Suchergebnisse

ABSTRACT The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of the Chinese foreign exchange policy on foreign trade with the European Union. After describing the importance of the exchange rate in an open economy and some of the methodologies employed to calculate its equilibrium value, we examine whether the Chinese competitiveness is due to the existence of misalignment (undervaluation) of its exchange rate, or rather, to other sources of competitiveness. For this purpose, we use a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model to estimate a long-run exports equation. The empirical results indicate that over the past few years, Chinese exports have benefited from an "unfair" competitive advantage resulting from the manipulation of its currency value.

ABSTRACT The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of the Chinese foreign exchange policy on foreign trade with the European Union. After describing the importance of the exchange rate in an open economy and some of the methodologies employed to calculate its equilibrium value, we examine whether the Chinese competitiveness is due to the existence of misalignment (undervaluation) of its exchange rate, or rather, to other sources of competitiveness. For this purpose, we use a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model to estimate a long-run exports equation. The empirical results indicate that over the past few years, Chinese exports have benefited from an "unfair" competitive advantage resulting from the manipulation of its currency value.

The end of the 19th century was marked by several events which were extremely important to Portugal. The consequences of these events would later be responsible for the fall of the Monarchy and, thus, for the birth of the Republic. The first Republic was officially proclaimed on the 5th October 1910, and had a relatively short lifetime. This regime was later abolished by a military dictatorship. During most of its duration, the First Republic was marked by economic, financial, political and social instability. However, the Portuguese economic scenario started to change and improved by the end of this regime and, consequently, before the beginning of the Military Dictatorship, which ended up taking advantage of the 'new' and more favourable economic situation of the country. Additionally we find evidence that in the first two civil years of the Military Dictatorship, the real GDP grew sharply and above our prediction, and the public debt as percentage of GDP, had a more significant reduction then predicted.

At the time of joining the European Economic Community (precursor to the European Union) and the Eurozone, Portuguese agents were very optimistic about the level of development that the country would be able to achieve as a result of being a member of those economic areas. In this paper we describe the changes occurred in the Portuguese economy since joining the European Union and later the Eurozone. In addition, we provide estimates of the evolution of the expectations of Portuguese agents with respect to long-term real per capita GDP, based on a simple intertemporal macroeconomic model. Over the period under analysis, there was an impressive progress in standards of living. Before joining the euro, Portuguese agents were optimistic about long-term income. Expectations remained high until the onset of the debt crisis, at which time expectations collapsed. A slow recovery is visible in our estimates for the most recent years.

This paper investigates the effects of the Brexit announcement on the British economy. For this, we use a counterfactual analysis methodology, predicting a set of macroeconomic variables of the British economy in a scenario where the Brexit announcement did not happen and measuring what drifted away from its effective value. To forecast the variables we use the ARIMA method. Our conclusions are that if Brexit had not been announced: i) the exchange rate of the Pound Sterling against the US Dollar would not have had such a sharp depreciation trend; ii) real wage growth would not have been as high after the referendum; iii) the growth rate of the consumer price index would not have had such a strong growth trend and iv) the Gross Domestic Product would have grown at a higher pace and after three years of Brexit announcement it would have been 3% higher.

This paper investigates the information transmission between the most important cryptocurrencies -Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ripple, Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash. We use a VAR modelling approach, upon which the Geweke's feedback measures and generalized impulse response functions are computed. This methodology allows us to fully characterize the direction, intensity and persistence of information flows between cryptocurrencies. At the availabledata granularity, most of information transmission is contemporaneous, that is, it occurs within a day. However, it seems that there are some lagged feedback effects, mainly from other cryptocurrencies to Bitcoin. The generalized impulse-response functions confirm that there is a strong contemporaneous correlation and that there is not much evidence of lagged effects. The exception appears to be related to the overreaction of Bitcoin returns to contemporaneous shocks