Suchergebnisse

This article investigates the determinants of currency crises in Turkey. It analyzes the two major currency crises of 1994 and 2000–2001 in the light of the existing theoretical models. The present study uses logit, probit, and limited dependent models to explain the currency crises in the post–capital account liberalization era. The results obtained from the three approaches are generally consistent and the coefficients obtained for the explanatory variables generally have the same sign. The findings suggest that the currency crises in Turkey are associated with global liquidity conditions, fiscal imbalances, capital outflows, and banking sector weaknesses.

The purpose of this article is to explore the future of the EU's Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) in terms of its objectives. In order to do this, the reasons behind this policy tool, its structure, and the changes it brought to the EU's relationships with its neighbours are analyzed. The article investigates the areas in which the ENP has been successful and pinpoints the deficiencies which have lead to its failure in other areas. The analysis concludes that the ENP has enhanced the EU's role in the international arena and improved the credibility of its foreign, security and defence policies despite the fact that it is still a very new policy. Nevertheless, the policy is by no means perfect and there exists scope for further improvement in terms of its effectiveness. ; peer-reviewed

This study aims at investigating the nature of the causal relationship between immigration and two macroeconomic indicators, GDP per capita and unemployment, in Sweden using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure and Granger-causality within vector error correction model (VECM) based on annual data spanning the period between 1980 and 2004. Results of the ARDL bounds test are supportive of the theory that the variables are in a long-run equilibrium level relationship. On the other hand, results of the Granger-causality tests support the existence of a long-run, bidirectional causality between immigration and GDP per capita. However, results do not support the hypothesis that immigration causes unemployment. On the contrary, evidence suggests that unemployment causes immigration.

This article aims at identifying the factors behind the Mexican Peso Crisis of 1994-1995 through building a probit model incorporating 20 monthly macroeconomic, political, and financial sector variables from 1970:1 - 1995:1. As a result of the probit regressions, strong evidence emerges that the significant variables are political instability, foreign exchange reserves, domestic credit/GDP, lending and deposit rate spread, national savings, and foreign direct investment/GDP. Evidence further indicates that the signs of the variables are mostly in line with our expectations, with the exception of inflation, bank reserves/bank assets, export growth, and lending and deposit rate spread. ; Bu makale 1994-1995 Meksika Pezo Krizi'nin ardındaki faktörleri aylık 20 makroekonomik, siyasi ve finans sektörü değişkenleriyle oluşturulan bir probit modeli kullanarak tespit etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Probit regresyonunun neticesinde anlamlı değişkenler olarak siyasi istikrarsızlık, döviz rezervleri, yerel kredi/GSMH, borç ve mevduat oranı arasındaki fark, ulusal tasarruflar ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım/GSMH değerleri alınmıştır. Bulgular, değişkenlerin, enflasyon, banka rezervleri/banka aktifleri, ihracat büyüme oranı ve borç ve mevduat oranı arasındaki fark haricinde beklenildiği şekilde ortaya çıktığını göstermektedir.

This present article aims at explaining the exchange rate movements in the Pakistani foreign exchange market using the market micro structure approach, which has not been applied to date due to the unavailability of high-frequency data on the order flow for Pakistan. The novelty of the present article is that it uses publicly unavailable micro data obtained from the State Bank of Pakistan and that it employs ARCH/GARCH regression methods in addition to the OLS technique suggested by the existing literature. Strong evidence emerged suggesting that order flow is a key variable that explains the movements in exchange rate over a short term in the case of Pakistan.

This article revisits the relationship between corruption and Foreign Direct
Investment inflows in a panel of 42 countries from 1984 to 2012 using pooled
mean group estimator in a dynamic heterogeneous panel setting using
Westerlund and ARDL panel cointegration tests where the estimations are
carried out by three different estimators: the pooled mean group (PMG), mean
group (MG), and the dynamic fixed effect (DFE) estimators in order to examine
both the long- and short-term effects of corruption on FDI inflows. The
results suggest that corruption has a positive impact on FDI inflows in the
case of Asia and Africa; and a negative impact in the case of Latin America.