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This article reflects the feedback of empirical research on theorizing about international relations. The empirical results obtained by both Faber (1987a) and Houweling & Siccama (1988) can be explained by the theory of risky prospects developed by Tversky & Kahneman (1981). As this theory is easily integrated into Simon's concept of bounded rationality in human decision-taking, a theoretical framework for the explanation of international relations based on the resulting theoretical notions concerning human decision-taking is developed. Accordingly, decision-taking by governments concerning international relations is conceived to be steered by their bounded rationality with respect to their behavioural options and interaction opportunities and the goal of minimizing losses in their relative power positions with respect to foreign as well as domestic contenders. Because military power capabilities are not equally distributed across the member-states of the international system, the relative power positions of nations result in group-formation among them due to either actual domination or fear of domination. The dynamics of group-interactions is argued to give rise to global stability in international relations. When the power position of a nation deteriorates and the dynamics of group-interactions is absent the probability of an outbreak of war rises sharply.

"Decision-taking" by state actors in international relations is examined in an analysis of secondary data & applications of the theory of risky prospects, developed by Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman ("The Framing of Decisions and Psychology of Choice," Science, 1981, 211, 453-458). This theory is integrated into Herbert A. Simon's concept of bounded rationality in human decision-taking (Reason in Human Affairs, Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1983). A theoretical framework for the explanation of international relations based on the resulting theoretical notions concerning human decision-taking is developed & explained. 32 References. Adapted from the source document.

The measurement of cooperation and/or conflict among nations differs greatly among several empirical studies of international relations. Therefore research has been done into the multidimensionality of both behavioral concepts and their relationship on the basis of data available in COPDAB. First, cooperation and conflict among nations proved to be positively related to each other. This result turned out to be very reliable over time as well as across space, for instance, in different groups of nations. Secondly, it was found that there exists a highly connected social network among nine major groups of nations showing homogenous behavior with respect to each other and other nations. Both results suggest that within this social network a high degree of responsiveness to escalatory behavior of any group of nations has a negative feedback effect upon further escalation.

Based on analysis of the Conflict and Peace Databank (COPDAB), containing worldwide figures on acts of governments, 1948-78.

Der vorliegende Beitrag prüft die Relevanz der Chaos-Theorie für die Sozialwissenschaften. Die Anwendung von Chaos-Modellen zur Analyse von sozialen Phänomenen wirft einige wichtige methodologische Fragen auf. Chaos-Modelle sind nicht-lineare mathematische Modelle. Bei ihrer Anwendung auf soziale Probleme diskutieren die Autoren hauptsächlich die Frage der internen und externen Validität. Das Fazit der Ausführungen läßt sich wie folgt zusammenfassen: Den Sozialwissenschaften ist wenig mit der Anwendung elaborierter mathematischer Modelle gedient, wenn das theoretische Verständnis und Wissen über die zugrundeliegenden dynamischen Prozesse unzureichend ist. Erst wenn diese Voraussetzung erfüllt ist, lassen sich Modelle der Chaos Theorie in die Sozialwissenschaften mit Nutzen einbringen. (pmb)

In quantitative research into the causes of war there is a tradition in asking the question whether there is any systematic pattern in time. Do wars come in cycles? Is there an upward trend in the frequency of warfare or are wars disappearing gradually? In addition, some investigations have been made on the war-proneness of nations. Are some nations inclined to fight more than others? Or are chances that states resort to violence equal? Using the data collected in the Correlates of War (COW) Project, this study attempts to test the interactive effects of temporal and spatial aspects of warfare over the period 1816-1980. Results show that outbreaks of war within specific regions (Europe, the Americas, Asia, the Middle East and Africa) are not related to outbreaks elsewhere in the international system. Furthermore, warfare in Europe has a distinct epidemiological character, while in other regions it has not.