Suchergebnisse

This paper investigates convergence in left-right ideological positions in The Netherlands using cointegration techniques. Our sample consists of 765 weekly observations on those positions as well as on the corresponding political party preference. The time series data display nonstationary patterns in the sense that their means are not constant over time. Therefore, we rely on recently developed techniques in the analysis of multivariate nonstationary time series to study convergence. One of our results is that the ideological positions, when considered relative to a benchmark, can be described by trend-stationary processes. This means that we cannot reject the presence of convergence. Implications of this result are discussed.

An alternative approach to studying the relationship between the working class & authoritarianism is presented to overcome the difficulties found in the debate between C. P. Middendorp's & J. D. Meloen's "Over het autoritarisme van de arbeidersklasse" ([Working-Class Authoritarianism] Acta Politica, 1989, 24, 83-96) & P. Dekker's & P. Ester's "Klassepositie als determinant van autoritarisme; een reactie op Meloen en Middendorp" ([Class Position as a Determinant of Authoritarianism; A Response to Meloen and Middendorp] Acta Politica, 1989, 24, 97-104). Analysis of statistical data compiled in A. Felling, et al (Religion in Dutch Society 1985. Documentation of a National Survey on Religious and Secular Attitudes in 1985, Amsterdam: Steinmetz Archive, 1987), shows that it is not the working class, but rather small independent businessmen & farmers, who are the most authoritarian segments of the Dutch population. 4 Tables, 21 References. M. Meeks

A time series (t=921) of weekly survey data on vote intentions in the Netherlands for the period 1978-1995 shows that the percentage of undecided voters follows a cyclical pattern over the election calendar. The otherwise substantial percentage of undecided voters decreases sharply in weeks leading up to an election and gradually increases afterwards. This paper models the dynamics of this asymmetric electoral cycle using artificial neural networks, with the purpose of estimating when the undecided voters start making up their minds. We find that they begin to decide which party to vote for nine weeks before a first order national parliamentary election and one to four weeks before a second order election, depending on the type of election (European Parliament, Provincial States, City-councils). The effect of political campaigns and the implications for political analysis are discussed.