Statements about the future do not fall under the constraints of classical logic. They are not true or false. They are undetermined, so-called future contingents. This unescapable uncertainty is a source of stress and discomfort for all, political leaders included. The use of scenario planning for decision-making is a way to reduce this discomfort, and to develop strategies that are better able to cope with surprise. However, the development of scenarios requires underlying mental models, however loose. All models are wrong, with one exception. All others degrade the information to make it manageable with our cognitive limitations. This degrading is done across several dimensions. A useful framework proposes a trade-off between precision, realism and generality. Another major limitation is the representation of human agency in these models, a critical determinant of the dynamics of social and ecological systems. The manner in which agency is represented is often unsatisfactory. We present here how we overcame these trade-offs and obstacles, clarifying here the contribution of different forms of models to the development of narratives of possible futures. To explore the futures of the forests of the Congo Basin, we developed theoretical, empirical and process-based models that merge expert, local and scientific knowledge, integrating social, economic, governance, ecological and geophysical processes. These models represent, predict and explain regional trajectories of landscape change at the time scale of 50 to 100 years. The scenarios explicitly address different management and policy options. Taken together, these three types of models explain what will happen to the forests of the Congo Basin in the coming decades, how and why. As in any good crime story, this leaves only two questions unanswered: who? and when? But these are no longer questions scientists can explore. These belong to the realm of strategy and decision making. They belong to the realm political will, corporate commitments, and stakeholder livelihood strategies.
In Central Africa, oil palm is a major food-crop used in everyday cooking. All the countries of the region are importing palm oil, often from south-east Asia, to cover their domestic demand. Palm oil production is dominated by small scale agriculture, with a diversity going from the small backyard garden to the monospecific plantation of several hundred hectares. Most of the industrial plantations date from colonial periods. New industrial plantations have been expanding in the last decade, with successes and failures, with the help of southeast Asian and European multinationals and domestic investors. The States want to increase their national palm oil production and industrial investments. They hope for socioeconomic benefits and food security. Such plans for agricultural development also present threats such as deforestation, loss of biodiversity and land use conflicts, and caution and planning are needed to avoid negative social and environmental impacts. In order to provide decision-makers with accurate information and useful decision-making tools to plan the development of the palm oil sector at national and subregional scales, the WWF asked CIRAD to map lands potentially favourable to the production of sustainable (P&C RSPO) palm oil in 5 countries of the Congo basin: Cameroon, Gabon, Republic of Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo and Republic of Central Africa. We use a step by step method to 1/ measure and locate territories which are suitable for oil palm culture, 2/ prevent threats over biodiversity and land use by respecting the social and environmental constraints edited by the principles and criteria of the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (P&C RSPO), 3/ plan development strategies for palm oil production which are coherent with the national context and specificities (through an evaluation of the adequacy of various production models). The maps resulting from this study are useful decision-making tools that allow analysing trade-offs between opportunities of production and prevention of threats on biodiversity and land use issues. These maps can be useful in the design of national programs of agricultural development that avoid deforestation and preserve biodiversity corridors. Our results in Gabon are consistent with the maps of biodiversity and conservation importance produced by the National Agency of National Parks. In Republic of Congo, they are used in the discussions on the agricultural component of the REDD+ program. (Texte intégral)
In Central Africa, industrial investments in agriculture have been increasing for the last ten years, constituting one of the many drivers of deforestation. If these investments are to contribute to socioeconomic development without harming the environment,they need to be more effectively monitored.Analysing successes and failures in four Central African countries helps to identify ways to increase the chances of success for projects: carrying out independent impact assessments before projects are launched; obtaining the free, prior and informed consent of the communities concerned; and encouraging companies to meet certification criteria. The host governments should be able to take advantage of actions by people- and environment-friendly companies in order to create a virtuous circle, and should build agro-industrial projects around national land use plans.
