Suchergebnisse

What would have happened if a relatively looser fisheries policy had been implemented in the European Union (EU)? Using Bayesian methods a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model is estimated to assess the impact of the European Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) on the economic performance of a Galician (north-west of Spain) fleet highly dependant on the EU Atlantic southern stock of hake. Our counterfactual analysis shows that if a less effective CFP had been implemented during the period 1986–2012, fishing opportunities would have increased, leading to an increase in labour hours of 4.87%. However, this increase in fishing activity would have worsened the profitability of the fleet, dropping wages and rental price of capital by 6.79% and 0.88%, respectively. Welfare would also be negatively affected since, in addition to the increase in hours worked, consumption would have reduced by 0.59%. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd ; Versión aceptada ; Producción Científica de la Universidad de Panamericana

Purpose: The paper aims to study the role of local institutions in the establishment of fast-food outlets in urban districts of Peru. In most urban districts, there are no fast-food outlets. The authors, therefore, study the effect of institutional quality on the presence or absence of these outlets and the number of outlets if these are present. Design/methodology/approach: The theoretical framework in which this paper is based on is the theory of agglomeration, which establishes that firms benefit from being close to each other. In particular, the paper builds on a model of market entry and competition in geographically independent local markets. An explicit expression was found for the equilibrium number of outlets (including zero) as a function of exogenous determinants of the demand for fast-food in each market, available infrastructure and institutional quality of the district's government. Principal component analysis was used to construct measures of institutional quality based on administrative and organizational characteristics of district's municipalities. These measures were incorporated as explanatory variables in a zero-inflated Poisson model, which is appropriate to handle count data and to accommodate excess zeros and which also allows the specification of different models for the zero part and the positive part. Findings: Institutional quality mainly affects the presence of fast-food outlets in a district. The quality of urban development management and use of information systems are relevant. An institutional variable particularly relevant in explaining the number of outlets is the presence of an investment programming office in the municipality. The authors confirm the general hypothesis of the paper: institutions have a role in explaining both the presence and number of fast-food outlets in a district. Overall, the results of this paper suggest that institutional quality of a municipal district is related to better infrastructure, which lowers the costs of establishing outlets. Research limitations/implications: Limitations in the availability of data at the regional and urban district level did not allow the authors to analyze other factors that affect entry decisions in the fast-food industry in Peru, such as controls to prevent corruption, legal uncertainty or crime. Another limitation was the lack of data on entry costs for each franchisee in each urban district. This forced the authors to use public infrastructure characteristics of the district as (imperfect) proxies of the entry costs. Practical implications: The instruments of urban development management and information systems can be effective at attracting investment to a district. These tools operate partly through an indirect effect, namely, the improvement of district infrastructure, which is necessary to reduce the costs of establishing companies. There is also synergy between national government's programs to attract investment and the good institutional quality in local governments. On the contrary, poor local institutions can be an obstacle to the successful implementation of those national programs. Social implications: Foreign direct investment has a positive impact on the economic development of a country through knowledge spillovers. Therefore, any administrative reform to make local government practices more efficient can have an indirect impact on development. Originality/value: Principal component analysis is a statistical tool that can be important in building good measures of institutional quality by allowing the combination of different observable characteristics into one component that can be interpreted as an operational restriction. The count model allows the use of the primary, easily observable, dependent variable, namely, the number of outlets. Finally, the two-part model makes it possible to discern the effect of institutional quality on the presence or absence of outlets and the number of outlets if these are present. © 2017, © Emerald Publishing Limited. ; Versión aceptada ; Producción Científica de la Universidad de Panamericana

We calibrate the cost of sovereign defaults using a continuous time model, where government default decisions may trigger a change in the regime of a stochastic TFP process. We calibrate the model to a sample of European countries from 2009 to 2012. By comparing the estimated drift in default relative to that in no-default, we find that TFP falls in the range of 3.70–5.88 %. The model is consistent with observed falls in GDP growth rates and subsequent recoveries and illustrates why fiscal multipliers are small during sovereign debt crises. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. ; Versión aceptada ; Producción Científica de la Universidad de Panamericana

This study employs the synthetic control method (SCM) to estimate the economic effects of signing free trade agreements (FTAs) with the United States. This method allows for a counterfactual –the country's per capita GDP had it not signed a FTA–, which can be compared with the observed per capita GDP. This difference speaks to the causal impact of the FTA. We principally find that FTAs seem to have a heterogeneous impact. In particular, there is evidence that signing a FTA with the U.S. had a positive impact on Chile and Jordan's per capita GDP and that NAFTA harmed Mexico's per capita GDP. In several other cases, no significant economic impact is discernible. Besides, the more a country depends on the U.S. for its trade, the less beneficial signing a FTA with the U.S. is. This article contributes to the debate on the effectiveness of trade as a development strategy. In particular, the SCM opens up the possibility of a "case‐by‐case" analysis, ultimately revealing that a FTA with the U.S.–a country situated at the world's technology frontier–has heterogeneous outcomes and, by itself, does not guarantee economic development (obtained through a higher per capita GDP).

