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This Selected Issues paper examines the external imbalance situation in Turkey. Turkey's current account deficit is expected to remain elevated at about 5.5 to 6 percent of GDP through 2019. Reducing the deficit to a more sustainable level about 2.5 to 3 percent of GDP should be a key policy priority. Applying the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model, the paper quantifies the impact of four different approaches in reducing the current account deficit. The analysis shows that policies that directly increase private or public savings can reduce the external imbalance without reducing priv

Cover -- CONTENTS -- TEN YEARS ON FROM EU ACCESSION -- A. Introduction -- B. EU Membership Catalyzed a Remarkable Turnaround -- C. Deeper Integration into the World Economy Spurred Economic Convergence -- D. Important Challenges Remain -- References -- FIGURE -- 1. Breakdown of Per Capita Income Convergence -- APPENDIX -- Per-Capita Income Breakdown -- EVOLUTION OF DRIVERS OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE IN SLOVAKIA -- A. Introduction -- B. Macroeconomic Dynamics and Inward Spillovers -- C. Trade Developments and the Sustainability of External Surpluses -- References -- FIGURES

Cover -- CONTENTS -- POTENTIAL OUTPUT AND IMMIGRATION IN NORWAY -- A. Introduction -- B. Immigration and Economic Cycles -- C. Estimating Potential Output Using Standard Approaches -- D. "Immigration Neutral" Potential Output -- E. Conclusion -- BOXES -- 1. Experience of Immigration Patterns from Spain and United Kingdom -- 2. Technical Details of Immigration Neutral Estimation -- FIGURES -- 1. Labor Market Indicators: Cross-Country Comparison -- 2. Net Migration to Norway from Selected Countries -- REFERENCES -- PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN NORWAY -- A. Introduction

Growth is gaining momentum, led by strong external demand while domestic demand is also picking up. The central bank's foreign exchange intervention policy has helped stem deflationary pressures but inflation is still well below target. Following substantial fiscal adjustment over the past three years, an easing of the fiscal stance is underway and the new government's medium-term fiscal plans have not yet been fully elaborated. The financial system is sound and resilient to shocks, and improvements in the regulatory and supervisory architecture are ongoing. The challenge for the authorities i

This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Croatia remains stuck in an unusually drawn out recession. In 2013, real GDP contracted for the 5th consecutive year, and stands now at less than 90 percent of the end-2008 level. Unemployment has risen to 17 percent. Domestic demand remains depressed as corporations and households focus on reducing excessive debts accumulated in the 2000s. Exports and foreign direct investment are also feeble. The outlook is for an additional contraction in 2014 of almost 1 percent. Real domestic demand would remain feeble, reflecting both weak private sector

KEY ISSUESPrudent fiscal policies with near-balanced budgets over the cycle have reduced gross public debt to about 10 percent of GDP. These policies have also led to a pro-cyclical fiscal stance, with unsustainable increases in spending during the boom and a sharp contraction during the crisis. However, the new budget framework with a target of a structural fiscal balance or surplus should prevent excess spending in upturns and allow full operation of automatic stabilizer in downturns.Legislation in parliament would establish the Eesti Pank (the central bank) as the macroprudential authority

KEY ISSUESContext: Latvia's economy continues to recover strongly as it joins the euro area. The output gap is now largely closed, and labor market conditions are tightening despite still high unemployment. The current account is close to balance, while inflation has fallen to near zero due mainly to declining energy prices. Bank balance sheets are improving but credit continues to contract. The growth of non-resident deposits (NRDs) in the banking system decelerated in 2013.Challenges: Latvia's broadly favorable medium-term outlook faces several external risks. Prolonged weakness in euro area

KEY ISSUESContext. Growth continues to strengthen, although the recovery is not yetbroad-based. External and fiscal vulnerabilities have risen: private non-debt creating capital flows have slowed, and could leave the reserve path increasingly driven by an accumulation of external public debt; central government debtâ??although still moderate at a projected 36 percent of GDPâ??has increased by about 15 percentage points since the beginning of the global financial crisis, in the context of growing broader public sector operations.Fiscal Policy. The newly re-established medium-term strategy is we