In the Americas, the palm oil sector has been gaining importance in the last 20 years. Although in 2018 the region only accounted for 7.1% of global palm oil production, it is one of the largest suitable areas for oil palm cultivation. We conducted a literature review on how the sector developed and how its development influenced private and public actors in their choice among three categories of arrangements between oil palm growers and palm oil extraction units. We grouped cases reported in the literature in three categories: corporate models, contract farming, and growers' organizations. The two latter categories emerged in response to the call for better inclusion of growers in the value chain, for local development, and for sustainable production; they now represent almost 30% of production in the region. All the parties involved are pushing for more sustainable production. National governments intend to regulate production, and private companies are engaging in certification and fair partnerships with producers of fruit bunches. However, there are still many negative impacts on the environment, on local populations, and on biodiversity. Thus, although the Americas appear to be on the way to being leaders of sustainability in the palm oil sector, challenges remain.
The communication presents an analysis of lands potentially favorable to the production of sustainable palm oil in accordance with the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) principles and criteria, in 5 countries: Cameroon, Gabon, Republic of Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo and Central African Republic. A spatial modeling exercise locates the areas (I) suitable to oil palm, (II) available after taking into account the RSPO social and environmental constraints, (III) profitable according to various production models. The two production models tested consist of an industry associated with out-growers, and smallholders' plantations associated with family extraction and micro oil mills. The smallholders model was declined in two scenarios, the first regarding as available only lands currently not-cultivated, the second authorizing the plantation of palm trees on lands used for commercial crops at a minimal distance of 2 km of villages (reserved for food-crops). The maps generated are useful decision-making tools.
There is a link between agricultural systems (crops of basic grains, livestock, agroforestry systems for coffee and cocoa) and poor populations in rural areas. These land uses not only provide food, but also other ecosystem services (SE). In turn, each of these farming systems impacts the communities differently and the benefits they provide are perceived differently, for both men and women.In Nicaragua, agricultural production in rural and poor areas is poorly technified and is closely linked to the benefits offered by nature. The main objective of the study was to determine the importance of land uses in the provision of different ecosystem services with a gender focus. We studied nine farming communities in three municipalities in the center and north of Nica-ragua: El Tuma-La Dalia, Waslala and Siuna. We conducted 58 semi-structured interviews and 13 open interviews with key informants in order to determine access to the SEs. We also conducted two focus groups per community, one for men and one for women, using partici-patory mappings and the pebble distribution method, in total 41 men and 53 women attended. Our study finds that the use of forest land is one of the largest providers for SE communities; however, it is perceived as one of the least contributes to the family's economy. We also find that the land uses that provide the most benefits for women are the urban center and the crops of basic grains, while for men it is the agroforestry system.
Deforestation contributes to carbon emissions and therefore to climate change. Within food systems, agricultural production is the stage which plays the largest role in deforestation and forest degradation, and it is therefore the focus of this chapter. There is a critical link between food systems and deforestation. Arable lands most often have a forested past. It might be ancestral, with deforestation having happened in the early occupation of land by humans or be very recent on current forest frontiers. Over the past two decades, commercial agriculture has overtaken subsistence agriculture as the main driver of deforestation in LI and LMI countries, especially in tropical areas.
