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ABSTRACTOne of the most fundamental questions surrounding the new Paris Agreement is whether countries? proposals to reduce GHG emissions after 2020 are equally ambitious, considering differences in circumstances between countries. We review a variety of approaches to assess the ambition of the GHG emission reduction proposals by countries. The approaches are applied illustratively to the mitigation part of the post-2020 climate proposals (nationally determined contributions, or NDCs) by China, the EU, and the US. The analysis reveals several clear trends, even though the results differ per individual assessment approach. We recommend that such a comprehensive ambition assessment framework, employing a large variety of approaches, is used in the future to capture a wide spectrum of perspectives on ambition.POLICY RELEVANCEAssessing the ambition of the national climate proposals is particularly important as the Paris Agreement asks for regular reviews of national contributions, keeping in mind that countries raise their ambition over time. Such an assessment will be an important part of the regular global stocktake that will take place every five years, starting with a ?light? version in 2018. However, comprehensive methods to assess the proposals are lacking. This article provides such a comprehensive assessment framework.

The adoption of the Paris Agreement with the long-term temperature limit has important repercussions for the distribution of effort between its signatories. The application of the equity and least-cost approaches to the distribution effort leadsto different outcomes. The disparity of the results from the equity and cost-effectiveness approaches can be closed by granting support to those countries for which least cost approach indicates much deeper emissions reduction than equity approaches. Since the transformation away from fossil fuels towards renewables can contribute to meeting a number of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the specific socio-economicand politicalcircumstances need to be taken into consideration when distributing emissions reduction effortand supporting. Contrary to the socio-economic framework which with few exception changes only slowly, the political environmental within which climate mitigation is taking place may change rapidly. These changes –positive and negative –have a spillover effect on other countries. This effect takes place even if the external impacts of a policy are not the explicit objective of certain policies (or lack thereof). But it can be considerably strengthened if domestic climate mitigation effort is accompanied with active leadership and support of transfer agents. The spillover effect creates an opportunity for the EU to influence emissions reductions well above those targeted by its own measures. Thus,it is essential for the EU to further specify its emissions reduction goal for 2050, adopt an ambitious emissions reduction goal for 2030, and create a robust policy framework to reach these goals.

The study analyses the country background, emissions trends, ongoing activities and barriers relating to the implementation of the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Colombia under the ⁠UNFCCC⁠. A special emphasis is laid on further mitigation potentials in the fields of renewable energy production from wind and solar PV, social housing, forest conservation in existing illicit crop substitution programmes and cattle. A chapter is dedicated to coal export and use.

The study analyses the country background, emissions trends, ongoing activities and barriers relating to the implementation of the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Ethiopia under the ⁠UNFCCC⁠. A special emphasis is laid on further mitigation potentials in the fields of agriculture, forestry and low-emission transport.

The study analyses the country background, emissions trends, ongoing activities and barriers relating to the implementation of the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of the Republic of Marshall Islands under the ⁠UNFCCC⁠. A special emphasis is laid on further mitigation potentials in the fields of transport – especially low-carbon domestic shipping – and waste reduction, disposal and processing.

This report is part of the "Implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions" (NDCs) project (FKZ 3716 4111 80), which considers NDC implementation in 10 countries: Colombia, Ethiopia, Georgia, Indonesia, Iran, Kenya, Marshall Islands, Morocco, Peru, and Viet Nam. This project places a special emphasis on identifying potential barriers to NDC implementation and mitigation potentials which could go beyond the current NDCs. The country reports analyse the NDCs in terms of their robustness and coherence with other national or sectoral plans and targets, and put them into the context of additional mitigation potentials and other national circumstances. For countries where coal plays a critical role in consumption or national production, the analysis covers further details on this sector, including the economic relevance and local impacts of coal production or consumption. The content is based on available literature from research and public sector information on policies and institutions. This report summarises the findings on coal given in the country reports of Colombia, Indonesia and Viet Nam. It has been augmented by a literature analysis on global coal trends and structural change in coal mining areas as well as very recent country specific publications which became available only after the finalisation of the three country reports. The project was suggested and is financed by the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety, supervised by the German Environment Agency and carried out by independent think tanks - NewClimate Institute and Wuppertal Institute. The country reports are a continuation of similar previous efforts (project numbers 3713 41 102, 3711 41 120, 360 16 022, 364 01 003 and 363 01 128) and aim to inform policy makers and the interested public about the implementation of NDCs in individual countries. The choice of countries is based on developing countries with which Germany works closely on climate change topics. The country reports are scientific in nature, and all suggestions are derived by the authors from careful analysis, having in mind the individual backgrounds of countries. They aim to increase knowledge about implementation of mitigation potentials to meet the globally agreed goal of staying within a temperature increase of 1.5°C or well below 2°C above preindustrial levels, without intending to prescribe specific policies.

This article quantifies the aggregate potential of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions in 2030 from the assumed full implementation of major international cooperative initiatives (ICIs). To this end, a methodology is proposed to aggregate emission reduction goals of the most significant and potentially impactful global initiatives. We identified the extent to which reductions are additional to national policies, assuming these actions do not displace climate actions elsewhere, and accounted for overlap ranges between the ICIs. The analysis was conducted for 17 initiatives, selected from an original list of over 300 with a series of testing criteria, across eight sectors and ten major emitting economies. These initiatives include cities, regions, businesses, and other subnational and non-state actors, cooperating with each other and sometimes working in partnership with national governments or other international organizations. Our analysis shows that the combined achievement of initiatives' reduction goals could reduce global emissions in 2030 by 18–21 GtCO 2e/year in addition to current national policies (total of 60–63 GtCO 2e/year), down to 39–44 GtCO 2e/year. If delivered fully, reductions from these 17 initiatives would help move the global emissions trajectory within the range of a 2°C-consistent emission pathway by 2030, although a significant gap would remain to reduce emissions to a 1.5°C-consistent pathway. Key policy insights We propose a transparent and robust methodology to aggregate GHG mitigation potential of ICIs, accounting for overlaps between ICIs. If major initiatives meet their goals and do not change the course of other existing climate actions, they could make large contributions by 2030 towards global efforts to stay within the range of a below 2°C-consistent emission pathway by 2030. The full suite of existing initiatives beyond those in this analysis could further increase ambition towards achieving the Paris Agreement's temperature goals. Cities and regions, businesses and ...