Suchergebnisse

Cover -- Half Title -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Dedication -- Table of Contents -- Introduction -- LECTURE 1: On The Mathematical Biology of Arms Races, Wars, and Revolutions -- LECTURE 2: An Adaptive Dynamic Model of Combat -- LECTURE 3: Imperfect Collective Security and Arms Race Dynamics: Why a Little Cooperation Can Make a Big Difference -- LECTURE 4: Revolutions, Epidemics, and Ecosystems: Some Dynamical Analogies -- LECTURE 5: A Theoretical Perspective on The Spread of Drugs -- LECTURE 6: An Introduction to Nonlinear Dynamical Systems -- References -- Index

The Final Volume of the Groundbreaking Trilogy on Agent-Based Modeling In this pioneering synthesis, Joshua Epstein introduces a new theoretical entity: Agent_Zero. This software individual, or ""agent,"" is endowed with distinct emotional/affective, cognitive/deliberative, and social modules. Grounded in contemporary neuroscience, these internal components interact to generate observed, often far-from-rational, individual behavior. When multiple agents of this new type move and interact spatially, they collectively generate an astonishing range of dynamics spanning the fields of social conf

"The Final Volume of the Groundbreaking Trilogy on Agent-Based ModelingIn this pioneering synthesis, Joshua Epstein introduces a new theoretical entity: Agent Zero. This software individual, or "agent," is endowed with distinct emotional/affective, cognitive/deliberative, and social modules. Grounded in contemporary neuroscience, these internal components interact to generate observed, often far-from-rational, individual behavior. When multiple agents of this new type move and interact spatially, they collectively generate an astonishing range of dynamics spanning the fields of social conflict, psychology, public health, law, network science, and economics. Epstein weaves a computational tapestry with threads from Plato, Hume, Darwin, Pavlov, Smith, Tolstoy, Marx, James, and Dostoevsky, among others. This transformative synthesis of social philosophy, cognitive neuroscience, and agent-based modeling will fascinate scholars and students of every stripe. Epstein's computer programs are provided in the book or on its Princeton University Press website, along with movies of his "computational parables." Agent Zero is a signal departure in what it includes (e.g., a new synthesis of neurally grounded internal modules), what it eschews (e.g., standard behavioral imitation), the phenomena it generates (from genocide to financial panic), and the modeling arsenal it offers the scientific community. For generative social science, Agent Zero presents a groundbreaking vision and the tools to realize it"--

Agent-based computational modeling is changing the face of social science. In Generative Social Science, Joshua Epstein argues that this powerful, novel technique permits the social sciences to meet a fundamentally new standard of explanation, in which one "grows" the phenomenon of interest in an artificial society of interacting agents: heterogeneous, boundedly rational actors, represented as mathematical or software objects. After elaborating this notion of generative explanation in a pair of overarching foundational chapters, Epstein illustrates it with examples chosen from such far-flung

Conventional forces absorb the preponderance of America's defense spending. Further, most experts believe the most likely path to nuclear war is through a failure of conventional defense. It is therefore critical that conventional military balances be assessed rigorously--by techniques that go beyond the familiar static comparison of opposing military inventories and explicitly represent warfare's dynamic factors. For decades, a single set of tools has dominated the dynamic analysis of conventional balances: the Lanchester equations, named for their inventor, Frederick William Lanchester. In this study, Joshua M. Epstein makes two separate contributions. He argues that Lanchester's equations fail to capture the basic dynamics of warfare and that they offer a fundamentally implausible picture of combat. He also presents new, alternative equations of his own. These, he contends, do capture warfare's essential dynamics, which Lanchester theory is incapable of representing. Epstein's methods are of immediate practical relevance in assessing the requirements of defense in the specific contingencies for which the United States and its allies must plan and in setting defense priorities accordingly.

Conventional forces absorb the preponderance of America's defense spending. Further, most experts believe the most likely path to nuclear war is through a failure of conventional defense. It is therefore critical that conventional military balances be assessed rigorously--by techniques that go beyond the familiar static comparison of opposing military inventories and explicitly represent warfare's dynamic factors. For decades, a single set of tools has dominated the dynamic analysis of conventional balances: the Lanchester equations, named for their inventor, Frederick William Lanchester. In t