With biodiversity being lost at unprecedented rates, mitigating the impacts of development projects is a growing concern. International best practice indicates that projects located in natural habitats must achieve no net loss of biodiversity, or preferably a net gain. To do so, when development projects generate impacts on biodiversity that could not be sufficiently avoided or reduced, offsets must be designed and implemented to effectively and fully compensate for the residual loss of biodiversity, by generating measurable conservation gains elsewhere. There are considerable technical and organizational challenges to designing and implementing biodiversity offsets, which must also respect the legal and customary rights of local populations. Offset frameworks have been put in place in several countries worldwide but, in many circumstances, it is financial institutions and multinational companies that require these approaches as part of their risk management strategies. As such, they represent an important external influence on the future of tropical forested landscapes. A further challenge, however, is that developing countries, eager to access their natural resources, don't all share this ambition. We illustrate this with mining development in the tropical forest landscape which straddles the borders of Cameroon, Gabon and the Republic of Congo. Conservationists fear that the infrastructure being built to service an emerging iron ore province will reduce a large intact forest landscape to a mosaic of isolated protected areas no longer fit to conserve its mega-fauna or maintain large scale ecosystem processes. We use companion modelling techniques to build a model of the socio-ecological system, and develop future scenarios. In doing so, we map the role of various actors in making these futures possible. A key conclusion is that managing the impacts of mining development requires a strategic and multi-sectorial landscape-level approach, rather than dealing with each separate project sequentially. We identify key enabling conditions for this to happen, including sciencebased knowledge and tools, and more effective institutions. These lessons are applicable to other large intact forest landscapes under threat from infrastructure and industrial development, and we discuss the role of international best practices in driving the future of these tropical forested landscapes. (Texte intégral)
The Tri-National Dja - Odzala - Minkebe Forest landscape (TRIDOM) covers 178000 km2 across the borders of Cameroon, Gabon and the Republic of Congo. Almost 97% is covered by sparsely populated lowland tropical rainforest and is globally important for the conservation of large mammals (elephants, gorillas, chimpanzees). It is also an emerging iron ore province with several deposits currently being explored and two mining projects ready for exploitation. Encouraging investment while respecting the legal and customary rights of local populations and conserving biodiversity represents a major challenge. Conservationists fear that the needed infrastructure (railroads, roads, transmission lines, hydropower dams) and the associated impacts (especially from the influx of population) will lead to the fragmentation of TRIDOM. It risks being reduced to a mosaic of vulnerable, isolated protected areas, no longer fit to conserve its mega-fauna or maintain large scale ecosystem processes, but developing mining projects with a no-net loss (NNL) or even a net gain (NG) biodiversity objective as a condition for access to finance raises considerable technical and institutional challenges. A landscape-level approach is needed to take into account and mitigate indirect and cumulative impacts. Land-use rights are granted through sector-specific concessions that have varying requirements in terms of biodiversity and rural livelihoods. Elaborating long-term arrangements for implementing and financing biodiversity offsets will thus require close collaboration between financial institutions, mining companies, conservation NGOs and government bodies from different sectors. We investigate the opportunities and obstacles for achieving NNL/NG objectives in the TRIDOM and draw lessons for other biodiversity-rich landscapes faced with the perspective of large-scale environmental and socio-economic changes.
Sustainability is crucial for biofuels and bioenergy production in general. However, historically speaking, the biofuels industry has largely ignored sustainability criteria and consequently has been the source of considerable controversy. Despite a real expansion worldwide, biofuels development has still to face many barriers in the three pillars of sustainability. In the environmental domain, biofuels have to face accusations of deforestation, loss of biodiversity, carbon emission, water usage, etc. In the economic domain, they are accused to compete with other land uses for basic needs such as food and material , and they must prove that they are more viable than oil and other renewable energies. In the social domain, they also have to answer to complaints about land grabbing, rural poverty, social acceptance. Over the past twenty years, a large number of studies aimed to estimate the amount of bioenergy that can be produced in a sustainable manner. Results are very contrasted for many reasons mainly due to the heterogeneity of methodologies, definitions, assumptions and datasets employed. However, most studies agree that among all possible sources of biomass energy, energy crops are considered as the most important. Other crops and forest residues can also be good sources but do not reach the potential of energy crops. These studies lead to consider that the main potential contribution of biomass for energy production will depend on one hand of the energy crops yields and on the other hand on the quantity, the quality and the location of available land to cultivate. Considering that grassland, savannah or shrubland are idle or non-used land, most of the studies locate the majority of potentially available land in developing countries, in Sub-Saharan Africa and South America. But there is considerable debates about the availability of land in these regions and many authors