Suchergebnisse

IN ORDER TO ACHIEVE HIS POLICY GOALS, THE PRESIDENT MUST PERSUADE CONGRESS TO SUPPORT HIS PREFERENCES. RICHARD NEUSTADT (1960) SUGGESTS THAT THE PRESIDENT'S TASK IS EASED CONSIDERABLY IF HE IS POPULAR WITH THE PUBLIC. MORE RECENT QUANTITATIVE STUDIES TEND TO SUPPORTS NEUSTADT'S CONCLUSIONS (EDWARDS 1976, 1977, 1980; BOND AND FLEISHER 1980). ALTHOUGH THE FINDINGS OF THESE STUDIES HAVE GAINED WIDE ACCEPTANCE, MAJOR CONCEPTUAL AND METHODOLOGICAL FLAWS IN THE ANALYSES RAISE DOUBTS ABOUT THE IMPORTANCE OF PUBLIC OPINION AS A SOURCE OF PRESIDENTIAL INFLUENCE IN CONGRESS. THE PURPOSE OF THIS PAPER IS TO REEXAMINE THE LINK BETWEEN THE PRESIDENT'S POPULARITY WITH THE PUBLIC AND THE SUCCESS OF HIS POLICY PREFERENCES IN CONGRESS USING A RESEARCH DESIGN THAT CORRECTS SOME OF THE MAJOR PROBLEMS IN PREVIOUS STUDIES. THE PAPER IS DIVIDED INTO FOUR SECTIONS. THE FIRST SECTION REVIEWS AND CRITIQUES PAST RESEARCH ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PUBLIC OPINION AND PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESS IN CONGRESS. THE SECOND SECTION DESCRIBES THE DATA AND MEASURES USED IN OUR ANALYSIS. THE THIRD SECTION PRESENTS RESULTS INDICATING THAT THE EFFECT OF PUBLIC OPINION ON PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESS IN CONGRESS IS MORE LIMITED THAN PREVIOUS WORK WOULD SUGGEST, WHILE THE FINAL SECTION OFFERS CONCLUSIONS AND POSSIBLE EXPLANATIONS OF THE LIMITED INFLUENCE OF PUBLIC OPINION ON PRESIDENTIAL-CONGRESSIONAL RELATIONS.

IN THIS ARTICLE THE AUTHORS TEST SEVERAL HYPOTHESES-COMMITTEE UNITY, COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN SUPPORT, MAJORITY LEADER SUPPORT, MINORITY LEADER SUPPORT, TIMING DURING THE SESSION, AND TYPE OF POLICY ISSUE-THAT PREVIOUS RESEARCH IDENTIFIES AS EXPLANATIONS OF VARIATION IN THE SUCCESS OR FAILURE OF FLOOR AMENDMENTS. THE AUTHORS FIND THAT COMMITTEE UNITY IS THE MOST IMPORTANT VARIABLE IN ALL CONTEXTS-IF THE COMMITTEE IS UNIFIED FOR OR AGAINST AN AMENDMENT, ITS POSITION IS ALMOST CERTAIN TO PREVAIL ON THE FLOOR. PARTY LEADERS, ALSO, OFTEN EXERT SIGNIFICANT INDEPENDENT EFFECTS ON THE SUCCESS OF FLOOR AMENDMENTS. THE EXTENT OF THEIR INFLUENCE, HOWEVER, VARIES WITH THE CONTEXT AND WITH THE DEGREE OF COMMITTEE UNITY. AND EVEN WHEN PARTY LEADERS EXERT SIGNIFICANT INDEPENDENT EFFECTS, THEIR SUPPORT FOR A FLOOR AMENDMENT RESULTS IN VERY SMALL CHANGES IN THE PROBABILITY OF PASSAGE, EXCEPT WHEN THE COMMITTEE REPORTING THE BILL IS DIVIDED. ALTHOUGH COMMITTEES MAY DOMINATE THE AMENDING PROCESS IF THEY ARE UNIFIED, ACHIEVING UNITY ON THE FLOOR MAY BE BEYOND COMMITTEE CONTROL TO MANIPULATE. BECAUSE COMMITTEES ARE USUALLY DIVIDED ON THE FLOOR, INFLUENCE OVER POLICYMAKING IN CONGRESS IS TYPICALLY SHARED AMONG DIFFERENT INSTITUTIONAL ACTORS.