ aerosol-climate model to assess the effects of black carbon (BC) mitigation measures on Arctic climate. To this end we constructed several mitigation scenarios that implement all currently existing legislation and then implement further reductions of BC in a successively increasing global area, starting from the eight member states of the Arctic Council, expanding to its active observer states, then to all observer states, and finally to the entire globe. These scenarios also account for the reduction of the co-emitted organic carbon (OC) and sulfate (SU). We find that, even though the additional BC emission reductions in the member states of the Arctic Council are small, the resulting reductions in Arctic BC mass burdens can be substantial, especially in the lower troposphere close to the surface. This in turn means that reducing BC emissions only in the Arctic Council member states can reduce BC deposition in the Arctic by about 30 % compared to the current legislation, which is about 60 % of what could be achieved if emissions were reduced globally. Emission reductions further south affect Arctic BC concentrations at higher altitudes and thus only have small additional effects on BC deposition in the Arctic. The direct radiative forcing scales fairly well with the total amount of BC emission reduction, independent of the location of the emission source, with a maximum direct radiative forcing in the Arctic of about −0.4 W m −2 for a global BC emission reduction. On the other hand, the Arctic effective radiative forcing due to the BC emission reductions, which accounts for aerosol–cloud interactions, is small compared to the direct aerosol radiative forcing. This happens because BC- and OC-containing particles can act as cloud condensation nuclei, which affects cloud reflectivity and lifetime and counteracts the direct radiative forcing of BC. Additionally, the effective radiative forcing is accompanied by very large uncertainties that originate from the strong natural variability of meteorology, cloud cover, and surface albedo in the Arctic. We further used the TM5-FASST model to assess the benefits of the aerosol emission reductions for human health. We found that a full implementation in all Arctic Council member and observer states could reduce the annual global number of premature deaths by 329 000 by the year 2030, which amounts to 9 % of the total global premature deaths due to particulate matter.

We use the aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ to assess the effects of black carbon (BC) mitigation measures on Arctic climate. To this end we constructed several mitigation scenarios that implement all currently existing legislation and then implement further reductions of BC in a successively increasing global area, starting from the eight member states of the Arctic Council, expanding to its active observer states, then to all observer states, and finally to the entire globe. These scenarios also account for the reduction of the co-emitted organic carbon (OC) and sulphate (SU). We find that, even though the additional BC emission reductions in the member states of the Arctic Council are small, the resulting reductions in Arctic BC mass burdens can be substantial, especially in the lower atmosphere close to the surface. This in turn means that reducing BC emissions only in the Arctic Council member states can reduce BC deposition in the Arctic by about 30 % compared to the current legislation, which is about 60 % of what could be achieved if emissions were reduced globally. Emission reductions further south affect Arctic BC concentrations at higher altitudes and thus only have small additional effects on BC deposition in the Arctic. The direct radiative forcing scales fairly well with the total amount of BC emission reduction, independent of the location of the emission source, with a maximum direct radiative forcing in the Arctic of about 0.4 W/m 2 for a global BC emission reduction. On the other hand, the Arctic effective radiative forcing due to the BC emission reductions, which accounts for aerosol-cloud interactions, is small compared to the direct aerosol radiative forcing. This happens because BC and OC containing particles can act as cloud condensation nuclei, which affects cloud reflectivity and lifetime, and counter-acts the direct radiative forcing of BC. Additionally the effective radiative forcing is accompanied by very large uncertainties that origin from the strong natural variability of meteorology, cloud cover, and surface albedo in the Arctic. We further used the model TM5-FASST to assess the benefits of the aerosol emission reductions on human health. We found that a full implementation in all Arctic Council member and observer states could reduce the annual global amount of premature deaths by 339 000 by 2030.

We use the ECHAM-HAMMOZ aerosol-climate model to assess the effects of black carbon (BC) mitigation measures on Arctic climate. To this end we constructed several mitigation scenarios that implement all currently existing legislation and then implement further reductions of BC in a successively increasing global area, starting from the eight member states of the Arctic Council, expanding to its active observer states, then to all observer states, and finally to the entire globe. These scenarios also account for the reduction of the co-emitted organic carbon (OC) and sulfate (SU). We find that, even though the additional BC emission reductions in the member states of the Arctic Council are small, the resulting reductions in Arctic BC mass burdens can be substantial, especially in the lower troposphere close to the surface. This in turn means that reducing BC emissions only in the Arctic Council member states can reduce BC deposition in the Arctic by about 30 % compared to the current legislation, which is about 60 % of what could be achieved if emissions were reduced globally. Emission reductions further south affect Arctic BC concentrations at higher altitudes and thus only have small additional effects on BC deposition in the Arctic. The direct radiative forcing scales fairly well with the total amount of BC emission reduction, independent of the location of the emission source, with a maximum direct radiative forcing in the Arctic of about −0.4 W m−2 for a global BC emission reduction. On the other hand, the Arctic effective radiative forcing due to the BC emission reductions, which accounts for aerosol–cloud interactions, is small compared to the direct aerosol radiative forcing. This happens because BC- and OC-containing particles can act as cloud condensation nuclei, which affects cloud reflectivity and lifetime and counteracts the direct radiative forcing of BC. Additionally, the effective radiative forcing is accompanied by very large uncertainties that originate from the strong natural variability of meteorology, cloud cover, and surface albedo in the Arctic. We further used the TM5-FASST model to assess the benefits of the aerosol emission reductions for human health. We found that a full implementation in all Arctic Council member and observer states could reduce the annual global number of premature deaths by 329 000 by the year 2030, which amounts to 9 % of the total global premature deaths due to particulate matter.

Designing air quality policies that improve public health can benefit from information about air pollution health risks and impacts, which include respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and premature death. Several computer‐based tools help automate air pollution health impact assessments and are being used for a variety of contexts. Expanding information gathered for a May 2014 World Health Organization expert meeting, we survey 12 multinational air pollution health impact assessment tools, categorize them according to key technical and operational characteristics, and identify limitations and challenges. Key characteristics include spatial resolution, pollutants and health effect outcomes evaluated, and method for characterizing population exposure, as well as tool format, accessibility, complexity, and degree of peer review and application in policy contexts. While many of the tools use common data sources for concentration‐response associations, population, and baseline mortality rates, they vary in the exposure information source, format, and degree of technical complexity. We find that there is an important tradeoff between technical refinement and accessibility for a broad range of applications. Analysts should apply tools that provide the appropriate geographic scope, resolution, and maximum degree of technical rigor for the intended assessment, within resources constraints. A systematic intercomparison of the tools' inputs, assumptions, calculations, and results would be helpful to determine the appropriateness of each for different types of assessment. Future work would benefit from accounting for multiple uncertainty sources and integrating ambient air pollution health impact assessment tools with those addressing other related health risks (e.g., smoking, indoor pollution, climate change, vehicle accidents, physical activity).