Suchergebnisse

Context The processes regulating ungulate populations have been the focus of numerous studies. For the African buffalo (Syncerus caffer Sparrman) population inhabiting the Mara–Serengeti ecosystem, rinderpest was the primary regulatory factor up to the mid-1960s. Following reduction of rinderpest and buffalo population increase, interspecific competition for food, notably with cattle and wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus Burchell), was thought to be the primary regulatory factor in the ecosystem. Aims We analysed buffalo population trends and the relationship between buffalo population growth and rainfall and density dependence in the Mara–Serengeti ecosystem and discuss the findings in the context of the key ecosystem processes governing buffalo population dynamics in African savannas, namely, food limitation, competition, predation, disease and land use changes. Methods We analysed buffalo population dynamics in the Mara–Serengeti ecosystem in relation to rainfall and density dependence feedback between 1984 and 2010. Key results Buffalo population growth was both significantly density-dependent and positively correlated with the dry season rainfall after, but not before, a severe drought in 1993. Buffalo numbers crashed by 48.6% in 1984–85 and by 76.1% in 1993–94 during severe droughts when food availability was lowest and competition with the more numerous cattle and wildebeest was highest. Conclusions Recovery of buffalo numbers to pre-drought levels took 8–9 years after the 1984–85 drought but was much slower, with buffaloes numbering merely 36% of their 1993 population (12 895 animals) 18 years after the 1993–94 drought despite intermittent periods of high rainfall, probably due to demographic and/or reproductive factors, heightened competition with livestock, land use changes in the adjoining pastoral ranches, lion predation and recurrent severe droughts. Implications Our findings demonstrate how food limitation caused by droughts associated with the hemispheric El Niño–Southern Oscillation can cause severe declines in and threaten the persistence of large ungulate populations. The findings also portray how density-dependent food limitation, competition, predation, land use changes and other factors can accentuate the effect of droughts and greatly prolong population recovery.

Context
Reproductive seasonality in ungulates has important fitness consequences but its relationship to resource seasonality is not yet fully understood, especially for ungulates inhabiting equatorial environments.

Aims
We test hypotheses concerning synchronisation of conception or parturition peaks among African ungulates with seasonal peaks in forage quality and quantity, indexed by rainfall.

Methods
We relate monthly apparent fecundity and juvenile recruitment rates to monthly rainfall for six ungulate species inhabiting the Masai Mara National Reserve (Mara) of Kenya, using cross-correlation analysis and distributed lag non-linear models. We compare the phenology and synchrony of breeding among the Mara ungulates with those for other parts of equatorial East Africa, with bimodal rainfall and less seasonal forage variation, and for subtropical southern Africa, with unimodal rainfall distribution and greater seasonal forage variation.

Key results
Births were more synchronised for topi, warthog and zebra than for hartebeest, impala and giraffe in the Mara, and for impala and hartebeest in southern than in eastern Africa. This pattern is likely to reflect regional differences in climate and plant phenology, hider–follower dichotomy and grazing versus browsing. All six species except the browsing giraffe apparently time the conception to occur in one wet season and births to occur just before the onset or during the next wet season, so as to maximise high-quality forage intake during conception and parturition. Fecundity and recruitment rates among the African ungulates peak at intermediate levels of rainfall and are reduced at low or excessive levels of rainfall. Fecundity rate is most strongly positively correlated with rainfall pre-conception, during conception and during early gestation, followed by rainfall at about the time of parturition for all the grazers. For giraffe, fecundity rate is most strongly correlated with rainfall during the gestation period.

Conclusions
Rainfall seasonality strongly influences reproductive seasonality and juvenile recruitment among African ungulates. The interaction of the rainfall influence with life-history traits and other factors leads to wide interspecific and regional variation.

Implications
Global climate change, especially widening annual rainfall variation expected to result from global warming, could reduce the predictability of the timing of peak forage availability and quality based on meteorological cues, the length of time with adequate nutrition or both, and hence reduce reproductive success among tropical ungulates.

