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This paper proposes a theory for regional integration based on structural conditions. By applying power transition theory, we are able to account for and anticipate not only the tendency for pairs of countries to participate in integration, but the likely intensity of such integration as well. We find that integration is most likely when there is an asymmetric distribution of power between countries and when they are jointly satisfied after a power transition has occurred. These results hold even after controlling for level of development and trade flows. We test this theory on all politically relevant dyads between 1950 and 1996 using a novel method to measure the level of regional integration. We illustrate the empirical findings through simulations that track the developments leading to Europe's Economic and Monetary Union (EMU).

AbstractWe focus on the elite decision-making process in China, analyzing the formation of coalitions around particular policy options. We apply a framework that simulates collective decision-making processes (CDMP): the KAPSARC Toolkit for Behavioral Analysis (KTAB). KTAB facilitates the application of a Spatial Model of Politics, an open source model similar to Bueno de Mesquita's (1997) Expected Utility Model and the Senturion model (Abdollahian, et al 2006). KTAB provides a framework to understand logical consequences of subjective data inputs, enabling contrasting scenarios to be analyzed. We examine the interactions of actors' interests that drive China to reform its energy sector policies, in particular the structure of the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). In the case of private companies' entry into energy markets in China, we find that little reform is likely. The inertia of key actors holds back the potential for a significant opening of the energy sector. Despite the erosion of CNPC's political clout, there is little consensus for major reform to China's market position.

This essay analyzes the regional & global implications of different enlargement formulations of the European Union (EU) during the first half of the twenty-first century by (1) assessing the consequences of expanded EU membership with varying enlargement scenarios regarding global power distributions, (2) considering the implications of a drift between the United States & the EU as China reaches parity with the West, & (3) examining the implications of EU enlargement for regional stability in the Middle East as a consequence of Turkey's entry into or rejection by the EU. The findings reaffirm earlier results that China is expected to reach parity with the United States in 2025-2030 & move ahead to be the largest economy in the world. The results for the EU show that, regardless of its enlargement plans, it will fall behind the other giants, becoming the third largest economy. Part of the expected decline in its GDP share can be offset by adding Turkey, & perhaps Russia, to the Union. We also find that Turkey's inclusion into the EU will bring stability to the Middle East. Moreover, we observe that the relationship between Iran & Turkey is one with a high probability of conflict & that it will intensify very quickly over time. With Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons, this dyad is likely to become more conflictual before Iran establishes clear superiority. Turkey's membership in the EU would remove Iran's growing challenge to the volatile Middle East. With Turkey in the EU, parity between Iran & Turkey would disappear & Iran could no longer project hostility against the latter. Tables, Figures, References. Adapted from the source document.

This paper provides a forecast of the likely consequences of ongoing US military activity in Afghanistan, and assesses the implications of a change in the current US policy toward that nation. We use a game theoretic, bounded rationality model, called the Expected Utility model, to analyze the stability of the political and economic systems in Afghanistan, given both the domestic and international context. We undertook two analyses, one in December 2001 and a second in June 2002. Thus far all forecasts appear to be in line with our observations on the current sequence of events. Furthermore, we found that a continued, robust US military presence in Afghanistan is necessary to assure political and economic stability. Without continued, substantial US support for the current regime, it is likely that an Islamic dictatorship, with the potential to support terrorist activities, will replace the current semi-democratic system.

The development of renewable energy is often treated as a purely positive outcome for the world, without consideration of the challenges that come with implementation at scale, which will inevitably follow with the process of a global energy transition. Studies on the political process of the transition to a world of renewables are scarce. This article provides a review on the geopolitical, institutional, and technological aspects of the development of renewable energy sources, including transportation and delivery of energy across national borders. At scale internationally, renewable energy will present many of the same issues as other mature sources of energy. Security, export interdependence, and the availability of source materials will all become increasingly important concerns.

The development of renewable energy is often treated as a purely positive outcome for the world, without consideration of the challenges that come with implementation at scale, which will inevitably follow with the process of a global energy transition. Studies on the political process of the transition to a world of renewables are scarce. This article provides a review on the geopolitical, institutional, and technological aspects of the development of renewable energy sources, including transportation and delivery of energy across national borders. At scale internationally, renewable energy will present many of the same issues as other mature sources of energy. Security, export interdependence, and the availability of source materials will all become increasingly important concerns.

Evaluates the long-term regional & global fallout of the US-led Iraq war from the perspective of power transition theory & stakeholder-based modeling. Demonstrated is how the war can influence future great power relations as well as how sophisticated decision-making methodologies can shed light the long-term ramifications arising from foreign policy decisions. The Middle East is positioned in the global power hierarchy before examining the implications of the Iraq war in light of China's & India's projected economic development & the impact that will have on the world-system. Globally the war has a significant & unanticipated impact, particularly in light of the rift opened between the US & key allies. Regionally, the projection for Middle East stability with Saddam Hussein in power was grim. Findings do not support the goal of global stability as a rationale for the Iraq war, especially in the unilateral manner that the US pursued; however, regional stability was better served by the invasion. 12 Figures, 23 References. J. Zendejas