Suchergebnisse

Abstract. Australia is at risk from tsunamis and recent work has identified the need for models to assess the vulnerability of exposed coastal areas – a fundamental element of the risk management process. Outputs of vulnerability assessment can be used as a baseline for the generation of tsunami prevention and mitigation measures, including evacuation maps. Having noted that no evacuation maps exist for Manly, Sydney (an area recently subjected to high resolution building vulnerability assessment by Dall'Osso et al., 2009b), we use the results of the analysis by Dall'Osso et al. (2009b) to "draft" tsunami evacuation maps that could be used by the local emergency service organisations. We then interviewed 500 permanent residents of Manly in order to gain a rapid assessment on their views about the potential usefulness of the draft evacuation maps we generated. Results of the survey indicate that residents think the maps are useful and understandable, and include insights that should be considered by local government planners and emergency risk management specialists during the development of official evacuation maps (and plans) in the future.

Abstract. National economies are becoming increasingly dependent on the global telecommunications system – and in particular, its submarine cable infrastructure. We note that a variety of natural hazard processes are capable of damaging and destroying this infrastructure, both in deep water and at the coast. Some places within the global telecommunications system are already known to be bottlenecks or "choke points". Hawaii is just such a choke point and interestingly, Hawaii is also affected by numerous large magnitude natural hazard processes. Any damage to the submarine telecommunications infrastructure routed through Hawaii could result in significant impacts on the electronic flow of data and voice traffic, negatively affecting dependent economies such as Australia. We propose that proper risk assessments be undertaken at all bottlenecks in the global telecommunications system affected by natural hazards (such as tsunami). We use Hawaii as an example of the sort of research that should be undertaken.

Abstract. We apply a new tsunami vulnerability assessment method to two coastal villages in the Gulf of Corinth, Greece using the 7th February 1963 tsunami as a worse case scenario. In Akoli, 46.5% of all buildings are classified highly vulnerable (BV). Approximately, 26.3% of all households are located within buildings with a High BV classification whereas 85% of all businesses are located within buildings with a High BV classification and 13.7% of the population is located within buildings with a High BV classification. In Selianitika, 28.8% of all buildings are classified with a High BV and 11% of all households are located within buildings with a High BV classification. Also 29.3% of all businesses and 33.4% of all services are located within buildings with a High BV classification and 6.7% of the population is located within buildings with a High BV classification. We estimate the minimum costs of a hypothetical tsunami with a wave run-up (H(m)max) of + 5 m. The results are considered significant because they have important implications for coastal risk assessment, resource allocation and disaster management planning.

Abstract. It is acknowledged by academics and development practitioners alike that many common strategies addressing community based disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation duplicate each other. Thus, there is a strong push to integrate the two fields to enhance aid effectiveness and reduce confusion for communities. Examples of community based disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) projects are presented to highlight some of the ways these issues are tackled in the Pacific. Various approaches are employed but all aim to reduce the vulnerability and enhance the resilience of local communities to the impacts of climate change and disasters. By focusing on three case studies, elements of best practice are drawn out to illustrate how DRR and CCA can be integrated for enhanced aid effectiveness, and also look at ways in which these two often overlapping fields can be better coordinated in ongoing and future projects. Projects that address vulnerability holistically, and target the overall needs and capacity of the community are found to be effective in enhancing the resilience of communities. By strategically developing a multi-stakeholder and multi-sector approach, community projects are likely to encapsulate a range of experience and skills that will benefit the community. Furthermore, by incorporating local knowledge, communities are far more likely to be engaged and actively participate in the project. From selected case studies, commonly occurring best practice methods to integrate DRR and CCA are identified and discussed and recommendations on how to overcome the common challenges also presented.

