Suchergebnisse

Preliminary literature review and expert consultation to identify key species in Lebanon that could be impacted by climate change for future monitoring

In this paper, we analyze the susceptibility of agricultural outputs to future climate change in Lebanon, and the extent to which it propagates to the economic system as a whole. We use a methodological framework in which physical and economic models are integrated for assessing the higher-order economic impacts of projected climate changes. By using this integrated modeling approach, we are able to quantify the broader economic impacts in the country by considering not only the temporal dimension but also the regional disaggregation of the results. Our estimates suggest that there are high potential costs and risks associated with a burden to the poorer and more vulnerable regions of the country.

There is wide agreement that a nexus or integrated approach to managing and governing natural resources such as land, water, and energy can improve environmental, climate, human, and political security. However, few if any countries in the MENA region have made progress in implementing such an approach. There appear to be several constraints inhibiting the development and adoption of nexus approaches. These constraints include strong sectoral silos, insufficient incentives for integrated planning and policy making at all levels, and limited vision, knowledge, and practical experience to guide successful implementation. In turn, the limited implementation and hence lack of empirical evidence of a nexus approach, which could demonstrate its benefits, does little to strengthen political will for the development of adequate incentives, structures, and procedures. Against this backdrop, this paper presents five case studies which take an integrated approach, in three MENA countries, namely Jordan, Lebanon, and Morocco. Based on an analytical framework developed here, the paper analyses and compares the success factors for nexus implementation, and also for transfer and upscaling. The analysis emphasizes the need for appropriate framework conditions, targeted investments and pioneering actors, to make integrated approaches across sectors and levels work. With the evidence presented, the paper aims to set in motion a positive or virtuous cycle of generating more nexus evidence, improved framework conditions, further nexus implementation on the ground, and from that even more nexus evidence. Finally, the paper contributes to overcoming the repeated requests for better definition and conceptualization of the nexus, which often has slowed down adoption of the concept. © 2019 Hoff, Alrahaife, El Hajj, Lohr, Mengoub, Farajalla, Fritzsche, Jobbins, özerol, Schultz and Ulrich.