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This scientific opinion by the Group of Chief Scientific Advisors examines how the European Commission can contribute to the preparation for, acceleration, and facilitation of the clean energy transition in the EU. The European Green Deal aims to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in Europe by 2050, a necessary step to limit global warming. Achieving this target is possible, but requires urgent and decisive action. The role of energy systems is key in driving progress across virtually all sectors in the transition towards a clean planet for all. Energy policy should therefore be clearly aimed towards achieving climate neutrality and sustainability. EU energy systems should be based on decarbonised energy sources. The Group recommends to maintain future energy systems flexible in terms of pathways, different technologies, and scales of implementation, and to support European research and innovation as a world leader in new technologies and smart systems. Policy makers should recognise the roles of all actors and stakeholders (from the public and private sectors to individuals and households, at local, national, European and international levels) in creating an inclusive and participatory environment that supports low-carbon energy choices. Finally, the Group recommends supporting a coordinated combination of policies, measures and instruments, including carbon pricing as a driving force, to shape an effective, consistent and just regulatory system.

The purpose of this publication is to present the "EU Reference Scenario 2020" (named thereafter "Reference Scenario"), which updates the previous version published in 2016. The Reference Scenario projects the impact of macro-economic, fuel price and technology trends and policies on the evolution of the EU energy system, on transport, and on their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The projections concern the 27 EU Member States individually and altogether. The Reference Scenario also includes GHG emission trends not related to energy. This publication presents and discusses the projection results and analyses various interactions among energy system sectors and impact of different policies. In essence, the Reference Scenario is an informed, internally consistent, and policy relevant projection on the future developments of the EU energy system, transport system and greenhouse gas GHG emissions that acts as a benchmark for new policy initiatives. It reflects policies and market trends used by policymakers as baseline for the design of policies that can bridge the gap between where EU energy and climate policy stands today and where it aims to be in the medium- and long-term, notably in 2030 and 2050.

This scientific opinion by the Group of Chief Scientific Advisors examines how the European Commission can contribute to the preparation for, acceleration, and facilitation of the clean energy transition in the EU. The European Green Deal aims to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in Europe by 2050, a necessary step to limit global warming. Achieving this target is possible, but requires urgent and decisive action. The role of energy systems is key in driving progress across virtually all sectors in the transition towards a clean planet for all. Energy policy should therefore be clearly aimed towards achieving climate neutrality and sustainability. EU energy systems should be based on decarbonised energy sources. The Group recommends to maintain future energy systems flexible in terms of pathways, different technologies, and scales of implementation, and to support European research and innovation as a world leader in new technologies and smart systems. Policy makers should recognise the roles of all actors and stakeholders (from the public and private sectors to individuals and households, at local, national, European and international levels) in creating an inclusive and participatory environment that supports low-carbon energy choices. Finally, the Group recommends supporting a coordinated combination of policies, measures and instruments, including carbon pricing as a driving force, to shape an effective, consistent and just regulatory system.

The purpose of this publication is to present the "EU Reference Scenario 2020" (named thereafter "Reference Scenario"), which updates the previous version published in 2016. The Reference Scenario projects the impact of macro-economic, fuel price and technology trends and policies on the evolution of the EU energy system, on transport, and on their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The projections concern the 27 EU Member States individually and altogether. The Reference Scenario also includes GHG emission trends not related to energy. This publication presents and discusses the projection results and analyses various interactions among energy system sectors and impact of different policies. In essence, the Reference Scenario is an informed, internally consistent, and policy relevant projection on the future developments of the EU energy system, transport system and greenhouse gas GHG emissions that acts as a benchmark for new policy initiatives. It reflects policies and market trends used by policymakers as baseline for the design of policies that can bridge the gap between where EU energy and climate policy stands today and where it aims to be in the medium- and long-term, notably in 2030 and 2050.

Document prepared by the European Union High-Level Expert Group on Artificial Intelligence (AI HLEG).