Sharing the reduction effort to limit global warming to 2°C
In: Climate policy, Band 10, Heft 3, S. 247-260
ISSN: 1752-7457
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In: Climate policy, Band 10, Heft 3, S. 247-260
ISSN: 1752-7457
In: Climate policy, Band 6, Heft 5, S. 545-564
ISSN: 1752-7457
In: Climate policy, Band 14, Heft 1
ISSN: 1752-7457
In: Climate policy, Band 14, Heft 1, S. 122-147
ISSN: 1752-7457
In: Climate policy, Band 10, Heft 3, S. 247-260
ISSN: 1469-3062
World Affairs Online
In: Climate policy, Band 10, Heft 6, S. 684-704
ISSN: 1752-7457
In: Climate policy, Band 8, Heft 2, S. 119-134
ISSN: 1752-7457
In: Climate policy, Band 6, Heft 2, S. 181-199
ISSN: 1752-7457
In: Climate policy, Band 6, Heft 2, S. 181-199
ISSN: 1469-3062
In: Climate policy, Band 1, Heft 4, S. 465-480
ISSN: 1752-7457
In: Climate policy, Band 10, Heft 6, S. 684-704
ISSN: 1469-3062
World Affairs Online
In: Climate policy, Band 2, Heft 1, S. 111-117
ISSN: 1752-7457
In: Environmental science & policy, Band 33, S. 308-319
ISSN: 1462-9011
How can dangerous interference with the climate system be avoided? Science can help decision-makers answer this political question. Earlier publications have focused on the probability of keeping global mean temperature change below certain thresholds by stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at particular levels. We compare the results of such "stabilization profiles" with a set of "peaking profiles" that reduce emissions further after stabilization and thus result in a concentration peak. Given the inertia in the climate system, stabilization profiles lead to ongoing warming beyond 2100 until the temperature reaches equilibrium. This warming partly can be prevented for peaking profiles. In this way, these profiles can increase the likelihood of achieving temperature thresholds by 10–20% compared with the likelihood for the associated stabilization profiles. Because the additional mitigation efforts and thus costs for peaking profiles lie mainly beyond 2100, peaking profiles achieving temperature thresholds with the same likelihood as the original stabilization profile, but at considerably lower cost (up to 40%), can be identified. The magnitude of the cost reductions depends on the assumptions on discounting. Peaking profiles and overshoot profiles with a limited overshoot may, in particular, play an important role in making more ambitious climate targets feasible.
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In: Climate policy, Band 6, Heft 2, S. 181-199
ISSN: 1469-3062
World Affairs Online