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Forward Discount Bias, Nalebuff's Envelope Puzzle, and the Siegel Paradox in Foreign Exchange
In: Frontiers of theoretical economics, Band 2, Heft 1
ISSN: 1935-1704
Abstract
The bias of forward exchange rates as a predictor of future spot rates is typically explained or decomposed as (1) a risk premium and (2) a convexity term which accounts for the fact that, when there is stochastic inflation, nominal gains from forward currency speculation are higher than real ones and correspondingly losses are smaller. We use Nalebuff's envelope puzzle to explain a third source of bias which involves real profits from foreign exchange speculation. Both the "real profit" bias and stochastic inflation bias arise from convexity of g(s)=1/s and so derive from Jensen's inequality as observed by Siegel (1972).
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Efficient standards of due care: Should courts find more parties negligent under comparative negligence?
In: International review of law and economics, Band 14, Heft 1, S. 21-34
ISSN: 0144-8188
Needed in Empirical Social Science: Numbers
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Affirmative Action and Stereotypes in Higher Education Admissions
In: UC Berkeley Public Law Research Paper No. 2512584
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Working paper
Affirmative Action and Stereotypes in Higher Education Admissions
In: NBER Working Paper No. w20629
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Working paper
Freedom to Trade and the Competitive Process
In: NBER Working Paper No. w16818
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Cartels by Another Name: Should Licensed Occupations Face Antitrust Scrutiny?
In: University of Pennsylvania Law Review, Forthcoming
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Erratum: "The Accident Externality from Driving"
In: Journal of political economy, Band 115, Heft 4, S. 704-705
ISSN: 1537-534X
The Accident Externality from Driving
In: Journal of political economy, Band 114, Heft 5, S. 931-955
ISSN: 1537-534X
The Bundling of Academic Journals
In: American economic review, Band 95, Heft 2, S. 441-446
ISSN: 1944-7981
Contract Renegotiation in Agency Problems
In: NBER Working Paper No. w6086
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Working paper
Holdups, Standard Breach Remedies, and Optimal Investment
In: NBER Working Paper No. w5007
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Working paper