Suchergebnisse

Assessing the Threat of Weapons of Mass Destruction is a collection of papers delivered at the Nato Advanced Research Workshop of the same name, which examined the role of independent scientists in assessing WMD threat. Such threat assessment has a profound impact on the policies of governments and international organizations. It raises numerous questions. What exactly is an independent scientist and what pressures threaten their independence? What role do cultural dependencies play within assessments? ow do independent scientists produce threat assessments and what are the widely differing models used by different countries to facilitate the input of such assessments into policy? To address these and other issues, an interdisciplinary group of eminentexperts and policy makers from twelve countries gathered to discuss ways in which the technical advice of independent scientists could be strengthened to aid governments and international organizations in forming policies in response to perceived threats. With papers covering topics ranging from policy making to chemical and biological weapons, nuclear threats and breaking the threat/counter threat cycle, this book illuminates an area of vital importance to the security and stability of relations between tates, and the maintenance of internationally agreed norms.

Background In the past, strains of Staphylococcus aureus have evolved, expanded, made a marked clinical impact and then disappeared over several years. Faced with rising meticillin-resistant S aureus (MRSA) rates, UK government-supported infection control interventions were rolled out in Oxford Radcliffe Hospitals NHS Trust from 2006 onwards. Methods Using an electronic Database, the authors identified isolation of MRS among 611 434 hospital inpatients admitted to acute hospitals in Oxford, UK, 1 April 1998 to 30 June 2010. Isolation rates were modelled using segmented negative binomial regression for three groups of isolates: from blood cultures, from samples suggesting invasion (eg, cerebrospinal fluid, joint fluid, pus samples) and from surface swabs (eg, from wounds). Findings MRSA isolation rates rose rapidly from 1998 to the end of 2003 (annual increase from blood cultures 23%, 95% CI 16% to 30%), and then declined. The decline accelerated from mid-2006 onwards (annual decrease post-2006 38% from blood cultures, 95% CI 29% to 45%, p=0.003 vs previous decline). Rates of meticillin-sensitive S aureus changed little by comparison, with no evidence for declines 2006 onward (p=0.40); by 2010, sensitive S aureus was far more common than MRSA (blood cultures: 2.9 vs 0.25; invasive samples 14.7 vs 2.0 per 10 000 bedstays). Interestingly, trends in isolation of erythromycin-sensitive and resistant MRSA differed. Erythromycin-sensitive strains rose significantly faster (eg, from blood cultures p=0.002), and declined significantly more slowly (p=0.002), than erythromycin-resistant strains (global p<0.0001). Bacterial typing suggests this reflects differential spread of two major UK MRSA strains (ST22/36), ST36 having declined markedly 2006-2010, with ST22 becoming the dominant MRSA strain. Conclusions MRSA isolation rates were falling before recent intensification of infection-control measures. This, together with strain-specific changes in MRSA isolation, strongly suggests that incompletely understood biological ...

ABSTRACT. In the last two decades the use of species distribution modeling (SDM) for the study and management of marine species has increased dramatically. The availability of predictor variables on a global scale and the ease of use of SDM techniques have resulted in a proliferation of research on the topic of species distribution in the deep sea. Translation of research projects into management tools that can be used to make decisions in the face of changing climate and increasing exploitation of deep-sea resources has been less rapid but necessary. The goal of this workshop was to discuss methods and variables for modeling species distributions in deep-sea habitats and produce standards that can be used to judge SDMs that may be useful to meet management and conservation goals. During the workshop, approaches to modeling and environmental data were discussed and guidelines developed including the desire that 1) environmental variables should be chosen for ecological significance a priori; 2) the scale and accuracy of environmental data should be considered in choosing a modeling method; 3) when possible proxy variables such as depth should be avoided if causal variables are available; 4) models with statistically robust and rigorous outputs are preferred, but not always possible; and 5) model validation is important. Although general guidelines for SDMs were developed, in most cases management issues and objectives should be considered when designing a modeling project. In particular, the trade-off between model complexity and researcher's ability to communicate input data, modeling method, results and uncertainty is an important consideration for the target audience. RÉSUMÉ. Au cours des deux dernières décennies, le recours à la modélisation de la répartition des espèces pour étudier et gérer les espèces marines a considérablement augmenté. La disponibilité des variables prédictives à l'échelle mondiale et la convivialité de ces techniques de modélisation ont entraîné la multiplication des recherches sur la ...