This study evaluates the channels of crises transmission from Russia to the CIS countries on the basis of a Bayesian vector autoregression model. The empirical base of the study consists of 11 macroeconomic indicators of the CIS countries on quarterly data for the period from 2002 to 2015. It has been revealed that the monetary channel of transmission plays the main role. The economy of the CIS countries reacts stronger to the financial stress in Russia than the Russian economy itself, and over time the impact of the financial stress in Russia on the economy of the CIS countries only increases on average by1.5-2 times throughout the year.
Эскалация военных действий в Мали выходит за рамки регионального конфликта, что предстаёт прямой угрозой для государств Южной Европы и Средиземноморья. Основываясь на уникальной космополитической, геополитической и энергетической роли Испании между Европой и странами Магриба, сделана попытка системного анализа влияния войны в Мали на национальные интересы Королевства. ; The theme of this research is updated by the escalation of theconflict in the Maghreb - the war in Mali. Progressive militaryaction in the North African state are aggravated by religiousaspect, as well as the participation of the armed terrorist groups,which in their totality exacerbates geopolitical instability in theregion. In the context of the above situation remains urgentsearch for solutions to this problem for Spain, for which theMaghreb and sub-Saharan Africa region is an area of vital andstrategic interests.The purpose of the study - to analyze the features of thecurrent war in Mali, to determine its impact on Spain's nationalinterests in the region and explore the religious dimension of theconflict.Based on an analysis of theoretical studies on the problemsof the article and the practical steps, based on the unique andsubjective subtleties of Spanish politics, we can say that Spain'skey interests is recorded in the Southern Mediterranean - azone of absolute strategic interests of national significance, asevidenced by the current National Defense Strategy of Spain,as well as practical steps foreign policy officials of the state.Here are concentrated very close economic, trade, political andhumanitarian ties, and at the same time, a painful problem forthe country.The war in Mali appeared a serious threat to the nationalinterests of Spain in the sub-Saharan region, and it should becharacterized as a local hot spot of intercontinental values, withthe participation of radical Islamist groups, whose developmentin the future could lead to an escalation of the asymmetricconflict between civilizations. Malian war affects many aspectsthat in the near future may develop into more serious conflicts,including: international, energy, faith. ; Ескалація військових дій в Малі виходить за рамкирегіонального конфлікту, що постає прямою загрозоюдля держав Південної Європи та Середземномор'я.Ґрунтуючись на унікальній космополітичній, геополітичнійта енергетичній ролі Іспанії між Європою і країнамиМагрибу, зроблено спробу системного аналізу впливу війнив Малі на національні інтереси Королівства.
In this paper, using an econometric model (the model with Markov switchings), monetary policy of the Russian Federation in 2001—2011 is studied, based on the Taylor rule. CBR's policy priorities in relation to inflation and the exchange rate in the given period are identified. Monetary tools are revealed, which support the mode selected by the CBR.
FDI is believed to be very helpful for the national economy's development. It is expected to increase the profitability and productivity of domestic companies. The analysis of balance sheets of Russian enterprises shows that for the period2004-2012 foreign investment caused horizontal and vertical spillovers in economic sectors. But this impact is ambiguous. Econometric modeling establishes the significant positive role of backward spillover. This means that national suppliers gain benefits from international interaction and become more effective due to technological and knowledge inflow from abroad.
This paper presents the method of forecasting financial crises in developing countries based on a list of crisis indicators. It helps find critical indicators and the combination of key indicators using modern econometric modeling.
This article describes general monitoring of the global economic system status as the initial stage of anti-crisis state policy. Evaluation results may be used by governments to identify crisis situations in the domestic economy and take prompt actions. We propose for the first time the estimation of crises transmission channels and indicators for the 2008-2009 crisis basing on the evidence from developed and developing countries, including the CIS countries. We also suggest using the index of pressure on the financial market concept (EMP) as an indicator of financial crisis and evaluation criterion of anti-crisis policy.
The paper presents the estimation of sanctions influence on the results of domestic companies on the basis of spillover effects. It is shown that the strength of sanctions influence is mainly determined by the processing chain in terms of industry foreign trade relations structure. During the whole period under analysis (from 2005 to 2012) the companies' earnings were influenced mostly by German investment (import, export and horizontal country spillovers are significant). Investment from China also affected national companies during the crisis of 2008-2009. Import-driven (productive) industries suffer from sanction regime that is confirmed by the significance of import and export spillover of FDI from the countries, which introduced the sanctions.
