Suchergebnisse

Relative stabilization of economic situation in a large number of countries is now coupled with the growing concerns about the political events. New US sanctions against Russia contribute to this. In economic sphere QE reduction plans, central bank balance sheet optimization which became excessively large, also create concerns. Growing interest of market participants to the high risk transactions, which is caused by lower volatility and low levels of yield, also raise doubts.

Many challenges that have recently emerged in the world economy still exist. Moreover, new problems have appeared. Now we can see at the same time low economic growth in many countries, rising public debts, overheating of stock markets. The fact that alongside with negative interest rates financial resources are not in demand becomes more obvious. Major international banks meet rising problems again. In this environment government interference to support economic players and different markets is getting more pervasive.

Introduction of the free-float regime of exchange rate of the Russian ruble coupled with the fall of oil prices led to sizeable ruble depreciation. All oil-exporters devalued their currencies, however the devaluation of the ruble was the most significant. Against the backdrop of remaining instability in the world economy where a lot of financial indicators reach their pre-crisis highs, it makes the global situation highly unstable and the creation of anti-crisis buffers and stabilizing mechanisms extremely relevant for Russia.

The long-held problems of Russian economy (low economic growth, high inflation, etc.) are now coupled with a new set of issues - sanctions deployed against Russia by the leading Western countries. The new situation reinforces the need for alternative mechanisms which will allow to strengthen economic development in the new environment.

The fall of 2013 marked 5 years since Lehman Brothers went broke — the event, which gave rise to the intense phase of the recent financial crisis. The regulators had to use unprecedented measures to support and stabilize their economies. Even today they are forced to do large-scale and long-term, often super-long (for 30—40 years) money creation; they keep interest rates at minimum (often below inflation) and sometimes announce the level of rates in advance. The growth rates, however, remain low, previous problems are not eliminated and new riks become more tangible. Is durable long-term growth possible in such environment?

According to the latest forecasts, it will take 10 years for the world economy to get back to "decent shape". Some more critical estimates suggest that the whole western world will have a "colossal mess" within the next 5–10 years. Regulators of some major countries significantly and over a short time‑period changed their forecasts for the worse which means that uncertainty in the outlook for the future persists. Indeed, the intensive anti‑crisis measures have reduced the severity of the past problems, however the problems themselves have not disappeared. Moreover, some of them have become more intense — the eurocrisis, excessive debts, global liquidity glut against the backdrop of its deficit in some of market segments. As was the case prior to the crisis, derivatives and high‑risk operations with "junk" bonds grow; budget problems — "fiscal cliff" in the US — and other problems worsen. All of the above forces the regulators to take unprecedented (in their scope and nature) steps. Will they be able to tackle the problems which emerge?

With signs of normalization seemingly in place in the world economy, a number of problems show the possibility of aggravation in the future. The volume of derivatives in American banks grows significantly, high risk instruments are back in place and their use becomes more active, global imbalances increase. All of the above requires thorough approaches when creating mechanisms which can neutralize external shocks for the Russian economy and make it possible to develop in the new post-crisis environment.

Despite the signs of recovery of the world economy the markets feel uncertain. The search for "risk-averse" investments stimulates continuous growth of the price of gold, silver, swiss frank. The second phase of quantitative easing in the US implies massive creation of dollars that reinforces emergence of excess liquidity and associated risks in the world financial system.

The current crisis has shown a number of weak segments in the world and national economies. In response to large-scale challenges the regulators had to significantly revise their approaches (as is the case with the US Fed which authority has been questioned and its activity may be subject to possible reforming). Previous risks remain, however, and new risks appear. Will the present stabilization last long, how dangerous are new threats and what are the ways to reduce them - these questions remain very асute today.

Aggravation of the crisis in the western economies has led to dramatic changes in the world financial system. As a result, the regulatory approaches of major industrial countries have been significantly modified even in the spheres that were not subject to change for many years (as was the case with some segments of monetary policy). At the same time new sources of risks to be reckoned with have emerged. The forecasts of some future developments as well as suggestions about necessary steps to strengthen the Russian economy in conditions of global instability are presented.

Growing involvement of Russian economy in international economic sphere increases the role of external risks. Financial problems which the developed countries are encountered with today result in volatility of Russian stock market, liquidity problems for banks, unstable prices. These factors in total may put longer-term prospects of economic growth in jeopardy. Monetary, foreign exchange and stock market mechanisms become the centerpiece of economic policy approaches which should provide for stable development in the shaky environment.