Suchergebnisse

Frontmatter -- Contents -- Tables -- Figures -- Preface -- Abbreviations -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The MC Model -- 3 Interest Rate Effects -- 4 Testing the NAIRU Model -- 5 U.S. Wealth Effects -- 6 Testing for a New Economy in the 1990s -- 7 A "Modern" View of Macroeconomics -- 8 Estimated European Inflation Costs -- 9 Stochastic Simulation and Bootstrapping -- 10 Certainty Equivalence -- 11 Evaluating Policy Rules -- 12 EMU Stabilization Costs -- 13 RE Models -- 14 Model Comparisons -- 15 Conclusion -- Appendix A The US Model -- Appendix B The ROW Model -- References -- Index

Using a rich array of examples, this book clearly and simply shows how a host of diverse events can be explained and predicted using statistics and tools from social science. The text moves from a discussion of formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions.

Intro -- Contents -- List of Tables -- List of Figures -- Preface -- Abbreviations -- 1. Introduction -- 2. The MC Model -- 3. Interest Rate Effects -- 4. Testing the NAIRU Model -- 5. U.S. Wealth Effects -- 6. Testing for a New Economy in the 1990s -- 7. A "Modern" View of Macroeconomics -- 8. Estimated European Inflation Costs -- 9. Stochastic Simulation and Bootstrapping -- 10. Certainty Equivalence -- 11. Evaluating Policy Rules -- 12. EMU Stabilization Costs -- 13. RE Models -- 14. Model Comparisons -- 15. Conclusion -- Appendix A: The US Model -- Appendix B: The ROW Model -- References -- Index.

Abstract
This paper lists 19 points that follow from results I have obtained using a structural macroeconomic model (SEM). Such models are more closely tied to the aggregate data than are DSGE models, and I argue that DSGE models and similar models should have properties that are consistent with these points. The aim is to try to bring macro back to its empirical roots.