Suchergebnisse

NAZLI CHOUCRI'S BOOK IS THE FINAL OUTCOME OF A 10-YEAR "PILOT ANALYSIS" WHICH BEGAN IN 1970. IT IS DIVIDED INTO FOUR PARTS. PART ONE REPRESENTS THE ENERGY PROBLEM FROM THE DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVES OF THE PRODUCING COUNTRIES, THE OIL-IMPORTING COUNTRIES, AND THE INTERNATIONAL OIL COMPANIES" (P. IX). IT IS IN THIS PART THAT MODEL VARIABLES ARE DEVELOPED. THIS MODEL (INTERNATIONAL PETROLEUM EXCHANGE OR IPE) WAS INITIALLY DEVELOPED AT MIT AND, DESPITE SOME WORTHWHILE EFFECTIVENESS, SUFFERS FROM THE GENERAL PROBLEM THAT ALL SUCH ATTEMPTS SHARE: OVERGENERALIZATION, SUPERFICIALITY, AND DIVERGENCE FROM REALITY. FOR EXAMPLE, "THE IPE MODEL STRESSES THE INTERDEPENDENCE OF ALL THREE ENTITIES: THE PRODUCER COUNTRIES, THE CONSUMER NATIONS, AND THE INTERNATIONAL OIL COMPANIES" (P. 8), AND THAT THIS INTERDEPENDENCE WAS "FULLY APPRECIATED" ONLY AFTER 1973 (P. 3). IN FACT, HOWEVER, THIS RELATIONSHIP IS ANYTHING BUT INTERDEPENDENT. THE POSITION OF OIL COMPANIES IS A FUNCTION OF, NOT INTERDEPENDENT WITH, THE PRODUCER COUNTRIES AND THE PREVAILING MARKET FORCES INSTANCE, WHEN THERE IS A SHORTAGE OF OIL THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN

ROBERT LOONEY'S BOOK IS A WELCOME ADDITION TO A GROWING LIST OF STUDIES ON SAUDI ARABIA. REFLECTING THE AUTHOR'S VAST KNOWLEDGE OF THE AREA, THE BOOK IS, FOR THE MOST PART, AN ACCURATE AND ELECTRIC ESSAY ON SAUDI ARABIA, ITS CULTURE, PEOPLE, AND ECONOMY. AN EXCELLENT "FRAME OF ANALYSIS" IS DEVELOPED FOR THE STUDY OF THE ISLAMIC SYSTEM, WHICH THE AUTHOR RIGHTLY CONSIDERS INSEPARABLE FROM ANY WORK ON SAUDI ARABIA. DESPITE SOME DIVERSIONS, THIS FORMAT IS USED EFFECTIVELY IN CONCEPTUALIZING A SURVEY OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF AN OLD DOGMATIC BELIEF SYSTEM WITH THE OPERATIONS OF A MODERN-DAY, RAPIDLY CHANGING ECONOMY. THE BOOK'S MAIN CONTRIBUTION TO THE FIELD IS THE COMPILATION OF DATA THAT IT PROVIDES. WHILE THE ACCURACY OF MANY OF THE SOURCES-MOSTLY SAUDI ARABIAN AND OTHERS FAVORABLY INCLINED--IS QUESTIONABLE; THE AUTHOR'S DILIGENCE IN COMPILING THE DATA AND ANALYZING THEM-ALBEIT NOT VERY CRITICALLY--IS NOT. IN THIS CONTEXT, SOME OF THE QUOTED FIGURES DO NOT SUPPORT THE SUBJECTIVE CONCLUSIONS OF THE AUTHOR. FOR EXAMPLE, THE CONCLUSION THAT SAUDI ARABIA HAS NOT EXPERIENCED "MASS INFLATION" (P.14) IS IN CONTRAST TO THE OFFICIAL HIGHLY UNDERSTATED FIGURES INDICATE A MORE THAN 200 PER CENT INFLATION IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS COVERED BY THE STUDY (P.76).