Suchergebnisse

AbstractRecent studies exploiting city-level time series have shown that, around the world, several crimes declined after COVID-19 containment policies have been put in place. Using data at the community-level in Chicago, this work aims to advance our understanding on how public interventions affected criminal activities at a finer spatial scale. The analysis relies on a two-step methodology. First, it estimates the community-wise causal impact of social distancing and shelter-in-place policies adopted in Chicago via Structural Bayesian Time-Series across four crime categories (i.e., burglary, assault, narcotics-related offenses, and robbery). Once the models detected the direction, magnitude and significance of the trend changes, Firth's Logistic Regression is used to investigate the factors associated to the statistically significant crime reduction found in the first step of the analyses. Statistical results first show that changes in crime trends differ across communities and crime types. This suggests that beyond the results of aggregate models lies a complex picture characterized by diverging patterns. Second, regression models provide mixed findings regarding the correlates associated with significant crime reduction: several relations have opposite directions across crimes with population being the only factor that is stably and positively associated with significant crime reduction.

This study aims to construct a consolidated crime script of cross-border illicit waste trafficking by analysing similarities in modus operandi. In addition, factors enabling illicit waste trafficking were studied. Research questions were analysed from a situational crime prevention point of view by applying crime script analysis to 13 judiciary case studies of illicit cross-border waste trafficking obtained from the Netherlands, Italy and Finland. The findings suggest that the potential offender usually has advanced knowledge of the waste market and of the legislation and regulation. The case studies also suggest that the lack and misuse of appropriate licenses and falsified documentation, as well as taking advantage of illicit and licit networks in facilitating activities, are prevailing characteristics in the illicit cross-border trafficking of waste. Despite the small number of cases, the findings imply the need to focus crime prevention efforts on the early stages of the crime commission process, such as planning the crime.

Counterfeiting is a global phenomenon that threatens the economic stability and sustainable growth of countries. A growing number of researchers, stakeholders, and public or private institutions have been producing a wide variety of studies and estimates on counterfeit markets. However, these studies are varied in scope and sometimes based on unclear methodologies. This prevents comparisons across time and space. In recent decades, Transcrime has contributed to the development of transparent and rigorous methodologies for the analysis of illegal activities. This study presents an update of the approach used by Transcrime to estimate the size of the various counterfeit markets at EU level. It starts with a brief review of what is known about counterfeiting in the EU (i.e. routes, products, consumers and previous studies). It then proposes new estimates of the expenditures for ten different counterfeit markets in the 28 EU Member States using a demand-size approach. Finally, it discusses policy and research implications.

This report provides the first country profile of the Factbook on the Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products project. The country profile focuses on the UK, where the illicit trade in tobacco products (hereinafter ITTP) has become an important concern since the 1990s. Although Government action since 2000 has successfully reduced the market share of illicit tobacco, the UK's illegal market is still above the average of other EU Member States

This report provides the country profile of the project The Factbook on the Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products. It focuses on Germany, where illicit trade in tobacco products is not a political priority and there are no official estimates. Nevertheless, German Authorities, and especially German Customs are aware of the problem of cigarette smuggling.