Suchergebnisse

In 2020–2021, the world has been gripped by a pandemic that no living person has ever known. The coronavirus pandemic is undoubtedly the greatest challenge the world has faced in over a generation. The imperative of statistical modelling is not only to manage the short-run crisis for the health services, but also to explain the pandemic's course and establish the effectiveness of different policies, both non-pharmaceutical and with vaccines. This difficult task has been undertaken by the epidemiologists and others in the face of measurement data problems, behavioural complications and endogeneity issues. This paper proposes a simple taxonomy of the alternative different models and suggests how they may be used together to overcome limitations. This perspective may have important implications for how policy-makers cope with future waves or strains in the current pandemic, or future pandemics.

The problem of trying to estimate what the effect of the minimum wage will have on employment (or any other outcome) has puzzled economists for over 150 years. Some factions in Germany have recently contemplated supplementing their extensive system of sector and branch minimum wages with a National Minimum Wage (NMW). Perhaps some of the most valuable lessons for Germany can be drawn from the UK which introduced such a NMW as recently as 1999. This article provides an overview of recent evidence from the UK and other countries on the effects of the NMW and lessons to be drawn from instituting such a policy.

This article takes a short personal 'helicopter ride' over the main policy issues in the UK labour market, putting them into the context of the developments which have taken place in applied econometrics. We overview NIESR's role in the study of labour economics in postwar Britain and review some recent advances of importance in the current Institute research agenda.

ABSTRACTThis paper generalizes an earlier paper by Heal (1976) in which the'lemons problem'is analysed in an exchange framework over time. Heal showed that the Akerlof (1970) rule that bad goods (lemons) always drive out good may not always be a valid one. Heal's anti‐lemons result is also shown to be a Balanced Tempta‐Equilibrium (B.T.E.) in the supergame. But it is also shown, paradoxically, that the B.T.E. can itself be dominated by certain strategies, hence there is a direct counterpart to the constituent version of the Lemons Game in its supergame analogue.

AbstractWith one‐fifth of the UK labour force employed in the public sector, public sector pay and its interaction with private sector pay is an important driver of the macroeconomy. Using new data on sector‐level earnings and sector–industry‐level pay settlements, this paper addresses the fundamental question of which sector leads and which follows in terms of earnings determination. We find that in the long run, public sector wages adjust to wages set in the private sector, maintaining a consistent relationship. We further find that there can be significant wage spillovers from the public sector to the private sector in the short run. These tend to be more pronounced for private sector industries that are domestically facing, characterized by low worker bargaining power, or reliant on public sector inputs. This paper's findings have important implications for macroeconomic policy that aims to balance inflationary forces and fiscal funding pressures.