Abstract. The Australian megatsunami hypothesis has been developed over two decades. It charts repeated inundation of the South East Australian coast during the Holocene by bolide impact megatsunamis. The most enigmatic evidence for these proposed events are high elevation cliff-top boulders. There is however an absence of known sources for these megatsunamis, and as such we question whether the researchers may have the correct mechanism but the wrong events. Given the low denudation rates of this passive, intraplate environment, we suggest that boulder emplacement may have been solely the result of the much older Eltanin asteroid tsunami about 2.5 Ma ago.

Abstract. Katla volcano, located beneath the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap in southern Iceland, is capable of producing catastrophic jökulhlaup. The Icelandic Civil Protection (ICP), in conjunction with scientists, local police and emergency managers, developed mitigation strategies for possible jökulhlaup produced during future Katla eruptions. These strategies were tested during a full-scale evacuation exercise in March 2006. A positive public response during a volcanic crisis not only depends upon the public's knowledge of the evacuation plan but also their knowledge and perception of the possible hazards. To improve the effectiveness of residents' compliance with warning and evacuation messages it is important that emergency management officials understand how the public interpret their situation in relation to volcanic hazards and their potential response during a crisis and apply this information to the ongoing development of risk mitigation strategies. We adopted a mixed methods approach in order to gain a broad understanding of residents' knowledge and perception of the Katla volcano in general, jökulhlaup hazards specifically and the regional emergency evacuation plan. This entailed field observations during the major evacuation exercise, interviews with key emergency management officials and questionnaire survey interviews with local residents. Our survey shows that despite living within the hazard zone, many residents do not perceive that their homes could be affected by a jökulhlaup, and many participants who perceive that their homes are safe, stated that they would not evacuate if an evacuation warning was issued. Alarmingly, most participants did not receive an evacuation message during the exercise. However, the majority of participants who took part in the exercise were positive about its implementation. This assessment of resident knowledge and perception of volcanic hazards and the evacuation plan is the first of its kind in this region. Our data can be used as a baseline by the ICP for more detailed studies in Iceland's volcanic regions.

Abstract. Recent tsunami have caused massive loss of life, destruction of coastal infrastructures and disruption to economic activity. To date, tsunami hazard studies have concentrated on determining the frequency and magnitude of events and in the production of simplistic flood maps. In general, such maps appear to have assumed a uniform vulnerability of population, infrastructure and business. In reality however, a complex set of factors interact to produce a pattern of vulnerability that varies spatially and temporally. A new vulnerability assessment approach is described, that incorporates multiple factors (e.g. parameters relating to the natural and built environments and socio-demographics) that contribute to tsunami vulnerability. The new methodology is applied on a coastal segment in Greece and, in particular, in Crete, westof the city of Herakleio. The results are presented within a Geographic Information System (GIS). The application of GIS ensures the approach is novel for tsunami studies, since it permits interrogation of the primary database by several different end-users. For example, the GIS may be used: (1) to determine immediate post-tsunami disaster response needs by the emergency services; (2) to preplan tsunami mitigation measures by disaster planners; (3) as a tool for local planning by the municipal authorities or; (4) as a basis for catastrophe modelling by insurance companies. We show that population density varies markedly with the time of the year and that 30% of buildings within the inundation zone are only single story thus increasing the vulnerability of their occupants. Within the high inundation depth zone, 11% of buildings are identified as in need of reinforcement and this figure rises to 50% within the medium inundation depth zone. 10% of businesses are located within the high inundation depth zone and these may need to consider their level of insurance cover to protect against primary building damage, contents loss and business interruption losses.

Abstract. Australia is vulnerable to the impacts of tsunamis and exposure along the SE coast of New South Wales is especially high. Significantly, this is the same area reported to have been affected by repeated large magnitude tsunamis during the Holocene. Efforts are under way to complete probabilistic risk assessments for the region but local government planners and emergency risk managers need information now about building vulnerability in order to develop appropriate risk management strategies. We use the newly revised PTVA-3 Model (Dall'Osso et al., 2009) to assess the relative vulnerability of buildings to damage from a "worst case tsunami" defined by our latest understanding of regional risk – something never before undertaken in Australia. We present selected results from an investigation of building vulnerability within the local government area of Manly – an iconic coastal area of Sydney. We show that a significant proportion of buildings (in particular, residential structures) are classified as having "High" and "Very High" Relative Vulnerability Index scores. Furthermore, other important buildings (e.g., schools, nursing homes and transport structures) are also vulnerable to damage. Our results have serious implications for immediate emergency risk management, longer-term land-use zoning and development, and building design and construction standards. Based on the work undertaken here, we recommend further detailed assessment of the vulnerability of coastal buildings in at risk areas, development of appropriate risk management strategies and a detailed program of community engagement to increase overall resilience.