El objetivo de la presente investigación es analizar la vinculación entre el talento de investigadores y emprendedores, mediante un modelo de emparejamiento considerando las fricciones que pudieran existir (matching model with search frictions). La principal contribución se basa en ampliar el conocimiento en la modelación de la innovación exitosa como resultado de un proceso de búsqueda con fricciones. Se muestra evidencia de que los países que son creativos también son productores de conocimiento, y a la vez tienen mejores insumos para la innovación. Para lograr ser más competitivo a nivel país deben considerarse todos los factores (inputs) que impulsan la innovación (outputs). También se encontró que los países de mayor desarrollo han adoptado estrategias de innovación más articuladas a diferencia de los países con menor desarrollo, incluyendo la facilidad para la vinculación entre investigadores y emprendedores. Las conclusiones del presente trabajo pueden ser relevantes en el diseño de estrategias y políticas gubernamentales para promover el desarrollo y el crecimiento a través de la innovación. ; (Linking the Talent of Researchers and Entrepreneurs for Innovation)The objective of this research is to analyze the link between the talent of researches and entrepreneurs using a matching model with the search frictions that could exist. The main contribution is expanding the knowledge on the modeling of successful innovation as a result of a frictions search process. There is also evidence that creative countries are also producers of knowledge and, in turn, have better inputs for innovation. In order to be more competitive at a national level, all the factors (inputs) that promote innovation (outputs) must be considered. Furthermore, it was found that the more developed countries have adopted more articulated innovation strategies, unlike less developed countries, including the ease to create a connection between researchers and entrepreneurs. The conclusions hereof can be relevant for the design of governmental strategies and policies to promote development and growth through innovation.

We calibrate the cost of sovereign defaults using a continuous time model, where government default decisions may trigger a change in the regime of a stochastic TFP process. We calibrate the model to a sample of European countries from 2009 to 2012. By comparing the estimated drift in default relative to that in no-default, we find that TFP falls in the range of 3.70-5.88%. The model is consistent with observed falls in GDP growth rates and subsequent recoveries and illustrates why fiscal multipliers are small during sovereign debt crises

We calibrate the cost of sovereign defaults using a continuous time model, where government default decisions may trigger a change in the regime of a stochastic TFP process. We calibrate the model to a sample of European countries from 2009 to 2012. By comparing the estimated drift in default relative to that in no-default, we find that TFP falls in the range of 3.70-5.88%. The model is consistent with observed falls in GDP growth rates and subsequent recoveries and illustrates why fiscal multipliers are small during sovereign debt crises

What would have happened if a relatively looser fisheries policy had been implemented in the European Union (EU)? Using Bayesian methods a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model is estimated to assess the impact of the European Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) on the economic performance of a Galician (north-west of Spain) fleet highly dependant on the EU Atlantic southern stock of hake. Our counterfactual analysis shows that if a less effective CFP had been implemented during the period 1986–2012, fishing opportunities would have increased, leading to an increase in labour hours of 4.87%. However, this increase in fishing activity would have worsened the profitability of the fleet, dropping wages and rental price of capital by 6.79% and 0.88%, respectively. Welfare would also be negatively affected since, in addition to the increase in hours worked, consumption would have reduced by 0.59%

What would have happened if a relatively looser fisheries policy had been implemented in the European Union (EU)? Using Bayesian methods a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model is estimated to assess the impact of the European Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) on the economic performance of a Galician (north-west of Spain) fleet highly dependant on the EU Atlantic southern stock of hake. Our counterfactual analysis shows that if a less effective CFP had been implemented during the period 1986–2012, fishing opportunities would have increased, leading to an increase in labour hours of 4.87%. However, this increase in fishing activity would have worsened the profitability of the fleet, dropping wages and rental price of capital by 6.79% and 0.88%, respectively. Welfare would also be negatively affected since, in addition to the increase in hours worked, consumption would have reduced by 0.59%