Suchergebnisse

When a US drone was shot down by Iran, Trump called off a military response just ten minutes before it was due to start, while the reaction to the attacks on Saudi Arabian oil installations on September 14, which the US accused Iran of being behind, has been moderate. There were no real threats of military operations. In October, three thousand US troops were deployed to Saudi Arabia, in part a replacement for troops who were sent home on leave. The talk of a US retreat though is misleading as the US still keeps its bases in the Persian Gulf, and has deployed 14,000 troops since spring - with more on way. The signals from the Trump administration - soft reaction to attacks, withdrawal from Syria, deployment of more troops to the Gulf - have left the Arab Gulf states worried: is the US about to change its geo-strategy in the Persian Gulf and leave the Arab Gulf states to defend themselves, or is the US preparing for a war with Iran? In the years 2014 - 2018, China completed partnership agreements with at least 13 states in the greater Middle East, and has established its first naval base in Djibouti. It is the largest importer of oil from the region, and it has increased economic investment and trade in the three areas of priority outlined in China's Arab Policy Paper from 2016: (1) energy, (2) infrastructure construction, and (3) nuclear energy, satellites and new energy resources. This raise the question whether China is about to replace the US in the Middle East and thus initiate a China-US rivalry in the region? DIIS researcher Lars Erslev Andersen analyses this question in his new DIIS Working Paper taking China's policy towards Iran after the renewed US sanctions following the withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal from 2015 as a litmus test for China-US relations in the Gulf. The paper concludes that there are not many indications that China is trying to challenge US interests in the region, as China in its economic activities has been freeriding on the security provided by the US for years. Rivalry leading to possible confrontations between the two great powers will thus depend on how the US is conducting its Middle East policy, especially in the Persian Gulf, and how China will cope with these changes.

Thirty years ago, a new world order was announced. After the Cold War the world would be a peaceful place and conflicts would be solved multilaterally. In the West it was expected that the only superpower and "leader of the free world", the US, would indeed lead the fulfilment of the new world order. Russia, China, and other power centres understood world order differently. As did transnational jihadists. Thirty years after, the same politicians and scholars in international relations that announced the new world order are now arguing for the end of a liberal world order. The world is facing a future with competition and rivalry between the great powers. The US prioritizes the "America First" policy, China is a rising power and Russia challenges the American position in the world, especially in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Still we are talking about "world order". But what does order mean? What is order more precisely? In this Working Paper, DIIS Senior Researcher Lars Erslev Andersen develops a theoretical approach to the understanding of (world) order. Based on the philosophies of Immanuel Kant and Arthur Schopenhauer, and including Albert Einstein's theories, this approach proposes a definition of the will to life as the desire for order. This is put into perspective using Friedrich Nietzsche's determination of two fundamental desires based on his studies of Greek tragedy; the Apollonian and the Dionysian. The approach discusses and proposes several theories about world order to be rethought based on the definition of world order as will and representation and the will to life as the desire for order. Inspired by the paradigm shifts that have changed the interpretation of Nature in theoretical physics since Einstein's theory on gravitation and the development of quantum mechanics it argues that time has come for a theoretical paradigm shift in the study and understanding of international relations.

Intet resumé

Following the July 2005 London terrorist attacks the focus of anti-terrorism efforts has moved towards radicalisation within European societies and away from the conflicts in the Middle East and South Asia. This report argues that this shift in focus is based on a misconstrual of al-Qaida as it mistakes effect for cause. Based on an examination of the communication strategy of al-Qaida and the political rhetoric of Salafism the need for an analysis of militant Salafism in its political and societal context is demonstrated. The radicalisation theory is criticised and it is argued that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as the increased focus on efforts to counter radicalisation within European societies more or less have failed because al-Qaida has been able to exploit this strategy and reorganise itself around an operational centre in Pakistan. The report concludes that only politically viable solutions in South Asia and the Middle East can effectively suppress al-Qaida and militant Salafism.

In this new report DIIS researchers Yang Jiang and Lars Erslev Andersen explore the changing strategic roles of the USA and China in the Persian Gulf region, in particular in view of US (mis)handling of local conflicts and China's expanding economic interest there, in order to identify the implications for Danish Middle East Policy. While the US has provided the security umbrella in the region, its handling of ethnic conflicts and civil wars has irritated members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Political developments, including 9/11 and the Arab Spring, have forced the member states of the GCC to take action to avoid the spread of democratic movements and reforms, while seeking to handle their own affairs without interference from the US, EU and UN. Problems in GCC-US relations also make GCC states look Eastwards for new partners, providing a power vacuum and opportunity for China to edge in. China has expanding economic involvement in the Gulf and has overtaken the US as the biggest importer of oil from the GCC. With expanding trade, investment and contract work in the Gulf, China seeks to protect its assets and citizens there. It can no longer follow the old diplomatic strategy of keeping a low profile and keeping business and politics separate. China has learned from crises in Libya and Sudan and changed its policy from non-intervention to active mediation, supporting UN sanctions, contributing to UN peacekeeping missions and securing peacekeeping to protect its oil interests. Doubts remain both within the GCC and in Chinese policymaking circles as to what extent China should be strategically involved in the Gulf, and China does not seek to challenge or replace the US as the security provider of the Middle East. However, there is no doubt that active pragmatism has become China's guiding diplomatic strategy and that we will see more political and strategic activities from China in the region. [.]

Introduction: Complexity, Resilience and the 'Local Turn' in Counterinsurgency / Moe, Louise Wiuff (et al.) 1-27. - A Struggle for Control and Influence': Western Counterinsurgency and the Problematic of Autonomy / Kienscherf, Markus 29-50. - Ethnographic Intelligence: The Human Terrain System and Its Enduring Legacy / González, Roberto J. 51-73. - Grey's Anatomy Goes South: Biometrics, Racism, and Counterinsurgency in the Colonial Present / Bell, Colleen 75-95. - The Peacebuilding-Counterinsurgency Nexus in the Occupied Palestinian Territory / Turner, Mandy 97-118. - Counterinsurgent Warfare and the Decentering of Sovereignty in Somalia / Moe, Louise Wiuff 119-140. - The 'New Path' to Peace: Cultivating Masculinities in Southern Thai Counterinsurgency / Streicher, Ruth 141-162. - Countering Criminal Insurgencies: Fighting Gangs and Building Resilient Communities in Post-War Guatemala / Hochmüller, Markus (et al.) 163-186. - The Locals Strike Back: The Anbar Awakening in Iraq and the Rise of Islamic State / Andersen, Lars Erslev 187-205. - Western Strategic Thought and the Devaluation of Counterinsurgency / Jones, David Martin 207-223