Inertia in Taylor rules
In: Discussion paper series 6570
In: International macroeconomics
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In: Discussion paper series 6570
In: International macroeconomics
In: Discussion paper series 1929
In: International macroeconomics
The European Central Bank adopted a policy of quantitative easing early in 2015, long after the US and UK, and after implementing a succession of measures to increase liquidity in the Euro zone financial markets, none of which proved sufficient eventually. The paper draws out lessons for the Euro zone from US and UK experience. Numerous event studies have been undertaken to uncover the effects of QE on yields on and prices of financial assets. Estimated effects on long-term government bond yields are then converted into the size of the cut in the policy rate that would normally have been needed to produce them. From these implicit cuts in policy rates, estimates of the effect on GDP and inflation are generated. Euro zone QE appears to have had a much smaller effect on bond yields for the core members states than did QE in the US or UK. Therefore its effects on output and inflation are likely to be proportionately smaller. Its effects on long-term government bond yields in periphery members are greater. QE is compressing interest differential among Euro zone member states. The dangers of QE to which various commentators draw attention, that it creates a danger of inflation in the future, that it creates asset price bubbles, that it allows zombie firms and banks to survive, slowing down the process of adjustment, seem remote. Meanwhile it makes a useful contribution to cutting the costs of debt service and allowing member states more fiscal room for maneouvre.
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In: The Manchester School, Band 81, Heft S2, S. 1-15
ISSN: 1467-9957
This paper reviews key features of the 2007–08 financial crisis, 'Great Recession' and European public debt problem. In the light of these it discusses new avenues of research that have opened up. A large body of opinion supports continued research within the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) paradigm, dealing incrementally with inter alia financial frictions, heterogeneous agents, and more descriptively realistic models of wage and price adjustment than 'Calvo contracts'. However, the crisis has boosted more radical approaches to money and finance, modelling bubbles in asset prices, and taking forward insights from psychological research and experimental and behavioural economics.
In: The Manchester School, Band 79, Heft s2, S. 1-4
ISSN: 1467-9957
In: Economica, Band 74, Heft 296, S. 865-866
ISSN: 1468-0335
In: Journal of common market studies: JCMS, Band 44, Heft 4, S. 731-756
ISSN: 1468-5965
In: Journal of common market studies: JCMS, Band 44, Heft 4, S. 731-756
ISSN: 0021-9886
In: The Manchester School, Band 71, Heft 4, S. 363-380
ISSN: 1467-9957
I review selectively some of the trends in research on the relationships between financial markets and economic growth. Economic theory provides many arguments as to why, given the widespread existence of moral hazard and adverse selection problems in financial transactions, more highly developed financial markets might facilitate faster economic growth. However, it is less clear that summary measures of financial development and structure, widely used in empirical research, are adequate. I review some recent empirical work in this area, and show that apparent effects of financial development on growth may be capturing regional differences, and other factors. There appears to be little empirical support for an effect of financial structure on growth. Much empirical work in this field uses data over short periods of time, of a few decades in length. Looking over longer periods, non‐financial forces of increasing returns in production, increasing returns to agglomeration and falling transport costs appear more important, and the potential role of financial markets rather less. The question of whether finance plays a causal role or merely follows economic development remains an open one.
In: The economic journal: the journal of the Royal Economic Society, Band 112, Heft 480, S. F355-F358
ISSN: 1468-0297
In: Journal of economic dynamics & control, Band 16, Heft 1, S. 165-173
ISSN: 0165-1889
In: Contributions to economics
Financial Markets play an important role in economic development, channeling saving to investments and facilitating growth. In Eastern Europe financial markets were initially much underdeveloped, and lacked the skills and infrastructure they needed to be efficient, having not acquired them in the pre-transition era. The book offers a both theoretical and empirical analysis of financial markets in transitional economies. It investigates financial markets in Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Poland, and their role in the developments in the 1990s.
In: American economic review, Band 96, Heft 4, S. 1361-1366
ISSN: 1944-7981
In: Scottish journal of political economy: the journal of the Scottish Economic Society, Band 50, Heft 1, S. 41-60
ISSN: 1467-9485
Abstract The Stability and Growth Pact, adopted by members of the European Union,imposes tight limits on government deficits. But since the collapse of Communism,Europe has been faced with the problems of economies in transition: and reunifiedGermany—the leading economy of the EU—combines a prosperous western stateand an eastern economy in the process of transition. In a model where unions play akey role in wage bargaining and transition imposes a substantial burden on thenational budget, we analyze the implications of balancing the budget for the path ofunemployment. Where high but temporary costs are financed by raising taxes onemployment to satisfy the Stability and Growth Pact, then the title is a misnomer:relative to a policy of `tax smoothing', the pact increases unemployment and slowsgrowth. In designing fiscal rules for Europe, the benefits of tax smoothing must beweighed in the balance along with the virtues of fiscal discipline.
In: Scottish journal of political economy: the journal of the Scottish Economic Society, Band 50, Heft 1, S. 41-60
ISSN: 0036-9292
The Stability & Growth Pact, adopted by members of the European Union, imposes tight limits on government deficits. But since the collapse of communism, Europe has been faced with the problems of economies in transition: & reunified Germany -- the leading economy of the EU -- combines a prosperous western state & an eastern economy in the process of transition. In a model where unions play a key role in wage bargaining & transition imposes a substantial burden on the national budget, we analyze the implications of balancing the budget for the path of unemployment. Where high but temporary costs are financed by raising taxes on employment to satisfy the Stability & Growth Pact, then the title is a misnomer: relative to a policy of 'tax smoothing,' the pact increases unemployment & slows growth. In designing fiscal rules for Europe, the benefits of tax smoothing must be weighed in the balance along with the virtues of fiscal discipline. 5 Tables, 4 Figures, 1 Appendix, 21 References. Adapted from the source document.