Abstract. The Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment (PTVA) Model (Papathoma, 2003) was developed in the absence of robust, well-constructed and validated building fragility models for assessing the vulnerability of buildings to tsunami. It has proven to be a useful tool for providing assessments of building vulnerability. We present an enhanced version (PTVA-3) of the model that takes account of new understanding of the factors that influence building vulnerability and significantly, introduce the use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for weighting the various attributes in order to limit concerns about subjective ranking of attributes in the original model. We successfully test PTVA-3 using building data from Maroubra, Sydney, Australia.

© The Author(s) 2016. Australia regularly experiences disasters triggered by natural hazards and New South Wales (NSW) the most populous State is no exception. To date, no publically available spatial and temporal analyses of disaster declarations triggered by hazards (specifically, bushfires, floods and storms) in NSW have been undertaken and no studies have explored the relationship between disaster occurrence and socio-economic disadvantage. We source, collate and analyse data about bushfire, flood and storm disaster declarations between 2004 and 2014. Floods resulted in the most frequent type of disaster declaration. The greatest number of disaster declarations occurred in 2012-2013. Whilst no significant Spearman's correlation exists between bushfire, flood and storm disaster declarations and the strength of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase, we observe that bushfire disaster declarations were much more common during El Niño, and flood disaster declarations were five times more common during La Niña phases. We identify a spatial cluster or 'hot spot' of disaster declarations in the northeast of the State that is also spatially coincident with 43% of the most socio-economically disadvantaged Local Government Areas in NSW. The results have implications for disaster risk management in the State.

Abstract. Rip currents are strong, narrow offshore flows of water which occur on many of the world's beaches and represent a serious hazard to bathers. In Australia, rip currents account for an average of 21 confirmed human fatalities per year. Based on an analysis of the longest existing data records, rip currents account for more human fatalities in Australia on average each year than bushfires, floods, and cyclones combined. This finding raises important questions regarding the levels of attention placed on the low intensity, but high frequency rip current hazard in relation to high profile and episodic natural hazards.

Abstract. Comprehensive analysis of 15 previously published regional databases incorporating more than 100 sources leads to a newly revised historical tsunami database for the northeastern (NE) region of the South China Sea (SCS) including Taiwan. The validity of each reported historical tsunami event listed in our database is assessed by comparing and contrasting the information and descriptions provided in the other databases. All earlier databases suffer from errors associated with inaccuracies in translation between different languages, calendars and location names. The new database contains 205 records of "events" reported to have occurred between AD 1076 and 2009. We identify and investigate 58 recorded tsunami events in the region. The validity of each event is based on the consistency and accuracy of the reports along with the relative number of individual records for that event. Of the 58 events, 23 are regarded as "valid" (confirmed) events, three are "probable" events and six are "possible". Eighteen events are considered "doubtful" and eight events "invalid". The most destructive tsunami of the 23 valid events occurred in 1867 and affected Keelung, northern Taiwan, killing at least 100 people. Inaccuracies in the historical record aside, this new database highlights the occurrence and geographical extent of several large tsunamis in the NE SCS region and allows an elementary statistical analysis of annual recurrence intervals. Based on historical records from 1951–2009 the probability of a tsunami (from any source) affecting the region in any given year is relatively high (33.4%). However, the likelihood of a tsunami that has a wave height >1 m, and/or causes fatalities and damage to infrastructure occurring in the region in any given year is low (1–2%). This work indicates the need for further research using coastal stratigraphy and inundation modeling to help validate some of the historical accounts of tsunamis as well as adequately evaluate the recurrence intervals of tsunamis along the now heavily developed coastlines of the region.

