The paper points out advantages and limitations of contemporary age-structural transition. Age-structural transition may create favorable conditions for fulfillment of millennium development goals, However, it cannot create sustainable demographic development and remove danger of extinction of some nations. The only remedy is family planning program and huge financial resources that will support it for a long period of time.
The work is an attempt to determine basic quantities for introducing a family planning program which will be aiming at a replacement level. In order to do that census year 2002 was taken as an example for calculation. Total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman was considered as necessary level and that means Serbia needs 105.000 newborns each year. In accordance with that level a set of five age specific fertility rates (ASFR) were established in order to find appropriate model of reproductive behavior for Serbia. The sets are established in the following manner: multiplying ASFR by quotient between necessary and real number of newborns, by the data from the last year when fertility was large enough to provide for replacement level (with mortality level from 2002), by linear interpolation between two ASFR models and by Brass fertility polynomial. All five different models of age specific fertility rates suggest that there is no ideal distribution of ASFR. Also parity progression from zero to first, from first to second, and from second to third child is determined. The main reason for below replacement level in Serbia is small parity progression from second to third child. So, rearing the third child should be the most stimulated in every family planning program, as long as every second women have them by the end of her reproductive life span.
The article is an endeavour to comparatively review classic and modern theories and/or theoretical concepts regarding relationship between population development and the overall sustainable development. On the second centennial anniversary of the first essay that initiated numerous discussions regarding this relationship, it cannot be said that the scientific elite is any nearer the consensus. Not only that the hypothesis of Malthus, Neo-Malthusians and Marxist thinkers are being built upon, but completely new ideas regarding this relationship are springing up. Disregarding the ideological differences but placing emphasis on the technological discrepancies prevailing to this day, the article also indicates that these apparently irreconcilable theories can permeate and complement each other. The Malthusian theory could be valid in a peasant society, but the socialists pointed to its flows in the industrial society. The Neo-Malthusians modernized the teachings of Malthus and in the "Limits to Growth" we find a more exact support to the fears of Neo-Malthusians. The theo1y of E. Boserup provides not only a consistent explanation of the relationship between population growth so far and sustainable development but also points to the essence of theoretical differences. On the short run, at a certain technological level (that is, manner of production) everybody is in the right: constant growth in population ultimately results in declining yields (excess population). On the long run, critical mass of population creates a new technological level which, in the beginning, requires higher population density (new "laws" of the population).
Demographic processes and tendencies of the population movement represent basic social determinants which are presented by various demographic indicators. The change in the number of inhabitants in Sajkaska is the result of multi-decade variation in the birth rate, population aging process and mortality movement, which all are conditioned by a series of historical, socio-economical, cultural, educational as well local and family factors. The total number of individuals rose for 34.029 in the period between 1869 and 2002. .
Based on the latest references and the Census of the population in Croatia from 1880 to 2011, the paper presents current and future trends in the number, share and aging of Serbian population in Croatia. Until the 2001 Census, the share of Serbs was slowly decreasing, in spite of evident persecutions, organized migrations and killings during the First and, especially, the Second World War. The breaking point occurred in the last decade of the 20th century when the share of Serbs dropped to one fifth when compared to the maximum, or to one third, when compared to the beginning of the decade. The 2011 Census shows that a small remaining share of Serbs is dominated by ageing population, so the projections indicate that the share of Serbs will have dropped to only 2.4% until 2051.
The paper deals with the basic data on nuptiality in the following six villages in Vojvodina province: Pivnice, Srpski Miletic, Novo Milosevo Obrovac, Perlez and Kljajicevo. Nuptiality rate, average age at marriage, age distance between spouses, marriage homogeneity, and marital distance are depicted. Neither period nor transfersal analysis support Hajnal?s findings.
On the basis of the analyzed demographic data for the last decade of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century, one could conclude that the most significant characteristics of the population of Vojvodina are: slow demographic increase; negative population growth; more and more unfavourable age structure; increase in the decision to remain single; relatively low level of urbanization, a very heterogeneous national composition of the population; acceptance of low reproductive norms in the majority of the population; and a very probable depopulation in the future. The discussed demographic features characteristic for Vojvodina as a whole are also present in most of the smaller territorial-administrative units like districts and muinicipalities. Their population is also characterized by the negative population growth, low birthrate and fertility, high general mortality-rate as well as by a very advanced process of demographic ageing. The analysis about the demographic situation in Vojvodina was primarily based on the data from the 1991 and 2002 censuses, as well as on the data of the vital statistics for that inter-census period.