point out the need for a clearer picture of what it means. Thus, land availability is maybe the most crucial parameters in sustainable potential assessment. But this concept of availability encompasses many interlinked factors and is lacking a clear definition. Depending on methodologies, availability may include technical or economic or social or legal or environmental factors, or multiple combinations of these different factors. However, since the 1990s, in order to guarantee the sustainability of the global bioenergy potential, several governments, NGOs and private companies have proposed ecological and social sustainability criteria which bioenergy has to fulfill. Since the early 2000s a set of voluntary standards have emerged in the Agro-food sector. They are produced through multi-stakeholder initiatives (MSI), which are presented as their main source of legitimacy. Many of these initiatives also called "Roundtables" are recognized and used in the sector of biofuel feedstock production : Roundtable for sustainable Palm Oil ( RSPO 2004), Roundtable for Responsible Soy (RTRS 2006), Better Sugar Cane Initiative (BSI), Better Cotton Initiative (BCI), and Round Table Sustainable Biofuels (RSB). All these standards have in common to define principles and criteria that restrain the availability of land dedicated to energy crops. They place restrictions on i) the types of land that may be used to grow energy crops and on ii) the social and technical models of production. According to these schemes availability of land is defined by criteria including technical factors (slope, soil, …), legal factors (land rights, respect of legal conservation areas), logistics factors (accessibility, distance to plants), environmental factors (high conservation values, carbon stocks), conversion factors (loss of biodiversity, zero deforestation), or food security factors (no competition with food crops), etc. These standards are still controversial and without doubt need to be improved, but in many countries including developing ones they currently drive feedstock production and therefore land availability for energy crops. The main objective of this paper is to propose a spatially explicit methodology to assess and analyze land availability for energy crops at national scale. The originality of this methodology is to start from existing sustainability standards of production and to translate principles and criteria into spatial constraints of availability. The methodological framework is applied in two West African countries : Mali and Burkina Faso. The application shows that taking into account farms structures and sustainable production rules reduces the land considered to be available by a factor of at least 4. The other key lesson is that family agriculture and contract farming may present viable alternatives to agro-industrial models. The advantage of this approach is that the scenarios built do not represent starting points of the assessment, but are rather one of the results. The scenarios and the production models are clearly formalized and thus represent topics of discussion which can be understood by producers and decision makers, allowing rules for the sustainable use of areas to be negotiated and refined.
In Central Nicaragua, in a rural landscape where trees grow everywhere, we studied the relations between land uses and the perception of ecosystem services (ES) provision by farmers. We worked in 3 municipalities and interviewed more than 100 households distributed among 10 communities, from 2016 to 2018. During gender specific focus groups we produced participatory maps of land uses (following Braslow et al. 2016), localized ES with the Pebble Distribution Method (described by Sheil et al. 2002), and analyzed land tenure issues using the analysis grid for land tenure proposed by Le Roy et al. (1996). Participatory observation (as detailed by Jankowski y Sabourin 2012) and semi-structured interviews (Newing 2010; Sibelet et al. 2013) were used to analyze livelihoods conditions, households' economies (data later analyzed with the support of Olympe software), and determining factors regarding land uses and tree planting. Results prove no relation between land tenure security and the plantation of trees. Land occupation by any farming system with or without trees, such as food crop or pasture, is informally recognized as proof of ownership. Farmers plant trees around their house, in pastures or on the borders of paths, for the high value they attached to them. Trees provide goods (timber, fuel wood, fruits, medicine…) and services (preservation of soils and water resources, regulation of pests and diseases, action on the local climate), and are also recognized for their social value. With the same logic, both women and men recognized forest as the main land use regarding ES provision. By contrast, they consider it of less interest than agricultural land uses regarding household's income and livelihoods. Logging is not a well-remunerated activity, and the forestry law imposes strong restrictions to timber sale. Women and men farmers perceived that forests are important for soil, water and biodiversity preservation. They may provide fuel wood and timber for family needs, but these are also provided by trees in agroforestry systems and elsewhere in the farm. Indeed, fuel wood is more often collected in agroforestry systems, including sylvopastoral ones, as are fruits and medicines. Timber trees might be preserved when opening new agricultural lands over forests, for later use, and timber species spontaneous regrowth in agricultural lands might be protected by farmers. Forests poorly contribute to the household's livelihood, trees within agroforestry systems provide the same ES than forests, and deforestation for agricultural land use conversion is a way to gain access to land. For these three reasons forests are converted into agricultural land uses until only remaining in locations of poor agricultural value. Because farmers value trees, these are preserved and even planted within agricultural lands, leading to a rich variety of agroforestry systems. As a result, agroforestry systems replace forests for their higher economic value to farmers.
