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"Dr. Mohamed A. El-Erian, one of the world's most influential economic thinkers and the New York Times and Wall Street Journal bestselling author of When Markets Collide, has written a roadmap to what lies ahead and the decisions we must make now to stave off the next global economic and financial crisis. Our current economic path is coming to an end. The signposts are all around us: sluggish growth, rising inequality, stubbornly high pockets of unemployment, and jittery financial markets, to name a few. Soon we will reach a fork in the road: One path leads to renewed growth, prosperity, and financial stability, the other to recession and market disorder. In The Only Game in Town, El-Erian casts his gaze toward the future of the global economy and markets, outlining the choices we face both individually and collectively in an era of economic uncertainty and financial insecurity. Beginning with their response to the 2008 global crisis, El-Erian explains how and why our central banks became the critical policy actors--and, most important, why they cannot continue is this role alone. They saved the financial system from collapse in 2008 and a multiyear economic depression, but lack the tools to enable a return to high inclusive growth and durable financial stability. The time has come for a policy handoff, from a prolonged period of monetary policy experimentation to a strategy that better targets what ails economies and distorts the financial sector--before we stumble into another crisis. The future, critically, is not predestined. It is up to us to decide where we will go from here as households, investors, companies, and governments. Using a mix of insights from economics, finance, and behavioral science, this book gives us the tools we need to properly understand this turning point, prepare for it, and come out of it stronger. A comprehensive, controversial look at the realities of our global economy and markets, The Only Game in Town is required reading for investors, policymakers, and anyone interested in the future. Advance praise for The Only Game in Town "Mohamed El-Erian has had an extraordinary career as an investment analyst, investor, and market commentator. His 'new normal' concept was prescient, provocative, and has proven out. Agree or disagree, his go-forward thoughts contained in this bracing book are well worth considering."--Lawrence H. Summers, former secretary of the U.S. Treasury "Achieves the nearly impossible: It takes complex financial issues and events and makes them both enlightening and entertaining. It's a must-read for anyone who cares about the global economy and its future."--Jack Welch "May well be the only book you need to read on how the global financial system works, the serious trouble we may be in, and what to do about it. El-Erian's gift for clarity and his use of compelling examples make important economic issues accessible."--Anne-Marie Slaughter, president and CEO, New America "The job of policymakers is mind-bogglingly hard. Who better than Mohamed El-Erian, with his knowledge of markets, his knowledge of policy, and his brilliant mind, to help organize their (and our) thoughts."--Olivier Blanchard, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics "Today's global economy is beset by low growth and rising inequality. By looking at the tools now being used by the world's major central banks, Mohamed El-Erian shows how we can instead promote inclusive economic growth. This is a must-read from one of the most astute financial analysts of our time."--Walter Isaacson, author of Steve Jobs"--

Die globalen Wirtschaftssysteme ändern sich rasant und werden zunehmend von heftigen Krisen geschüttelt. Nationen die bis vor kurzem noch in Wohlstand schwelgten, stehen kurz vor dem finanziellen Kollaps und sehen sich auf einmal vor ganz neue Herausforderungen gestellt. Vielen Börsianern geht es nicht anders. Die Handelsstrategien von gestern funktionieren heute nicht mehr. Investoren müssen die Märkte ganz neu interpretieren und bewerten. Nur wie? Das Buch zeigt mögliche Wege und Szenarien, mit denen sich Investoren auf die künftigen Herausforderungen der Weltwirtschaft optimal vorbereiten. Es gibt Strategien an die Hand, Fehldeutungen zu vermeiden und seine Vermögenswerte zu schützen. Mit durchdachten und einfach nachzuvollziehenden Erläuterungen beleuchtet El-Erian die Ursachen und die Konsequenzen der aktuellen Verfassung der globalen Wirtschafts- und Finanzsysteme. Mohamed A. El-Erian Vorstandsvorsitzender von PIMCO, einer der weltweit größten Investmentgesellschaften. Zuvor war er jahrelang Präsident der Harvard Management Company, welche das 35 Milliarden US-Dollar umfassende Vermögen der Harvard Universität verwaltet. El-Erian ist in den USA einem breiten Publikum bekannt, durch seine zahlreichen Auftritte bei den Wirtschaftnachrichtensendern Bloomberg und CNBC sowie der Berichterstattung zu seiner Person in der New York Times und in der Finanzzeitung The Wall Street Journal.

Each of the last three chairs of the US Federal Reserve faced daunting challenges soon after assuming leadership of the world's most powerful central bank. It will be no different for Janet Yellen, the highly talented and respected incoming chair. How she reacts to the set of known challenges, let alone the unanticipated ones, will impact the well-being of every American and huge swaths of the global economy. No one knows for sure how much time the Fed has before it must deal with the unintended consequences of its experimental policies. It could be months; it could be years. But Yellen can't wait to find out. What is undeniable, even at this early stage, is that the to-do list awaiting Yellen when she enters the Fed is as daunting as those that ended up facing her three predecessors. Adapted from the source document.

Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, has said he probably won't serve another term when his current one expires this coming January. Undoubtedly, Bernanke will be remembered as a bold policy leader who helped avoid a global depression by courageously taking the Fed into uncharted waters using highly experimental -- and highly risky -- policies. At the same time, he leaves his successor with a set of unprecedented and unresolved problems to contend with, from weaning the economy off life support to navigating the consequences of an unusually large balance sheet. There's no question that Bernanke played a critical role in steering the global economy back from the brink in 2008 and 2009. Yet his unusual brand of policy activism did not end there -- and here's where his legacy is more complicated. In five years people might look back and say that he bought just enough time for the US to heal its economy -- or that he's to blame for a new bout of disastrous financial turmoil. Adapted from the source document.

For most of 2012, it was fashionable to characterize the US presidential election as one of the most defining events in recent times. Certainly, if you happened to live in Florida, Ohio, or another battleground state, you were barraged with advertisements announcing that choosing one or the other candidate would result in the end of days. Now it's time for a reelected Pres Barack Obama to govern. First, though, a hard truth: As he thinks about his new presidential term, Pres Obama will soon realize that, even if the spirit is willing, he will be unable to meet many of his election commitments. So rather than surging ahead with promised new initiatives, the incoming Obama administration risks ending up in the same political paralysis that dominated Washington the last few years. He should begin by appointing a "jobs czar." Second, Obama needs to restart quickly the dialogue on medium-term fiscal reform. Finally, Obama needs to address the persistent problems in housing, a sector critical to the well-being of citizens, labor mobility, and stable wealth accumulation. Adapted from the source document.

Not since the countries of Africa tossed out their colonial filters several decades ago has there been this much optimism and excitement about the continent's prospects. While China's economic expansion has slowed, and while Europe and the US try to dig themselves out of recession, Africa has not only weathered an up-and-down global economy -- it's been booming. According to International Monetary Fund data, sub-Saharan Africa has grown at an annual rate of 4.8% over the last five years, a period that includes the trauma of the global financial crisis. That means it has outperformed other developing regions -- like Latin America, for example, at 3.3% -- and it blows out of the water the advanced economies, which expanded just 0.5% per year. Foreign direct investment in sub-Saharan Africa has leapt from $6 billion in 2000 to $34 billion in 2012. Adapted from the source document.

At the outset of the eurozone debt crisis more than three years ago, everyone looked to a group of AAA-rated countries to anchor the European ship and throw life preservers to the struggling peripheral countries. Their intervention was to be surgical, temporary, and reversible. That was, at least, the widely telegraphed intention. Three years later, the reality is different. There are many reasons for this unfortunate state of affairs. To start, the initial phases of the regional crisis were met with denial, bad diagnosis and inadequate responses. A weakening global economy was another complicating factor. But there was another less visible yet much more important factor at play too: the lack of political courage to call a spade a spade. There is no easy solution for the struggling European countries. Yet the longer political leaders shy away from the tough decisions, the greater the chance that there will be a lot more of them. Adapted from the source document.

As the world's power brokers -- well, ministers and central bankers from 188 countries -- gather in October for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), they will again be confronted by evidence that the IMF is still in need of proper reform. This time, the evidence comes not only in the form of continued global economic malaise and financial instability, but the IMF's brutally honest self-evaluation of its role in the insufficient Greek bailout (and, by implication, its involvement in other European countries). On the heels of this disappointing performance, one thing is clear: The IMF is still stuck in the last century. Nearly 70 years ago, the IMF was created for what remains a good and valid reason. It is far from obvious that sufficient steps will be taken to make the IMF more effective. Despite the obvious, urgent need, officials are still unwilling or unable to pursue the comprehensive revamp that is so critical to the global economy's well-being. Adapted from the source document.

A growing number of developing-country officials are increasingly worn ed that 'irresponsible' political behavior in the US risks undermining the well-being of their citizens. Indeed, the 16-day government shutdown this October and the congressional brinkmanship over the debt ceiling that threatened a payments default are just two points in a seemingly endless series of strange developments that risk fueling unnecessary financial and economic instability in the rest of the world. Being on the receiving end of Western-induced economic disruptions is not a new phenomenon for developing countries. Fortunately, and to the surprise of many, emerging economies bounced back from the global financial crisis much better -- and much faster -- than most analysis had predicted. Developing countries are powerless to rewire the system quickly, especially as there is no other economic and financial superpower to replace the US at the core. No wonder China expressed annoyance at US congressional behavior. particularly as it threatened the est mated $1.3 trillion Beijing holds in bonds issued by the US government. Adapted from the source document.

Like an earthquake rocking a house, the 2008 global financial crisis exposed a shaky new foundation underpinning Western economies. Not so long ago, one used to think only of developing countries -- in Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America -- as the places where severe economic dissatisfaction fuels populist movements that sweep aside governments and sometimes even overthrow long-established ruling elites. Those were the old days. The degree of political polarization has been so extreme as to undermine normal governance. Behind this disturbing new political reality in advanced countries is a common cause: the government's inability to deal with the aftermath of a huge wave of excessive debt creation and credit entitlement gone crazy. The warning bells are ringing, and they are ringing loudly. It's high time to put a stop to the cycle where bad politics undermines an already fragile economy. Adapted from the source document.