Suchergebnisse

Estimation of live tree biomass is an important task for both forest carbon accounting and studies of nutrient dynamics in forest ecosystems. In this study, we took advantage of an extensive felled-tree database (with 2885 foliage biomass observations) to compare different models and grouping schemes based on phylogenetic and geographic variation for predicting foliage biomass at the tree scale. We adopted a Bayesian hierarchical statistical framework, first to compare linear models that predict foliage biomass directly to models that separately estimate a foliage ratio as a component of total aboveground biomass, then to compare species specific models to both 'narrow' and 'broad' general biomass models using the best fitted functional form. We evaluated models by simulating new datasets from the posterior predictive distribution, using both summary statistics and visual assessments of model performance. Key findings of our study were: (1) simple linear models provided a better fit to our data than component ratio models, where total biomass and the foliar ratio are estimated separately; (2) species-specific equations provided the best predictive performance, and there was no advantage to narrow species groupings relative to broader groups; and (3) all three model schemes (i.e., species-specific models versus narrow or broad groupings proposed in national-scale biomass equations) tended to over-predict foliage biomass and resulted in predictions with very high uncertainty, particularly for large diameter trees. This analysis represents a fundamental shift in carbon accounting by employing felled-tree data to refine our understanding of uncertainty associated with component biomass estimates, and presents an ideal approach to account for tree-scale allometric model error when estimating forest carbon stocks. However, our results also highlight the need for substantial improvements to both available fitting data and models for foliage biomass before this approach is implemented within the context of greenhouse gas inventories. ; U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research StationUnited States Department of Agriculture (USDA)United States Forest Service; Minnesota Agricultural Experiment Station ; We wish to thank David Walker, Jereme Frank, Aaron Weiskittel, and all who have contributed to the U.S. Forest Service Volume Biomass Project and the Legacy database. In addition we would like to thank John Stanovick, David Bell, Kenneth Elgersma, and three anonymous reviewers for their comments on our manuscript. This research is funded by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station and the Minnesota Agricultural Experiment Station. ; Public domain authored by a U.S. government employee

Abstract
The forest carbon sink of the United States offsets emissions in other sectors. Recently passed US laws include important climate legislation for wildfire reduction, forest restoration, and forest planting. In this study, we examine how wildfire reduction strategies and planting might alter the forest carbon sink. Our results suggest that wildfire reduction strategies reduce carbon sequestration potential in the near term but provide a longer term benefit. Planting initiatives increase carbon sequestration but at levels that do not offset lost sequestration from wildfire reduction strategies. We conclude that recent legislation may increase near-term carbon emissions due to fuel treatments and reduced wildfire frequency and intensity, and expand long-term US carbon sink strength.

The US National Greenhouse Gas Inventory uses the component ratio method (CRM), a volume conversion approach that incorporates models for tree biomass components, for forest carbon assessments. However, the performance of the CRM relative to other methods, as well as influences on its accuracy and precision, must be evaluated. We constructed a data-driven CRM (n-CRM), used it to predict total tree and component biomass for six US tree species, and compared this approach to a reference allometric model. We also assessed the influence of size, crown dynamics, and stem growth on the performance of both methods. Results show that the n-CRM was more accurate for four species, resulting from the inclusion of more predictor variables. Both methods had high uncertainty, but the precision of n-CRM predictions was two to eight times higher for small diameter trees (< 10 cm) across all species. Accuracy and precision of the crown component models (i. e. branches and foliage) was low, though better for pines than for hardwoods. Species-level analysis suggests that poor precision is influenced by crown traits and the size distribution of fitting datasets. Our results highlight needed improvements to the n-CRM, and motivate further development of data that facilitate predictive evaluation of biomass models. ; USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis Program, Northern Region; Minnesota Agricultural Experiment Station; Michigan AgBioResearch through the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture ; Data compilation for the legacy data and the independent validation datasets, as well as B. Clough's time, were funded by the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis Program, Northern Region. Additional funding and support was available from the Minnesota Agricultural Experiment Station. Part of D.W. MacFarlane's time was supported with funds from Michigan AgBioResearch through the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture. ; Public domain authored by a U.S. government employee

Accurate estimation of forest biomass and carbon stocks at regional to national scales is a key requirement in determining terrestrial carbon sources and sinks on United States (US) forest lands. To that end, comprehensive assessment and testing of alternative volume and biomass models were conducted for individual tree models employed in the component ratio method (CRM) currently used in the US' National Greenhouse Gas Inventory. The CRM applies species-specific stem volume equations along with specific gravity conversions and component expansion factors to ensure consistency between predicted stem volumes and weights, and additivity of predicted live tree component weights to match aboveground biomass (AGB). Data from over 76 600 stem volumes and 6600 AGB observations were compiled from individual studies conducted in the past 115 years - what we refer to as legacy data - to perform the assessment. Scenarios formulated to incrementally replace constituent equations in the CRM with models fitted to legacy data were tested using cross-validation methods, and estimates of AGB were scaled using forest inventory data to compare across 33 states in the eastern US. Modifications all indicated that the CRM in its present formulation underestimates AGB in eastern forests, with the range of underestimation ranging from 6.2 to 17 per cent. Cross-validation results indicated the greatest reductions in estimation bias and root-mean squared error could be achieved by scenarios that replaced stem volume, sapling AGB, and component ratio equations in the CRM. A change in the definitions used in apportioning biomass to aboveground components was also shown to increase prediction accuracy. Adopting modifications tested here would increase AGB estimates for the eastern US by 15 per cent, accounting for 1.5 Pg of C currently unaccounted for in live tree aboveground forest C stock assessments. Expansion of the legacy data set currently underway should be useful for further testing, such as whether similar gains in accuracy can be achieved in estimates of regional or national-scale C sequestration rates. ; U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis National Program; U.S. Department of Agriculture National Institute of Food and Agriculture, McIntire-Stennis Cooperative Forestry Program ; The U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis National Program, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Institute of Food and Agriculture, McIntire-Stennis Cooperative Forestry Program. ; Public domain authored by a U.S. government employee

Live woody vegetation is the largest reservoir of biomass carbon, with its restoration considered one of the most effective natural climate solutions. However, terrestrial carbon fluxes remain the largest uncertainty in the global carbon cycle. Here, we develop spatially explicit estimates of carbon stock changes of live woody biomass from 2000 to 2019 using measurements from ground, air, and space. We show that live biomass has removed 4.9 to 5.5 PgC year −1 from the atmosphere, offsetting 4.6 ± 0.1 PgC year −1 of gross emissions from disturbances and adding substantially (0.23 to 0.88 PgC year −1 ) to the global carbon stocks. Gross emissions and removals in the tropics were four times larger than temperate and boreal ecosystems combined. Although live biomass is responsible for more than 80% of gross terrestrial fluxes, soil, dead organic matter, and lateral transport may play important roles in terrestrial carbon sink ; This study was funded by NASA Interdisciplinary Science Program (NNH16ZDA001N-IDS). M.L. and Y. Yang have been supported by the NASA Postdoctoral Program, administered by Universities Space Research Association under contract with NASA.G.-J.N. was supported by the European Union H2020-VERIFY project (776810).