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AbstractThe aim of this paper is to show how Niklas Luhmann's concept of self‐organization can be formalized using fuzzy logic. This approach is based on the shared assumptions of systems theory and fuzzy logic and focuses on natural language expression and the complexity of social processes. It involves modelling the operations of the system in relation to the fuzziness of the environment, that is, the transformation of environmental stimuli in gradual uncertainty to binary codes of communication. Based on these operations, it is possible to formalize their unified pattern, which shows the observation of past operations and the simultaneous observation of the environment. An example is given of the formalization of restaurant self‐organization in the Czech Republic during the Covid‐19 pandemic. The model illustrates and explains how the restaurant system reduces lockdown as an environment, in other words, how the system stabilizes its behaviour in a complex pandemic period.

This paper investigates the application of trend quantifiers of project time-cost analysis as a tool for decision-making support in the project management. Practical project management-related problems are solved under information shortages. It means that methods of statistical analysis cannot be easily used as they are based on the law of large numbers of observations. Numbers are information intensive quantifiers. The least information intensive quantifier is a trend; its values are increasing, constant, decreasing. If a derivative cannot be quantified by a trend, then nothing is known and therefore nothing can be analyzed/predicted. For this reason, the trend model M was created. The model M is based on a degraded set of differential equations or heuristics. A trend analysis of the model M is an evaluation of the relevant discrete set of solutions/scenarios S. A trend reconstruction is an evaluation of the model M if a (sub)set of scenarios S is given. The paper studies linear reconstruction, i.e. the model M is a set of linear differential equations. The trend reconstruction is partially reverse process to trend analysis. A case study has 7 variables (e.g. Project duration, Direct personnel costs, Indirect personal costs etc.) and the reconstructed set of linear differential equations has 7 equations. The set of 243 scenarios is obtained if this reconstructed set of trend linear equations is solved. Any future or past behavior of the model M can be described by a sequence of obtained scenarios.

The paper draws on the results of previous studies recoverability of creditor's claims, where it was research from debtor's point of view and his/her debts on the Czech Republic financial market. The company, which fell into a bankruptcy hearing, has several legislatively supported options by Insolvency act how to deal with this situation and repay creditors claim. Each of the options has been specified as a variant of a decision-making tree. This paper is focused on last option of evaluation (the first was solving evaluation with already known probabilities, and the second with co called water probability with ignorance of previous statistical findings) – The reconciliation. The reconciliation is the concept of the total ignorance represented by metaheuristics helps to incorporate a set of isolated specific information items within a general framework of metaheuristics which generates all missing information items. The result is then focused on the comparison and evaluation of the best ways to repay the debt, also including solution for the future continuation of the company currently in liquidation and quantification of percentage refund of creditors claim. A realistic case study is presented in full details.

This study aims to understand how Covid-19 contagious disease and the EU's policy response may affect macroeconomic performance. Previous studies on this topic have used historical data sets on "rare macroeconomic disasters" such as Great Influenza to assess the impact of the current pandemic on the global economy. The authors examine the main channels of transmission and targeted policy response to mitigate crisis qualitatively. The authors use heuristics and apply qualitative trend-based analysis because the current pandemic is a unique event for which accurate quantitative data are not currently available. Researchers first identify a set of eight variables based on previous academic theories. They then express each variable as a trend: ascending, descending, and constant. The numerical calculations consist of 17 scenarios, supplemented by 24 transitions and a transition graph. Besides, the article proposes a graphical solution to examine the change in GDP that is too small. The results of the study should be understood as a reference point to allow both private and public stakeholders to understand better the relationship between the observed variables and their dynamics. The research provides a comprehensive list of future events to examine further the implications for the economy as a whole and each individual.

This study aims to understand how Covid-19 contagious disease and the EU's policy response may affect macroeconomic performance. Previous studies on this topic have used historical data sets on "rare macroeconomic disasters" such as Great Influenza to assess the impact of the current pandemic on the global economy. The authors examine the main channels of transmission and targeted policy response to mitigate crisis qualitatively. The authors use heuristics and apply qualitative trend-based analysis because the current pandemic is a unique event for which accurate quantitative data are not currently available. Researchers first identify a set of eight variables based on previous academic theories. They then express each variable as a trend: ascending, descending, and constant. The numerical calculations consist of 17 scenarios, supplemented by 24 transitions and a transition graph. Besides, the article proposes a graphical solution to examine the change in GDP that is too small. The results of the study should be understood as a reference point to allow both private and public stakeholders to understand better the relationship between the observed variables and their dynamics. The research provides a comprehensive list of future events to examine further the implications for the economy as a whole and each individual. First published online 26 April 2021