Suchergebnisse

La question de la réforme du mode de scrutin se pose depuis longtemps au Canada et revient fréquemment à l'ordre du jour, en particulier depuis les dernières élections québécoise (1998) et fédérale (2000). Plusieurs options de réforme ont été proposées sans qu'on en ait mesuré l'impact probable sur la distribution partisane des sièges en chambre et sur ce qui pourrait aussi en découler. Le présent article vise à combler cette lacune par des simulations appliquées aux résultats d'élections récentes. Deux hypothèses de représentation proportionnelle sont considérées et trois différentes méthodes de calcul. L'analyse permet de vérifier si les cas confirment les postulats généralement admis quant au degré de proportionnalité produit par chaque formule, mais aussi l'impact de ce mode de scrutin sur la représentativité au Parlement, la polarisation régionale et les gouvernements majoritaires.

Explores implications of proportional representation for parliamentary representativeness, regional polarization, and majority governments as an option for electoral reform; analyzes simulations based on the Nov. 30, 1998 election in Quebec and Nov. 27, 2000 federal election; Canada. Summary in English.

The question of electoral reform has been asked for a long time & frequently comes back on the agenda, particularly since the last elections in Quebec (1998) & in Canada (2000). Many options of reform have been proposed without measuring the probable impact on the chamber partisan distribution & on the other things it ensues. This article proposes to fill this blank with simulations based on the last elections results. Two hypotheses of proportional representation & three electoral formulas are taken into account. The analysis allows the verification of usually admitted postulates concerning the degree of proportionality of each formula, the impact of that electoral system on parliamentary representativeness, regional polarization, & majority governments. 10 Tables. Adapted from the source document.

Conventional wisdom argues that national economic perceptions generally have an important impact on the vote choice in democracies. Recently, a revisionist view has arisen, contending that this link, regularly observed in election surveys, is mostly spurious. According to the argument, partisanship distorts economic perception, thereby substantially exaggerating the real vote connection. These causality issues have not been much investigated empirically, despite their critical importance. Utilizing primarily American, and secondarily British and Canadian, election panel surveys, we confront directly questions of the time dynamic and independent variable exogeneity. We find, after all, economics clearly matters for the vote. Indeed, once these causality concerns are properly taken into account, the impact of economic perceptions emerges as larger than previously thought. As well, the actual impact of partisanship is clearly reduced.