KEY ISSUES:With growth projected at just over 1 percent in 2014, recovery from the stagnation of 2012?13 is proving slow, as in much of Europe. Healthy private balance sheets and integration with Germany dampened the impact of the crisis. However, despite its resilience the economy has been losing competitiveness due to higher labor cost and lower productivity growths than peer countries. The government has taken measures to close the wage gap, but the economy also needs to become more productive and adaptable through deeper product and labor market reforms. Low rates of employment further pen

This paper discusses Iceland''s Fourth Post-Program Monitoring Discussions. Iceland''s economy has grown strongly on the back of booming tourism. Real GDP grew 3.3 percent in 2013, despite a drop in investment spending. Net exports were the primary driver. High frequency indicators suggest strong net exports—including steady growth in off-season tourism—have continued in Q1 2014, along with rising private consumption. Inflation has fallen below the Central Bank of Iceland''s 2.5 percent target but long-term inflation expectations remain noticeably above this level. The government''s medium-ter

This paper focuses on Moldovaâ??s 2014 Article IV Consultation and First Post-Program Monitoring Discussions. Moldova largely achieved the main objectives of the economic program supported by a combined Extended Credit Facility/Extended Fund Facility (ECF/EFF). The countryâ??s economic performance was among the strongest in the region during 2010â??2013. This was made possible by adequate macroeconomic stabilization measures and ambitious structural reforms implemented in the wake of the crisis under the IMF-supported program. The Moldovan economy recovered strongly from the drought-related co

Cover -- CONTENTS -- OVERVIEW -- JUDICIAL REFORMS FOR GROWTH -- A. The Macro-Judicial Linkages-A Regional Perspective -- B. A Deeper Look at Court Efficiency and Employment -- C. Judicial Reforms for Growth -- REFERENCES -- BOX -- 1. The Strasbourg Program of the Turin Court -- FIGURES -- 1. Average Length of Civil Proceedings -- 2. Backlog of Pending Civil Cases -- 3. Regional Judicial Efficiency and Macro Outcomes -- 4. Average Duration of Ordinary Labor Court Proceedings -- TABLES -- 1. Provincial Growth and Judicial Efficiency -- 2. Summary Statistics -- 3. Probit Models for Probability of Employment -- FUTURE CHALLENGES FACING ITALY'S FINANCIAL SECTOR -- A. The Evolution of the Bank Business Model -- B. Recommendations -- C. Developing Further the Capital Markets -- D. Role of Institutional Investors -- E. Recommendations -- F. Conclusion -- REFERENCES -- FIGURE -- 1. Structural Issues and Profitability in Italian Banks -- IMPROVING PUBLIC SPENDING ALLOCATION AND PERFORMANCE IN ITALY: AN EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS -- A. Background -- B. Comparison with Euro Area Spending and Efficiency Indicators -- C. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations -- REFERENCES -- FIGURE -- 1. Italy and Euro Area: Increase in Spending by Level of Government, 2000-12 -- ANNEXES -- 1. Selected European Countries: DEA Efficiency Scores -- 2. Italian Regions: DEA Efficiency Scores -- THE USE OF PERFORMANCE INFORMATION IN RESOURCE ALLOCATION -- A. Introduction -- B. International Practices and Lessons -- C. Strengthening the Use of Performance Information in the Budget Process -- D. Performance Information in Italy -- REFERENCES -- FIGURE -- 1. PI Usage at Different Allocation Levels -- ANNEXES -- 1. Sample Performance Indicators for the Education Sector -- 2. Determinants of Health Outcomes -- 3. The "Chain Value", From Resources to Results in a Tertiary Education Program.

This Selected Issues paper reviews business investment patterns in France during the crisis. The main motivation is to explore whether investment has recently evolved in line with established determinants or displayed somewhat unconventional dynamics. This paper addresses three distinct questions. First, has recent investment behavior essentially been consistent with past trends or is there any discernible structural break as a result of the crisis. Second, what drove the contraction in investment during the crisis. Third, what is the investment outlook and can a swift and strong rebound going

This paper discusses Ukraineâ??s 2013 Article IV Consultation and First Post-Program Monitoring. The Ukrainian economy has been in recession since mid-2012, and the outlook remains challenging. In Januaryâ??September 2013, GDP contracted by 1Â1D percent year-over-year, reflecting lower demand for Ukrainian exports and falling investments. Consumer prices stayed flat, held down by decreasing food prices and tight monetary policy. The fiscal stance loosened in 2012â??2013, contributing to the buildup of vulnerabilities. Ukraine remains current on all its payments to the IMF, and the authorities h