FOCUSES ON THE FUNCTIONS OF CONVENTIONAL MILITARY CAPABILITY IN SOVIET FOREIGN POLICY AND ARGUES THAT, GIVEN THE SALT FRAMEWORK, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVENTIONAL INTERACTION IS MORE LIKELY THAN NUCLEAR, TO CHANGE THE POLITICAL CONFIGURATION OF THE GLOBE.
Military relations between the United States and the Soviet Union over the past decade exhibit an apparent paradox: professed mutual interests in parity yielding in practice to a competitive military buildup. The paper examines four hypothetical explanations—denoted respectively as the hypotheses of mirage, momentum, victory, and spillover—in the context of conventional military force development. While certain valid elements are identified in each hypothesis, the author concludes that it is the appeal of spillover, the non-fighting functions of conventional military advantage, which despite a mixed payoff may be regarded as the most significant determinant of Soviet behavior. The evolution of force levels and military budgets, and the political purposes and activities of the U.S.S.R. in the First and Third Worlds, provide the data for analysis.