Comments on: "Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates"
In: International journal of forecasting, Band 29, Heft 4, S. 751-753
ISSN: 0169-2070
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In: International journal of forecasting, Band 29, Heft 4, S. 751-753
ISSN: 0169-2070
In: Revue économique, Band 61, Heft 3, S. 645-655
ISSN: 1950-6694
Résumé Dans la littérature économétrique récente, le rôle des variables financières pour la prévision des fluctuations macroéconomiques est ambigu. Les résultats empiriques dépendent, entre autres, des variables considérées, des modèles utilisés ou de l'échantillon étudié. Toutefois, certains faits stylisés apparaissent clairement. Dans cet article, les différentes variables financières sont discutées, les principaux modèles économétriques sont esquissés et une synthèse des résultats récents est proposée.
In: Revue économique, Band 60, Heft 3, S. 703-712
ISSN: 1950-6694
Résumé L'actualité économique récente est venue souligner avec force que les cycles économiques n'étaient pas morts. Dans cet article, nous mettons en évidence l'intérêt pour les conjoncturistes d'une datation des cycles, nous proposons une typologie des différents cycles considérés dans l'analyse empirique conjoncturelle, puis nous présentons quelques résultats récents relatifs à la datation des points de retournement en zone euro.
In: IMF Working Papers v.Working Paper No. 15/20
This paper develops a new monthly World Trade Leading Indicator (WTLI) that relies onnonparametric and parametric approaches. Compared to the CPB World Trade Monitor'sbenchmark indicator for global trade the WTLI captures turning points in global trade with an averagelead between 2 and 3 months. We also show that this cyclical indicator is able to track the annualgrowth rate in global trade, suggesting that the recent slowdown is due in part to certain cyclicalfactors. This new tool can provide policy makers with valuable foresight into the future direction ofeconomic activity by tracking worl
In: CAMA Working Paper No. 60/2020
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Working paper
In: Banque de France Working Paper April 2019, WP #717
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Working paper
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In: Housing Markets in Europe, S. 39-60
In: Journal of business cycle measurement and analysis: a joint publication of OECD and CIRET, Band 2005, Heft 3, S. 353-371
ISSN: 1729-3626
In: Journal of business cycle measurement and analysis: a joint publication of OECD and CIRET, Band 2004, Heft 2, S. 193-225
ISSN: 1729-3626
In: International journal of forecasting, Band 38, Heft 2, S. 527-528
ISSN: 0169-2070
In: International journal of forecasting, Band 30, Heft 3, S. 517-519
ISSN: 0169-2070
In: Housing Markets in Europe, S. 105-128
In: Financial and monetary policy studies volume 46
In: Financial and monetary policy studies, 46
This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.