Andreas Dombret, Deutsche Bundesbank, stellt die Ergebnisse einer Umfrage zur Ertragslage und Widerstandsfähigkeit deutscher Kreditinstitute, die von der Deutschen Bundesbank und der Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht durchgeführt wurde, vor: Es zeigt sich, dass die Institute einerseits durch das Niedrigzinsumfeld mit sinkenden Ergebnissen rechnen und nach alternativen Ertragsquellen sowie Kosteneinsparmöglichkeiten suchen. Anderseits ist der Großteil der Institute gegenüber adversen wirtschaftlichen Entwicklungen derzeit widerstandsfähig.
Scholars, politicians and regulators have been racking their brains over this problem since 2007, the year the financial crisis broke out. The question of whether a fi-nancial system can even be stable in the first place has also emerged. And yet if there is one thing all know, it is that there will never be a completely stable, completely crisis-proof financial system in the real world. However, many share the conviction that, if nothing else, a finan-cial system can be made a little less vulnerable, thereby containing the fallout from crises - provided the right solutions are found. The G20 countries have travelled a long and often rocky road in order to make the financial system more stable. Andreas Dombret makes the follow-ing three points: First, he discusses the regulatory princi-ple that was supposed to guide post-crisis reforms: if we assume that the idea of a 100 % stable financial system is utopian, then reforms should be conducted to prevent financial bubbles from being created by misevaluation and excessive leverage while crisis-proofing banks. His second point concerns equilibrium and an assessment of these reforms. As supervisor and regulator, he is naturally partial and convinced that regulation has taken the path of the golden mean: in his assessment, financial stability and risk appetite are being treated equally. And this is why, once Basel III has been finalized, he argues for a regulatory break for now. Yet - and this is his third point - reforms will have the desired effect if, and only if, the rules are also credibly and rigorously implemented and applied.
El pasado mes de septiembre el Vicepresidente del Bundesbank intervino en el Acto de Inauguración del Congreso del Verein für Socialpolitik, sobre "la política de competencias y los procesos de regulación". Más tarde desarrolló en una Conferencia en el 24 Simposio de la European Business School valorando los cinco años desde la quiebra del Banco de Inversión Lehman Brothers sacando enseñanzas de todo el proceso en el ámbito financiero. Este recorrido en torno al ordenamiento económico y financiero constituye motivo de una amplia reflexión para estimar tanto la situación actual como las tendencias planteadas.
Traducción al Castellano realizada por el Prof. Eugenio Recio Figueiras. "Fuente: "Globale Reform und Marktwirtschaftliche Ordung", Bundesbank, Auszüge aus Presseartikeln Nr.38, 7 Septiembre 2011. ; En su discurso pronunciado con motivo de la inauguración del Congreso Anual del "Verein für Socialpolitik" el pasado 6 de Septiembre de 2011 en Frankfurt el Prof. Dr. Andreas Dombret, Miembro del Consejo de Administración del Deutsche Bundesbank recuerda en el actual proceso de la crisis…"que se dé más vigencia a principios de economía de mercado como a la propia y privada responsabilidad". Se trata de una clara exposición sobre los espacios a cuidar en la búsqueda de soluciones eficientes a la crisis económica y financiera.
'There was a world BC (Before Crisis) and there will be a world AD (After Deleveraging) the challenge is to create an effective, efficient yet stable and sustainable financial system for this "new world". This book provides the most comprehensive and thought-provoking basis for action I have seen so far.' (Paul Achleitner, Chair of Supervisory Board Deutsche Bank AG). ' The financial crisis demonstrated conclusively that for central bankers and other policymakers financial stability must always be of paramount concern, for without it the macroeconomy will perform badly and monetary policy will lose its effectiveness. This book underscores the importance of financial stability, laying out the key issues and what must be done to avoid such disasters in the future.' (William C. Dudley, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, US). -- 'Since 2008, financial stability has moved to the center of the policy stage. This volume, combining contributions from leading policy makers and academics, is the essential introduction to the issues. Must reading.' (Barry Eichengreen, George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee Professor of Economics and Political Science, University of California, Berkeley, US). -- 'Financial stability is an overarching goal. In open and democratic societies, ensuring financial stability is a matter of interest not only to central bankers, academics and financial market players, but also to all well-informed citizens. This book provides an excellent basis for a wide-ranging and rewarding debate.' (Thomas J. Jordan, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank). -- 'Financial stability is necessary. To achieve this common target an on-going dialogue is required between industry, policymakers, academia and other relevant stakeholders. This book provides a welcome and refreshing perspective from different standpoints on the issues at stake, and reminds us of the remaining work ahead.' (Axel Weber, Chair of Supervisory Board, UBS).
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AbstractAre overheating housing markets and rising interest rate risks becoming a breeding ground for yet another banking crisis? We assess these risks for the German case. We find that they are indeed building up and may very well form the basis for a new banking crisis – unless prevented through responsible banking decisions, supervisory guidance, and policy adjustments.
In recent years, the German banking sector has overcome major challenges such as the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis. This paper analyzes a recent development as a particular determinant of the future outlook for the German banking sector. Interest rates are at historically low levels and may remain at these levels for a considerable period of time. Such levels pose a specific challenge to banks which are heavily dependent on interest income, as is the case for most German banks. We consider different interest rate scenarios and analyze the extent to which they cause a further narrowing of the interest rate margin. Our results indicate that a projected decline in this margin will result in no more than 20% of German banks earning a cost of capital of 8% by the end of this decade. However, we show that this decline is alleviated by the fact that German banks can apply a special feature of German accounting standards by using hidden and open reserves. We discuss how these income smoothing tools will provide a cushion that supports short‐ and medium‐term adjustments through a buffer effect. (JEL G21, G28)