Context The timing and synchrony of births are important components of fitness among ungulates living in seasonal environments. Aims We investigated the effects of rainfall variation on interannual variation in the timing, synchrony and prolificity of births for six African ungulate species inhabiting an equatorial savanna with bimodal rainfall. Methods We analyse how seasonally and aseasonally breeding African savanna ungulates maintain reproductive success despite rainfall constraints, and adjust the phenology, synchrony and fecundity of their breeding to track interannual variation in rainfall. We use data on six ungulate species inhabiting the Masai Mara National Reserve (Mara) of Kenya to test five hypotheses concerning the influences of seasonality in resources, gestation length and the hider–follower strategy on the timing, synchrony and prolificity of calving. Key results Births were more synchronised for topi, warthog and zebra than for hartebeest, impala, and giraffe. Births occurred in most months, but tended to peak during the early rains when forage quality peaks for all species. The rainfall component exerting the strongest influence on timing of births varied with species. Gestation length, the hider–follower dichotomy, and hence predation, had apparently weak influences on birth synchrony. In drought years with nutritionally deficient forage, births were delayed, less synchronised and fewer. This portrayed protracted calving seasons, suppression of early conceptions, and delayed onset of births, calf losses, reproductive pauses or failures. However, in rainy years with sufficient forage, births peaked early, or were not delayed, and the synchronicity of calving increased for all species. This suggested early breeding by primiparous females; or higher fertility early in the mating period. The prolificity of calving increased with rainfall for topi and warthog but decreased for the remaining species. Conclusions Marked interannual variability in rainfall, plant phenology and forage sufficiency in tropical savannas impose strong constraints on ungulates, favouring flexible timing of births over strictly seasonal reproduction characteristic of temperate latitudes with predictable seasonal resource cues. Implications Despite high flexibility in their timing of births, widening rainfall variability expected to result from global warming could lower reproductive success of tropical ungulates by lowering their fecundity and survival prospects of their calves if droughts became more frequent and severe.

The escalating illegal wildlife trade (IWT) is one of the most high-profile conservation challenges today. The crisis has attracted over US$350 million in donor and government funding in recent years, primarily directed at increased enforcement. There is growing recognition among practitioners and policy makers of the need to engage rural communities that neighbor or live with wildlife as key partners in tackling IWT. However, a framework to guide such community engagement is lacking. We developed a theory of change (ToC) to guide policy makers, donors, and practitioners in partnering with communities to combat IWT. We identified 4 pathways for community-level actions: strengthen disincentives for illegal behavior, increase incentives for wildlife stewardship, decrease costs of living with wildlife, and support livelihoods that are not related to wildlife. To succeed the pathways, all require strengthening of enabling conditions, including capacity building, and of governance. Our ToC serves to guide actions to tackle IWT and to inform the evaluation of policies. Moreover, it can be used to foster dialogue among IWT stakeholders, from local communities to governments and international donors, to develop a more effective, holistic, and sustainable community-based response to the IWT crisis. ; Griffith Sciences, Environmental Futures Research Institute ; Full Text

From the late Pleistocene to the Holocene and now the so-called Anthropocene, humans have been driving an ongoing series of species declines and extinctions (Dirzo et al. 2014). Large-bodied mammals are typically at a higher risk of extinction than smaller ones (Cardillo et al. 2005). However, in some circumstances, terrestrial megafauna populations have been able to recover some of their lost numbers because of strong conservation and political commitment, as well as human cultural changes (Chapron et al. 2014). Indeed, many would be in considerably worse predicaments in the absence of conservation action (Hoffmann et al. 2015). Nevertheless, most mammalian megafauna face dramatic range contractions and population declines. In fact, 59% of the world's largest carnivores (more than or equal to 15 kilograms, n = 27) and 60% of the world's largest herbivores (more than or equal to 100 kilograms, n = 74) are classified as threatened with extinction on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List (supplemental tables S1 and S2). This situation is particularly dire in sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, home to the greatest diversity of extant megafauna (figure 1). Species at risk of extinction include some of the world's most iconic animals-such as gorillas, rhinos, and big cats (figure 2 top row)-and, unfortunately, they are vanishing just as science is discovering their essential ecological roles (Estes et al. 2011). Here, our objectives are to raise awareness of how these megafauna are imperiled (species in tables S1 and S2) and to stimulate broad interest in developing specific recommendations and concerted action to conserve them.

From the late Pleistocene to the Holocene and now the so-called Anthropocene, humans have been driving an ongoing series of species declines and extinctions (Dirzo et al. 2014). Large-bodied mammals are typically at a higher risk of extinction than smaller ones (Cardillo et al. 2005). However, in some circumstances, terrestrial megafauna populations have been able to recover some of their lost numbers because of strong conservation and political commitment, as well as human cultural changes (Chapron et al. 2014). Indeed, many would be in considerably worse predicaments in the absence of conservation action (Hoffmann et al. 2015). Nevertheless, most mammalian megafauna face dramatic range contractions and population declines. In fact, 59% of the world's largest carnivores (more than or equal to 15 kilograms, n = 27) and 60% of the world's largest herbivores (more than or equal to 100 kilograms, n = 74) are classified as threatened with extinction on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List (supplemental tables S1 and S2). This situation is particularly dire in sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, home to the greatest diversity of extant megafauna (figure 1). Species at risk of extinction include some of the world's most iconic animals—such as gorillas, rhinos, and big cats (figure 2 top row)—and, unfortunately, they are vanishing just as science is discovering their essential ecological roles (Estes et al. 2011). Here, our objectives are to raise awareness of how these megafauna are imperiled (species in tables S1 and S2) and to stimulate broad interest in developing specific recommendations and concerted action to conserve them.