Abstract. The assessment of the vulnerability of communities prone to landslide related disasters is a topic that is growing in importance. Few studies discuss this issue and limited research has been carried out on the relationship between types of landslide and their potential impact on buildings and infrastructure. We outline a framework to undertake an assessment of the vulnerability of buildings to landslide utilising a similar framework used for assessing the vulnerability of buildings to tsunami damage. The framework is based on the development of an "elements at risk database" that takes into consideration the characteristics and use of the buildings, their importance for the local economy and the characteristics of the inhabitants (population density, age and so forth). The attributes that affect vulnerability are imported and examined within a GIS database which is used to visualise the physical, human and economic vulnerability. The results may have important implications for disaster management and emergency planning, and the database can be used by various end-users and stakeholders such as insurance companies, local authorities and the emergency services. The approach presented here can be integrated in to a wider more detailed "Framework for Landslide Risk and Vulnerability Assessment for Communities". We illustrate the potential of this framework and present preliminary results from Lichtenstein, Baden Württemberg, Germany.

Australia regularly experiences disasters triggered by natural hazards and New South Wales (NSW) the most populous State is no exception. To date, no publically available spatial and temporal analyses of disaster declarations triggered by hazards (specifically, bushfires, floods and storms) in NSW have been undertaken and no studies have explored the relationship between disaster occurrence and socio-economic disadvantage. We source, collate and analyse data about bushfire, flood and storm disaster declarations between 2004 and 2014. Floods resulted in the most frequent type of disaster declaration. The greatest number of disaster declarations occurred in 2012–2013. Whilst no significant Spearman's correlation exists between bushfire, flood and storm disaster declarations and the strength of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase, we observe that bushfire disaster declarations were much more common during El Niño, and flood disaster declarations were five times more common during La Niña phases. We identify a spatial cluster or 'hot spot' of disaster declarations in the northeast of the State that is also spatially coincident with 43% of the most socio-economically disadvantaged Local Government Areas in NSW. The results have implications for disaster risk management in the State.

Abstract. This paper begins a process of addressing a significant gap in knowledge about people's responses to being caught in rip currents. While rip currents are the primary hazard facing recreational ocean swimmers in Australia, debate exists about the best advice to give swimmers caught in rip currents. Such surf rescue advice – on what to do and how to respond when caught in a rip – relies on empirical evidence. However, at present, knowledge about swimmers reactions and responses to rip currents is limited. This gap is a considerable barrier to providing effective advice to beach goers and to understanding how this advice is utilised (or not) when actually caught in the rip current. This paper reports the findings of a pilot study that focussed on garnering a better understanding of swimmers' experiences when caught in rip currents. A large scale questionnaire survey instrument generated data about rip current survivors' demographics, knowledge of beach safety and their reactions and responses when caught in a rip current. A mix of online and paper surveys produced a total of 671 completed surveys. Respondents were predominantly an informed group in terms of rip current knowledge, beach experience and had a high self-rated swimming ability. Preliminary insights from the survey show that most respondents recalled a "swim across the rip/parallel to the beach" message when caught in the rip and most escaped unassisted by acting on this message. However, while nearly a quarter of respondents recalled a message of "not to panic", short answer responses revealed that the onset of panic inhibited some respondents from recalling or enacting any other type of beach safety message when caught in the rip current. Results also showed that despite the research sample being younger, competent and frequent ocean swimmers, they were more likely to swim at unpatrolled beaches and outside of the red and yellow safety flags. Moreover, they were still caught in a rip current and they panicked. The findings of this study have significant implications for a range of demographic groups of differing beach safety knowledge and swimming ability who may be caught in rip currents behave, we know very little about how beach goers may respond to being caught in them.