Suchergebnisse

A rapidly growing share of global agricultural areas is devoted to the production of biomass for non-food purposes. The derived products include, for example, biofuels, textiles, detergents or cosmetics. Given the far-reaching global implications of an expanding non-food bioeconomy, an assessment of the bioeconomy's resource use from a footprint perspective is urgently needed. We determine the global cropland footprint of non-food products with a hybrid land flow accounting model combining data from the Food and Agriculture Organization and the multi-regional input-output model EXIOBASE. The globally interlinked model covers all cropland areas used for the production of crop- and animal-based non-food commodities for the years from 1995 to 2010. We analyse global patterns of raw material producers, processers and consumers of bio-based non-food products, with a particular focus on the European Union. Results illustrate that the EU is a major processer and the number one consumer region of non-food cropland, despite being only the fifth largest producing region. Two thirds of the cropland required to satisfy EU non-food consumption are located in other world regions, giving rise to a significant dependency on imported products and to potential impacts on distant ecosystems. With almost 29% in 2010, oilseed production, used to produce, for example, biofuels, detergents and polymers, represents the dominant share in the EU's non-food cropland footprint. There is also a significant contribution of more traditional non-food biomass uses such as fibre crops (for textiles) and animal hides and skins (for leather products). Our study emphasises the importance of comprehensively assessing the implications of the non-food bioeconomy expansion as envisaged in various policy strategies, such as the Bioeconomy Strategy of the European Commission.

Der vorliegende Band ist ein erster umfassender Bericht über die Bildungsgesamtrechnung des IAB, ihre grundlegenden Fragestellungen, Verfahren, Datenquellen und Ergebnisse. Die Bildungsgesamtrechnung (BGR) wurde konzipiert, um einen Gesamtüberblick über die quantitativen Zusammenhänge zwischen dem Bildungs- und dem Beschäftigungssystem zu ermöglichen, wie er bislang aus isolierten Teilbetrachtungen nicht hinreichend möglich war. Insbesondere die Kombination von Bestands- und Bewegungsdaten in Gestalt des Kohortenkonzepts und die zugleich flächendeckende wie differenzierte Betrachtung aller relevanten Teilgruppen der Bevölkerung ermöglichen Einsichten in die Feinstrukturen im Bildungs- und Beschäftigungssystem und die dort ablaufenden Prozesse. Sie sind sowohl zum Verständnis der Vergangenheit als auch der angesichts des demographischen Wandels und der zu erwartenden tiefgreifenden strukturellen Veränderungen von Gesellschaft und Wirtschaft zu erwartenden künftigen Entwicklungen notwendig. Gliederung: I. Bestände und Bewegungen im Bildungs- und Beschäftigungssystem. - II. Konstruktionsprinzipien der Bildungsgesamtrechnung. - III. Datenquellen und Anpassungsverfahren in der Bildungsgesamtrechnung. - IV. Ergebnisse der Bildungsgesamtrechnung. - V. Einige weiterführende Analysen der BGR-Ergebnisse. - VI. Projektionen (u. a. Demographische Projektion der Entwicklung im Bildungs- und Beschäftigungssystem bis zum Jahre 2020). - VII. Ausblick (PHF/übern.)

Abstract
The rapid growth of China's demand for grains is expected to continue in the coming decades, largely as a result of the increasing feed demand to produce protein-rich food. This leads to a great concern on future supply potentials of Chinese agriculture under climate change and the extent of China's dependence on world food markets. While the existing literature in both agronomy and climate economics indicates a dominance of the adverse impacts of climate change on rice, wheat, and maize yields, there is a lack of study to assess changes in multi-cropping opportunities induced by climate change. Multi-cropping benefits crop production by harvesting more than once per year from a given plot. To address this important gap, we established a procedure within the agro-ecological zones (AEZ) modeling framework to assess future spatial shifts of multi-cropping conditions. The assessment was based on an ensemble of five general circulation models under four representative concentration pathway scenarios in the phase five of coupled model inter-comparison project and accounted for the water scarcity constraints. The results show significant northward extensions of single-, double-, and triple-cropping zones in the future which would provide good opportunities for crop-rotation-based adaptation. The increasing multi-cropping opportunities would be able to boost the annual grain production potential by an average scale of 89(±49) Mt at the current irrigation efficiency and 143(±46) Mt at the modernized irrigation efficiency with improvement between the baseline (1981–2010) and the mid-21st century (2041–2070).

A rapidly growing share of global agricultural areas is devoted to the production of biomass for non-food purposes. The expanding non-food bioeconomy can have far-reaching social and ecological implications; yet, the non-food sector has attained little attention in land footprint studies. This paper provides the first assessment of the global cropland footprint of non-food products of the European Union (EU), a globally important region regarding its expanding bio-based economy. We apply a novel hybrid land flow accounting model, combining the biophysical trade model LANDFLOW with the multi-regional input-output model EXIOBASE. The developed hybrid approach improves the level of product and country detail, while comprehensively covering all global supply chains from agricultural production to final consumption, including highly-processed products, such as many non-food products. The results highlight the EU's role as a major processing and the biggest consuming region of cropland-based non-food products while at the same time relying heavily on imports. Two thirds of the cropland required to satisfy the EU's non-food biomass consumption are located in other world regions, particularly in China, the US and Indonesia, giving rise to potential impacts on distant ecosystems. With almost 39% in 2010, oilseeds used to produce for example biofuels, detergents and polymers represented the dominant share of the EU's non-food cropland demand. Traditional non-food biomass uses, such as fibre crops for textiles and animal hides and skins for leather products, also contributed notably (22%). Our findings suggest that if the EU Bioeconomy Strategy is to support global sustainable development, a detailed monitoring of land use displacement and spillover effects is decisive for targeted and effective EU policy making.

This study aims to present a comprehensive review of the status of biofuels developments around the world and the policy regimes and support measures driving this evolution. It assesses the agro-ecological potential of all major biofuels crops, both first and second generation. It evaluates the social, environmental and economic impacts and implications of biofuels developments on transport fuel security, climate change mitigation, agricultural prices, food security, land use change and sustainable agricultural development