This open access book analyzes and seeks to consolidate the use of robust quantitative tools and qualitative methods for the design and assessment of energy and climate policies. In particular, it examines energy and climate policy performance and associated risks, as well as public acceptance and portfolio analysis in climate policy, and presents methods for evaluating the costs and benefits of flexible policy implementation as well as new framings for business and market actors. In turn, it discusses the development of alternative policy pathways and the identification of optimal switching points, drawing on concrete examples to do so. Lastly, it discusses climate change mitigation policies' implications for the agricultural, food, building, transportation, service and manufacturing sectors. ; Open Access Presents a comprehensive tool set of methods for devising energy and climate policies Focuses on methods that are robust and adaptive enough to mitigate risks Investigates implications of climate change mitigation policies to various sectors
Given the international efforts in tackling climate change as well as the potential dependence on conventional energy imports and the adverse economic environment, countries in the European Union face significant challenges in the critical task of enhancing energy efficiency. Approaches exclusively oriented on detailed quantitative modelling tools like energy system and climate-economy models, however, tend to exclude certain policy instruments and risks, and be too formalised or complex for policymakers to participate, understand and trust. Several decision support frameworks have been proposed for bridging the policy-model gap and helping policymakers confidently select among a number of alternative strategies. This paper employs the expert-driven method of fuzzy cognitive mapping, a semi-quantitative modelling technique in which system dynamics are captured and simulated against different scenarios. To this end, an innovative decision support tool for building and simulating complex fuzzy cognitive maps for assessing policy strategies with the help of experts, ESQAPE, is introduced and presented. An application in Greece shows that long-term energy efficiency measures focusing mainly on behavioural change in the residential sector – as opposed to services in the private and public sectors – are perceived to be more sustainable in a socio-economically optimistic future; this is not the case when challenges across the mitigation and adaptation axes are expected to be higher.
The European Union has set specific targets for reducing energy consumption, shifting the main focus of European energy policytowards a firm commitment to enhancing energy efficiency. In light of the limited progress reported in Greece's energy efficiency action plan, the objective of this paper is to help redesign the near-term national policy framework. In this respect, a risk-oriented optimisation model is developed to support the optimal budget allocation to energy efficiency measures, with a view to achieving the 2020 national targets. The transdisciplinary methodological framework initially builds on the Energy Efficiency Action Plans for Greece and involves stakeholder engagement, multiple-criteria decision making and portfolio analysis. The evaluation of the policy instruments is based on two criteria, namely energy savings and implementation risk, under a set of technical and financial constraints. Finally, the robustness of both the optimal policy portfolios and the individual policies composing these portfolios is assessed. The results indicate that, given the financial and technical constraints, the 2020 target cannot be achieved. By stochastically analysing the impact of external uncertainty, three policies emerge as the most robust, while portfolios achieving savings of more than 1000 kTOE until 2020 are found highly vulnerable to underlying uncertainties.