Suchergebnisse

BACKGROUND: Early recognition of high-risk patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may improve outcomes. Although many predictive scoring systems exist, their complexity may limit utility in COVID-19. We assessed the prognostic performance of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and an age-based modification (NEWS+age) among hospitalized COVID-19 patients enrolled in a prospective, multicenter US Military Health System (MHS) observational cohort study. METHODS: Hospitalized adults with confirmed COVID-19 not requiring invasive mechanical ventilation at admission and with a baseline NEWS were included. We analyzed each scoring system's ability to predict key clinical outcomes, including progression to invasive ventilation or death, stratified by baseline severity (low [0–3], medium [4–6], and high [≥7]). RESULTS: Among 184 included participants, those with low baseline NEWS had significantly shorter hospitalizations (P < .01) and lower maximum illness severity (P < .001). Most (80.2%) of low NEWS vs 15.8% of high NEWS participants required no or at most low-flow oxygen supplementation. Low NEWS (≤3) had a negative predictive value of 97.2% for progression to invasive ventilation or death; a high NEWS (≥7) had high specificity (93.1%) but low positive predictive value (42.1%) for such progression. NEWS+age performed similarly to NEWS at predicting invasive ventilation or death (NEWS+age: area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUROC], 0.69; 95% CI, 0.65–0.73; NEWS: AUROC, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.66–0.75). CONCLUSIONS: NEWS and NEWS+age showed similar test characteristics in an MHS COVID-19 cohort. Notably, low baseline scores had an excellent negative predictive value. Given their easy applicability, these scoring systems may be useful in resource-limited settings to identify COVID-19 patients who are unlikely to progress to critical illness.

With growing concern of persistent or multiple waves of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States, sensitive and specific SARS-CoV-2 antibody assays remain critical for community and hospital-based SARS-CoV-2 surveillance. Here, we describe the development and application of a multiplex microsphere-based immunoassay (MMIA) for COVD-19 antibody studies, utilizing serum samples from non-human primate SARS-CoV-2 infection models, an archived human sera bank and subjects enrolled at five U.S. military hospitals. The MMIA incorporates prefusion stabilized spike glycoprotein trimers of SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV-1, MERS-CoV, and the seasonal human coronaviruses HCoV-HKU1 and HCoV-OC43, into a multiplexing system that enables simultaneous measurement of off-target pre-existing cross-reactive antibodies. We report the sensitivity and specificity performances for this assay strategy at 98% sensitivity and 100% specificity for subject samples collected as early as 10 days after the onset of symptoms. In archival sera collected prior to 2019 and serum samples from subjects PCR negative for SARS-CoV-2, we detected seroprevalence of 72% and 98% for HCoV-HKU1 and HCoV-0C43, respectively. Requiring only 1.25 μL of sera, this approach permitted the simultaneous identification of SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion and polyclonal SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody responses to SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV, further demonstrating the presence of conserved epitopes in the spike glycoprotein of zoonotic betacoronaviruses. Application of this serology assay in observational studies with serum samples collected from subjects before and after SARS-CoV-2 infection will permit an investigation of the influences of HCoV-induced antibodies on COVID-19 clinical outcomes.